As expected, our Leathernecks are moving up in the polls following the win at NIU. Here's where some of the polls have the MVFC teams and other teams we've played this season ranked currently (previous week's ranking in parentheses)
STATS Poll: http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs
1. North Dakota State (1)
8. Western Illinois (13)
12. Northern Iowa (14)
13. Eastern Illinois (18)
15. South Dakota State (15)
18. Illinois State (9)
20. Youngstown State (20)
24. Indiana State (NR)
ORV
Northern Arizona (48 votes)
Southern Illinois (9 votes)
And the one that I tend to trust the most when it comes to playoff selection, the AGS poll: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... ost2383078
1. North Dakota State (1)
6. Western Illinois (8)
13. Northern Iowa (13)
15. Youngstown State (16)
16. Eastern Illinois (19)
17. South Dakota State (15)
19. Illinois State (12)
21. Indiana State (NR)
ORV
34. Southern Illinois (33)
37. Northern Arizona (26)
2016 Polls - Week 4
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
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Western_101
- Posts: 1197
- Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 12:09 pm
- Location: Morton, IL
Seems about right.
Northern Illinois needs to win some games, likewise for Northern Arizona. Both of those teams are better than what their respective record indicates. However, the further one gets into a season, at some point the realization has to be made that, in fact, a team's record is what it is, and is what they are.
Northern Illinois needs to win some games, likewise for Northern Arizona. Both of those teams are better than what their respective record indicates. However, the further one gets into a season, at some point the realization has to be made that, in fact, a team's record is what it is, and is what they are.
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sealhall74
- Posts: 5779
- Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:18 pm
- Location: Wherever, Windblows
Who are the AGS Poll voters?
We are #4 in Massey Composite right now. According to that same Massey composite poll, two teams are real conundrums for the pollsters right now. One is Coastal Carolina and the other is our foe this week, SDSU. Widespread disagreement about those teams.
http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm
I fired up my pure statistics-based conference ranking over the weekend. It is a little early to put much stock in it, but it does point to one noticeable observation: the teams are packed fairly tightly right now. In the past, NDSU would be way out in front. Not this year. They have come back to the pack a bit.
What my chart also shows is that we have some work to do on pass defense and SDSU excels in pass offense. Not sure how that is going to play out but I will be seeing it all unfold live and in-person.
We are #4 in Massey Composite right now. According to that same Massey composite poll, two teams are real conundrums for the pollsters right now. One is Coastal Carolina and the other is our foe this week, SDSU. Widespread disagreement about those teams.
http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm
I fired up my pure statistics-based conference ranking over the weekend. It is a little early to put much stock in it, but it does point to one noticeable observation: the teams are packed fairly tightly right now. In the past, NDSU would be way out in front. Not this year. They have come back to the pack a bit.
What my chart also shows is that we have some work to do on pass defense and SDSU excels in pass offense. Not sure how that is going to play out but I will be seeing it all unfold live and in-person.
Embrace the pace of the race.
A group of AGS members who have been around a while, know FCS football really well, and spend, on average, 2-3 hours every weekend watching games, looking at who the teams have beaten and who they lost to, and by how much. I've thought about applying to be a voter, but I don't really have the time to put into it at this point.sealhall74 wrote:Who are the AGS Poll voters?
The AGS poll is reputable enough that it gets included in the Massey Ratings (although sometimes it takes a little time for him to add it into his ranking system). It's not up in this week's yet, but here was last week's ratings: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/arch/co ... 2016-3.htm
And you can see that it's listed there.
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
I voted in the AGS poll several years running, its time consuming and pretty fair if you have a off the wall or Homer vote they will question it and reject if you cant explain it well and thought out. I stopped because I just couldnt spend the time required to get it right.
funny thing is now that im not voting I actually find myself watching more FCS games or going back ad watching others. It is kind of fun to do though
With that said to me its the most accurate of any poll out there, the Coaches poll is usually a joke
funny thing is now that im not voting I actually find myself watching more FCS games or going back ad watching others. It is kind of fun to do though
With that said to me its the most accurate of any poll out there, the Coaches poll is usually a joke
Another thing about the FCS poll is that many of the people who submit polls will then post them after the poll has been released (click through the link I put with it in the first post to go read the thread). If you have a team that most people think is quite a bit too high or quite a bit too low, you better have a damn good reason for it and be able to defend your position. There's a transparency there, people do their research and stand behind their poll submissions.
