Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

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yokedneck
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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by yokedneck » Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:16 pm

Neckfansince71 wrote:The next game against SIU is truly a "payback" ball game! If I am a player its one game I could never ever forget! ;) jc
End to last year was so brutal especially for seniors. Hoping necks take care of business and can capture a home play off game.

Tom

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Neckfansince71
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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by Neckfansince71 » Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:52 pm

They have got to dot all the eyes, and cross all the T's this time! The rest will take care of itself. This is a well coached football team with a lot of desire and emotion ready to be unleashed. I would be happy as a clam if we host a second round game and I would definitely make the drive to be in the stands! ;) jc

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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by huskie » Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:06 pm

Just Win Baby!!!

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ST_Lawson
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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by ST_Lawson » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:05 am

So, just a quick update of things.

First off, for those that aren't aware, in the FCS playoff field, 24 teams are taken. There are 10 conference autobids (conference champion including possible tiebreakers) and they then pick 14 additional at-large teams. Those 24 teams are the playoff field.
Then the committee takes all 24 teams, and picks their top 8 (doesn't matter if they're auto-qualifiers or not, that's only for getting into the playoffs). Those 8 are the top 8 seeds. The top 8 seeds get a first round bye and a second round home game. Any time a seeded team plays a non-seeded team throughout the playoffs, it's hosted at the seeded team's home. If two seeded teams play, highest seed gets to host.

The remaining 16 non-seeded teams are matched up with each other based on proximity but avoiding regular season conference rematches. The two teams will have submitted "bids" to the NCAA at the start of the playoff process essentially saying "we'll give you X much money". Teams with higher average attendance can usually bid higher than ones with lower attendance, due to increased ticket revenue, but if a smaller/lower attendance school really wants it or happens to have a large bank account, they can bid as high as they want and take it over a school that would usually win.

So, if we want a home playoff game, we either need to get seeded, or we need to win the bid for the first round game (two years ago, we did not submit a bid and therefore Dayton won it and we played there...if we'd submitted something resembling a decent bid, we likely would have hosted Dayton).

Anyway, my usual reference point, the AGS poll, is out for this week and as predicted (due to our win and the losses by Elon and South Dakota) we have moved up to #11.

The teams that are ahead of us that we could feasibly pass are:
#10 Weber State
#9 Stony Brook
#8 Southern Utah
#7 Wofford
#6 Sam Houston State

According to Massey Ratings, the chances of the last games are:
Weber State has a 96% chance to beat Idaho State
Stony Brook has a 62% chance to beat Maine
Southern Utah has a 66% chance to beat Northern Arizona
Wofford has a 1% chance of beating FBS South Carolina (problem is, they probably won't drop much unless they lose like 80-3 or something)
Sam Houston State has a 99% chance of beating Houston Baptist

So, to get to #8, we need to beat SIU (duh) and have three teams ahead of us lose. Stony Brook and Southern Utah are our best bets. Wofford will lose, but idk if they'll drop enough for us to get past them. The other two are fairly unlikely. So, I don't know if we can quite get up to #8 or not. It'll be close. And the AGS poll isn't perfect. They picked all the seeded teams correctly last year but swapped the seeds for #7 and #8, so if we finish #9 and they happen to not be quite as perfect and the committee swaps #8 and #9, we could be in it.

Still...all we can do is win ours. Beat SIU...beat them by a lot...and let the chips fall where they may.
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sealhall74
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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by sealhall74 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:49 pm

Would it not make more sense and cents from the NCAA's perspective to have each pair of teams in the first round to bid against each other to see which hosts?
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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by wiu712 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:09 pm

STATS' PROJECTED PAIRINGS:

Top 8 seeds receive first-round byes

Colgate-Stony Brook winner at No. 1 seed James Madison

Northern Arizona-Weber State winner at No. 8 seed South Dakota State

Duquesne-South Dakota winner at No. 5 seed Sam Houston State

Western Illinois-Western Carolina winner at No. 4 seed Central Arkansas

San Diego-Southern Utah winner at No. 3 seed North Dakota State

Furman-Kennesaw State winner at No. 6 seed Elon

Monmouth-Delaware winner at No. 7 seed Wofford

Samford-Northern Iowa winner at No. 2 seed Jacksonville State

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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by sealhall74 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:05 am

wiu712 wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:09 pm
STATS' PROJECTED PAIRINGS:

Top 8 seeds receive first-round byes

Colgate-Stony Brook winner at No. 1 seed James Madison

Northern Arizona-Weber State winner at No. 8 seed South Dakota State

Duquesne-South Dakota winner at No. 5 seed Sam Houston State

Western Illinois-Western Carolina winner at No. 4 seed Central Arkansas

San Diego-Southern Utah winner at No. 3 seed North Dakota State

Furman-Kennesaw State winner at No. 6 seed Elon

Monmouth-Delaware winner at No. 7 seed Wofford

Samford-Northern Iowa winner at No. 2 seed Jacksonville State
Hypothetical here with this bracket:

USD and WIU BOTH win their first round games AND second round games.
Who hosts the USD vs WIU quarterfinal?
Rock's bronze rock will rock us on forever.

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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by ST_Lawson » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:33 am

sealhall74 wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:05 am
Hypothetical here with this bracket:

USD and WIU BOTH win their first round games AND second round games.
Who hosts the USD vs WIU quarterfinal?
Highest bidder. Schools submit bids for each round.

Also, here's the bracket projection based on the most recent AGS poll:

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wiu712
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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by wiu712 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:57 am

ST_Lawson wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:33 am
Highest bidder. Schools submit bids for each round.
Hypothetical Question: Who hosts if neither competing team submits a bid ????

This concept of having to bid to host a playoff game seems very backwards to me. Instead, the NCAA should be paying these home sites for the use of their facilities. The NCAA is using university-owned property for their own financial gain.

We had a much better format back in the 90's when the 16-team field was seeded 1-16. And the team with the higher seed would be the host.

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Re: Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Post by sealhall74 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:05 am

wiu712 wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:57 am
ST_Lawson wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:33 am
Highest bidder. Schools submit bids for each round.
Hypothetical Question: Who hosts if neither competing team submits a bid ????

This concept of having to bid to host a playoff game seems very backwards to me. Instead, the NCAA should be paying these home sites for the use of their facilities. The NCAA is using university-owned property for their own financial gain.

We had a much better format back in the 90's when the 16-team field was seeded 1-16. And the team with the higher seed would be the host.
I mostly agree. But the cost of team travel and availability of lodging facilities which probably have to be reserved well in advance are also factors which come in to play.
Rock's bronze rock will rock us on forever.

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