VS 
Date/Time: Saturday, November 5 at 1 PM
Location:Western’s own Hanson Field
Weather Forecast (as of 11/2): High of 68 forecasted, 65 at kickoff, ~50% humidity, partly cloudy, very little wind (how did we get so lucky with amazing weather all season?)
TV: Like all MVFC matchups this season, available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Links:
- Stat Tracking for the game: http://www.sidearmstats.com/wiu/football/
- ISU’s Message Board (remember, don’t be a troll): http://www.redbirdfan.net/forum/viewforum.php?f=8
- ISU’s Football Website: http://goredbirds.com/schedule.aspx?path=football
- ISU’s Athletics Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ISURedbirds/
- ISU’s Football Twitter: https://twitter.com/RedbirdFB
The Rebdirds are currently 4-5 overall, 2-4 in the MVFC.
They have wins over:
- Valparaiso (50-13)
- Northwestern, FBS (9-7)
- Southern Illinois (31-28)
- South Dakota State (38-21)
- Eastern Illinois (24-21)
- Indiana State (34-31)
- North Dakota State (31-10)
- Youngstown State (20-6)
The History
You want history?...we got history. This is the longest-played rivalry for Western, with this Saturday’s game being our 99th meeting going back to 1904. We lead the series with an overall record of 50-45-3. Western and Illinois State have played at least one game every year (except 1973) back to 1923. Not sure what happened in ‘73...we were both classified as DII independent at that point, so it must have just been a quirk of the schedule where we couldn’t make the game work. Last year was the first time we played ISU twice in the same season. Our last win over the Redbirds was 2010, so they have a 6-game win streak going against us currently.
Team Stat Analysis
Here’s the team’s stat comparisons courtesy of the NCAA.
So, looking at the comparisons between the two teams, overall we have the better offense and they have the better defense. We have the 22nd ranked passing offense going against their 53rd ranked pass defense, and reversing it, their 49th ranked passing offense going against our 118th ranked pass defense. On the ground, we have the 55th best rushing offense against their 42nd best rushing defense, and they have a 61st ranked rushing offense going against our 58th best rushing defense.
Our O-line appears to be better, with the 21st best “Tackles for loss Allowed” ranking, as opposed to their 102nd rank. They’re much better than we are at getting sacks (28th vs 112th), but then again, so was South Dakota, and they had zero. They’ve only been assessed 5.11 penalties per game this season, 19th best in the FCS, so they’re unlikely to really shoot themselves in the foot in that regard. We’re much butter dealing with fumbles (both on us losing them when we have the ball and with us gaining them when opponents have the ball).
Key Opposition Players
QB Jake Kolbe - has thrown for 220.4 yards per game this season with 13 TDs and 6 interceptions. He has an overall completion percentage of 63.9%.
WR Anthony Warrum - catches for 74.6 yards per game and has 6 receiving TDs. He’s their “long ball” receiver, averaging 16 yards per catch.
WR Spencer Schnell - actually has more receptions than Warrum (45 vs 42) but half the yardage. He averages 37.1 yards per game, but is more of their “short toss” receiver, averaging 7.4 yards per catch. He has 1 receiving TD.
RB James Robinson - took over primary rushing duties after the season-ending injury to starting RB George Moreira. Robinson averages 41 yards per game and has 2 TDs.
RB Jamal Towns - only averages 39.2 yards per game and has 1 TD, but mostly that’s because he’d been more of a backup RB for most of the season. Broke out with 136 yards and a TD last weekend against SDSU. A little guy for a RB, 5’6” and 175 lbs...think J.C. Baker-sized.
LB Alejandro Rivera - The team’s tackles leader with 75 including 1 sack, 1 interception, and 1 fumble recovery.
S Alec Kocour - is the leader of a defensive backfield that, at times, has been very good against the pass. He has 73 tackles, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, and 3 QB hurries.
LB B.J. Bello - good at getting pressure on the QB, Bello has 55 tackles including 7.5 for loss (5 sacks) as well as 6 QB hurries and 2 forced fumbles
DB Davontae Harris - #1 in the conference in pass breakups, he has 42 total tackles, 2.5 for loss, 10 pass breakups and 1 interception.
DB DraShane Glass - Leads the Redbird defense with 3 interceptions as well as 42 tackles, 5 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery.
PK Sean Slattery - 11 for 13 on the season, but a perfect 7-7 since MVFC play started. Overall, he’s hit 7-7 from the 20’s, 2-2 from the 30’s, 1-3 from the 40’s and 1-1 from the 50s, hitting a 50-yarder against SIU. He’s also 25 for 27 in XPs and handles kickoff duties.
The Game
In case you couldn’t tell from my listing of the key opposition players, I kinda focused on the defense...specifically their secondary. They’ve been somewhat “up-and-down”, but when they play to the higher end of their abilities, they’re probably the best defensive backfield in the conference. They did allow 430 passing yards to SDSU last weekend, but also forced 3 interceptions including a 92-yard pick-6 in the last 5 minutes of the game to put them up by 17 and essentially seal the victory.
Where the Redbirds have been weak this season is in their O-line. I don’t know if they’ve been hit with injuries, or just aren’t playing that great, but they’re 102nd in the FCS in tackles for loss allowed and 114th in sacks allowed. If our strong D-line and DBs can get pressure on the QB, we probably won’t have to worry too much about many Kolbe->Warrum long passes.
When we have the ball, our focus will probably want to be using the run to set up the pass. Now, they are giving up more passing yards than rushing yards, but I think that’s just due to a couple of things...the “up-and-down” play of the DBs that I mentioned, and giving up all those yards to SDSU....so I do think they are better than the numbers indicate. Heavy doses of McShane and Gilmore to move the chains and occasionally set up big passes to Lenoir/Borsellino/Lesure and we should be successful at putting points on the board.
If McGuire can keep his passes out of the hands of the ISU DB’s, I think we’ll do pretty well this game, but it’ll be a close one (do we know any other kind of football?). It’ll probably be tied up late in the 4th and we’ll go ahead with a TD with like 45 seconds left or something and our defense will hold them off for the last few plays. Probably something in the neighborhood of 31-24 is likely.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