And like TJBison said, the Coaches Poll is completely useless. In a few instances it might be coaches filling it out, although it's usually some assistant or intern in the office and the chances of them knowing anything close to what the majority of the AGS pollsters know about FCS football is slim to none. And if it is a coach filling it out, then usually their focus is WAY too narrow to effectively rank teams outside of their area of expertise. The coach's job is to focus on their opponents that season...the teams in the conference plus the OOC teams they play. I'm sure coaches also keep up with a few of the places where they used to coach and places where people they know really well coach, but there's still a huge swath of teams that would likely get zero attention from a head coach (which is entirely the way it should be). I don't want Coach Fisher worrying about if William and Mary is slightly better than Harvard or Albany, and he shouldn't have to. It's not a head coach's job to worry about that stuff, unless all the regular season games are done and it looks likely that we might play one of them in the playoffs.
And like TJBison said, the Coaches Poll is completely useless. In a few instances it might be coaches filling it out, although it's usually some assistant or intern in the office and the chances of them knowing anything close to what the majority of the AGS pollsters know about FCS football is slim to none. And if it is a coach filling it out, then usually their focus is WAY too narrow to effectively rank teams outside of their area of expertise. The coach's job is to focus on their opponents that season...the teams in the conference plus the OOC teams they play. I'm sure coaches also keep up with a few of the places where they used to coach and places where people they know really well coach, but there's still a huge swath of teams that would likely get zero attention from a head coach (which is entirely the way it should be). I don't want Coach Fisher worrying about if William and Mary is slightly better than Harvard or Albany, and he shouldn't have to. It's not a head coach's job to worry about that stuff, unless all the regular season games are done and it looks likely that we might play one of them in the playoffs.
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
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letsgonecks
- Posts: 980
- Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:19 am
I've always been a big follower of STATS (formerly sportsnetwork) and even years we were tanking, I still paid close attention to the polls and FCS games.
Never really paid much attention to ASG, but think I will going forward. I watch a lot of FCS football and follow match-ups and scores throughout the FCS. I don't know all, but have a good grasp and sometimes have no idea how people on STATS and Coaches Polls are voting.
For instance, I get you have Sam Houston number 2 to start the season, but should they stay because they haven't lost? I say no if others have done more to pass them. Their best win thus far is beating Houston Baptist on the road 52-16 and HB's best game is a 24-20 win at Texas Southern. I'll give them a little more credit if they win on the road this week at SFA.
I don't see how Chattanooga is in front of us. I get they started 6 and have only moved up 1 spot going 4-0, but their best win was at home beating Samford 41-21. Samford does have a good win coming at Central Arkansas who just beat FBS Arkansas State. We beat #13 on the road by 17 and they have an FBS win, we beat a good NAU who's had a really tough schedule, and then we have an FBS win on the road.
My Top 10
1. NDSU
2. EWU (great wins and only loss in OT against NDSU without Kupp in the second half)
3. Jacksonville State
4. WIU (would move us past Jacksonville State if we win this week on the road at SDSU)
5. Sam Houston
6. Richmond
7. Chattanooga
8. Citadel
9. Cal Poly
10 EIU
No James Madison in the top 10. They have 3 high margin wins, but against teams who have combined for 0 DIV 1 wins. Their best win was on the road against Maine 31-20. Maine has 2 FBS losses including a close 21-24 loss to a UConn who's been competitive so far.
Never really paid much attention to ASG, but think I will going forward. I watch a lot of FCS football and follow match-ups and scores throughout the FCS. I don't know all, but have a good grasp and sometimes have no idea how people on STATS and Coaches Polls are voting.
For instance, I get you have Sam Houston number 2 to start the season, but should they stay because they haven't lost? I say no if others have done more to pass them. Their best win thus far is beating Houston Baptist on the road 52-16 and HB's best game is a 24-20 win at Texas Southern. I'll give them a little more credit if they win on the road this week at SFA.
I don't see how Chattanooga is in front of us. I get they started 6 and have only moved up 1 spot going 4-0, but their best win was at home beating Samford 41-21. Samford does have a good win coming at Central Arkansas who just beat FBS Arkansas State. We beat #13 on the road by 17 and they have an FBS win, we beat a good NAU who's had a really tough schedule, and then we have an FBS win on the road.
My Top 10
1. NDSU
2. EWU (great wins and only loss in OT against NDSU without Kupp in the second half)
3. Jacksonville State
4. WIU (would move us past Jacksonville State if we win this week on the road at SDSU)
5. Sam Houston
6. Richmond
7. Chattanooga
8. Citadel
9. Cal Poly
10 EIU
No James Madison in the top 10. They have 3 high margin wins, but against teams who have combined for 0 DIV 1 wins. Their best win was on the road against Maine 31-20. Maine has 2 FBS losses including a close 21-24 loss to a UConn who's been competitive so far.