So, just a quick update of things.
First off, for those that aren't aware, in the FCS playoff field, 24 teams are taken. There are 10 conference autobids (conference champion including possible tiebreakers) and they then pick 14 additional at-large teams. Those 24 teams are the playoff field.
Then the committee takes all 24 teams, and picks their top 8 (doesn't matter if they're auto-qualifiers or not, that's only for getting into the playoffs). Those 8 are the top 8 seeds. The top 8 seeds get a first round bye and a second round home game. Any time a seeded team plays a non-seeded team throughout the playoffs, it's hosted at the seeded team's home. If two seeded teams play, highest seed gets to host.
The remaining 16 non-seeded teams are matched up with each other based on proximity but avoiding regular season conference rematches. The two teams will have submitted "bids" to the NCAA at the start of the playoff process essentially saying "we'll give you X much money". Teams with higher average attendance can usually bid higher than ones with lower attendance, due to increased ticket revenue, but if a smaller/lower attendance school really wants it or happens to have a large bank account, they can bid as high as they want and take it over a school that would usually win.
So, if we want a home playoff game, we either need to get seeded, or we need to win the bid for the first round game (two years ago, we did not submit a bid and therefore Dayton won it and we played there...if we'd submitted something resembling a decent bid, we likely would have hosted Dayton).
Anyway, my usual reference point, the AGS poll, is out for this week and as predicted (due to our win and the losses by Elon and South Dakota) we have moved up to #11.
The teams that are ahead of us that we could feasibly pass are:
#10 Weber State
#9 Stony Brook
#8 Southern Utah
#6 Sam Houston State
According to Massey Ratings, the chances of the last games are:
Weber State has a 96% chance to beat Idaho State
Stony Brook has a 62% chance to beat Maine
Southern Utah has a 66% chance to beat Northern Arizona
Wofford has a 1% chance of beating FBS South Carolina (problem is, they probably won't drop much unless they lose like 80-3 or something)
Sam Houston State has a 99% chance of beating Houston Baptist
So, to get to #8, we need to beat SIU (duh) and have three teams ahead of us lose. Stony Brook and Southern Utah are our best bets. Wofford will lose, but idk if they'll drop enough for us to get past them. The other two are fairly unlikely. So, I don't know if we can quite get up to #8 or not. It'll be close. And the AGS poll isn't perfect. They picked all the seeded teams correctly last year but swapped the seeds for #7 and #8, so if we finish #9 and they happen to not be quite as perfect and the committee swaps #8 and #9, we could be in it.
Still...all we can do is win ours. Beat SIU...beat them by a lot...and let the chips fall where they may.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000