Playoff Chances

[Neck4Life2016]

Besides winning next week... what needs to happen across the FCS to get us into the playoffs?

[ST_Lawson]

Well, we'll probably have to wait to see how some other games finish up, but for sure, I know we want to root for South Dakota State to beat Northern Iowa next week.

NDSU, SDSU, and YSU all won (or will win...NDSU is up 41-10 in the 4th currently), so they'll all be in the playoffs.
Beyond that, we'll probably only see maybe one more MVFC team in the playoffs and here's the options (assuming we win next weekend).

Western Illinois at 7-4 overall and 4-4 in the conference.
Northern Iowa (if they beat SDSU next week) at 6-5 overall and 5-3 in the conference, including wins over us, SDSU, and Iowa State, as well as no blowout losses...all losses were by less than a TD and against the toughest schedule in the FCS this year.
Illinois State at 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the conference, including wins over us, SDSU, and Northwestern.

Both UNI and ISUr are playing their best football right now (ISU blew out MSU today 37-0 and has a bye week next weekend). Since both UNI and ISUr have wins over us, we don't want the distinction to be close. We need to beat SIU by quite a bit and hope that SDSU destroys UNI. If UNI wins, I don't know that we have much of a chance at all, regardless of what happens at SIU.

[sealhall74]

I would really like to think that the Jacks have a little extra incentive going for them next week by playing for a seed position. With a win, I think they are certainly worthy of it. Hard to believe, but they put up 630 yards of offense on the Yotes today and 400 of it was on the ground.

[Western_101]

I only see 4 Valley teams getting in NDSU, SDSU, YSU and:

Not ISU. ISU has 6 wins, one was over non scholly Valpo (more like a DIII school) and of the remaining 5 wins only two were over programs with winning records.

That leaves UNI and WIU.

If UNI beats SDSU for sure UNI will get the last bid. I believe that to be true even if WIU beats SIU to get to reach 7 wins. UNI's signature wins, and SOS are just so much more compelling.

It would be weird getting in last year with 6 and not this year with 7.

[ST_Lawson]

I only see 4 Valley teams getting in NDSU, SDSU, YSU and:

Not ISU. ISU has 6 wins, one was over non scholly Valpo (more like a DIII school) and of the remaining 5 wins only two were over programs with winning records.

That leaves UNI and WIU.

If UNI beats SDSU for sure UNI will get the last bid. I believe that to be true even if WIU beats SIU to get to reach 7 wins. UNI's signature wins, and SOS are just so much more compelling.

It would be weird getting in last year with 6 and not this year with 7.

Yup, I think you're pretty much right on there. If UNI wins, they make it in, we stay home. If UNI loses and we win, we should make it in, but I'd still be sweating it on Selection Sunday.

[Leatherneck177]

Ok, so I think committee takes one of the 6-5 teams, most likely 6-5 UNI IF they beat SDSU. 7-4 Western gets in this year, pool of potential at large candidates is THIN. Root for losses by Albany, Weber State, UNI, Fordham, Cal Poly and NCCU. Any of those will help our cause, but in reality, win and the Necks are most likely in. I think two of th three make it....UNI, WIU or ISUr depending on what plays out.

Not the way any of us wanted it, but if told and most predicted 7-4, that should do it. Looks like a first round game at North Dakota or Central Arkansas in my opinion. Better get ready to play some D at SIU first. They have been putting up points all year.

[wiu712]

Current Standings:
North Dakota State 6-1
South Dakota State 6-1
Youngstown State 5-2
Northern Iowa 4-3
Illinois State 4-4
Western 3-4
South Dakota 3-4
Missouri State 2-5
Indiana State 2-6
Southern Illinois 1-6


We were sitting with a 6-2 record a few weeks ago and dreaming about a 9-2 final record, a top 8 seed, a first-round bye, and a home playoff game on December 3. Now a playoff bid may not be a certainty.

The season seemed to have peaked with the emotional game with South Dakota. On the WRMS Radio Post-Game show yesterday, Scott and Tom asked Coach Fisher about the team's lack of enthusiasm.

For the last two home games, we have not seen the energy along the sideline that had been there for the first 3 home games.

So we finish with a 2-3 record for our home games--losing the last three.

[letsgonecks]

We win we're in. 7-4 in the valley with all D1 wins including an FBS will do it. We knocked out 7-4 teams last year who had a non D1 win.

I know the top 25 will change this week, but gives you a good idea of who's close. Of those top 25, Harvard doesn't play in the playoffs, Coastal isn't eligible, Gambling will likely play in the Championship game against the MEAC, and their Champ will either be NC A&T or NC Central who play this week. That loser not likely to get an at-large, especially if its Central who would be 8-3 with a non D1 win.

San Diego gets the Pioneer bid and St Francis should get the Northeastern bid.

Of the 6-4 teams, Liberty has the toughest game against Coastal. They win they get in.

Wolford who is currently 26 should win going 8-3, but have a non D1 win, but could be last team over a potential 6-5 UNI.

Guess we better just win and find out.

[sealhall74]

You can pretty much throw away all of the current Top 25 polls come next Sunday. I am pretty sure the committee will instead rely heavily on the NCAA's Simple Rating System (SRS) rankings. SRS emphasizes two things, margin of victory and strength of schedule. If we have a "squeaker" win over SIU, it will not look as good as a convincing win. A smart coach will run up the score on an opponent given a chance to do it but there is a limit beyond which it does not matter. Maybe that is why Klieman and Spack put a serious hurting on ISUb and MSU yesterday? We ended up smelling like a rose last year on the SRS (e.g. compare us with the "left out in the cold" 7-4 North Dakota team below) and it was most likely the clincher for us. This year I don't know if we will crack the top 25.

2015 SRS Rankings: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f ... ngs-system

[ST_Lawson]

There's a good post talking about the MVFC teams chances of making it into the playoffs over here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... ost2412764

But really, we gotta win at SIU and hopefully by quite a bit. If we don't, we're done for the season. That's all that we (our team) can control.