Playoff Chances

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ST_Lawson
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rocki wrote:And yet other teams found a way to beat them..........regardless of Karter Schult.
The only team that beat this UNI team is NDSU, by 4 points. Trust me, offensively they are COMPLETELY different from when Aaron Bailey was their QB. They've been decent defensively all season...averaging giving up 18.8 points per game. The only teams that they've given up more points to than us were:
Eastern Washington - 34 points...against the best passing offense in the FCS...period.
South Dakota - 28 points...USD's QB had one of the best days of his career.
North Dakota State - 24 points
That's it...nobody else put up 23 or more points against the UNI defense this year. The difference now is that with Dunne at the helm on offense, they actually have a passing game. It's a much more balanced attack, they have good passing and running, as opposed to essentially only a running game in the first half of the season with Bailey (seriously...dude couldn't hit the broad side of a barn door if he was 5 yards away).
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Leatherneck177
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You're right, this is a completely different UNI team. Sometimes I think the Spread offense better suited Western against certain opponents, UNI being one of those. Unfortunately I also believe the Spread is better suited against SIU as well. Helps spread the field and gets the ball out quickly. The Pro Style offense seems to be better suited for teams like NDSU, ISUr etc.
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Leatherneck177 wrote:You're right, this is a completely different UNI team. Sometimes I think the Spread offense better suited Western against certain opponents, UNI being one of those. Unfortunately I also believe the Spread is better suited against SIU as well. Helps spread the field and gets the ball out quickly. The Pro Style offense seems to be better suited for teams like NDSU, ISUr etc.
True, but thankfully SIU's defense is not very good and their offense is very one-dimensional. I'll get into it more when I post my preview of the game (probably later this afternoon), but let's just say I'm not all that worried about their run game. They're more in the mold of a team like Eastern Illinois or Northern Arizona, but not as good.
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letsgonecks
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This team has missed some opportunities and given up some big plays all year long. These last 2 weeks have sucked for us fans and even more so for the team, but thy're one win away from likely getting into the playoffs. Get a strong/complete performance this week and hopefully get things clicking for a playoff run.

The last 2 games could have been won with making a few more plays and better efficiency, but both opponents are playing very good football now. If either team would have squeaked out 1 or 2 more victories like we did, they'd be ready to make deep playoff runs. I hope SDSU takes down UNI, so it eliminates any talk of them getting in over us, but if they do sneak in, they'll be a favorite in my book. Right up there with NDSU and EWU who are the 2 best teams in FCS. Both teams UNI could have beat and like Scott mentioned before, held EWU to 34 points, which was their lowest of the season.

To the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Leatherneck177
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ST_Lawson wrote:
Leatherneck177 wrote:You're right, this is a completely different UNI team. Sometimes I think the Spread offense better suited Western against certain opponents, UNI being one of those. Unfortunately I also believe the Spread is better suited against SIU as well. Helps spread the field and gets the ball out quickly. The Pro Style offense seems to be better suited for teams like NDSU, ISUr etc.
True, but thankfully SIU's defense is not very good and their offense is very one-dimensional. I'll get into it more when I post my preview of the game (probably later this afternoon), but let's just say I'm not all that worried about their run game. They're more in the mold of a team like Eastern Illinois or Northern Arizona, but not as good.
Good point, I never thought of the comparison between NAU/EIU. I can see that, I'd lean more towards a NAU comparison as the SIU QB is putting up some great numbers to start his career. It appears that their top RB, Isom is injured or out? Is that right? Appears that he has only played in 5 games this year.
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Coastal spanking Liberty 42-7 in the 4th. Loss will eliminate them from the field. Giving a WIU win a bigger chance at a spot.
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letsgonecks wrote:Coastal spanking Liberty 42-7 in the 4th. Loss will eliminate them from the field. Giving a WIU win a bigger chance at a spot.
Guess I spoke to soon counting Liberty out with a loss. Since Coastal is now non conference for them, they still only have 1 conference loss. If Charleston Southern loses to Kennesaw State, Liberty would get the auto bid having beat Kennesaw.

Kennesaw would then be 9-3, but 3 wins against non D1 opponents and that hurts their chances, so wouldn't likely take an at large spot. Charleston loss would put them at 6-4 with only 5 D1 wins. Had a game against Albany cancelled due to weather, but still could have only been 6 D1 wins.....if they lose Saturday. Win and their in with the auto and Kennesaw and Liberty are 100% out.
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letsgonecks wrote:
letsgonecks wrote:Coastal spanking Liberty 42-7 in the 4th. Loss will eliminate them from the field. Giving a WIU win a bigger chance at a spot.
Guess I spoke to soon counting Liberty out with a loss. Since Coastal is now non conference for them, they still only have 1 conference loss. If Charleston Southern loses to Kennesaw State, Liberty would get the auto bid having beat Kennesaw.

Kennesaw would then be 9-3, but 3 wins against non D1 opponents and that hurts their chances, so wouldn't likely take an at large spot. Charleston loss would put them at 6-4 with only 5 D1 wins. Had a game against Albany cancelled due to weather, but still could have only been 6 D1 wins.....if they lose Saturday. Win and their in with the auto and Kennesaw and Liberty are 100% out.
The Liberty AD apparently did not like the Flames chances of reaching the playoffs. He resigned in "effective immediately" fashion. Some chatter on the Flames board that he had been working on a month to month contract for the past few months. Also talk that President Jerry Jr. has been looking at ways to reduce the Turner Gill buyout for several months. If all of this is true, they were lucky to be at 6-5 this year. Also see on Wiki that Kennesaw has an enrollment of 35K. Must have a ****load of online and grad students but they do seem to be experiencing tremendous growth for a FCS school.

http://eimirvic.kennesaw.edu/Enrollment ... 201408.pdf
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Leatherneck177
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I believe the only thing that mattered is that Liberty lost last night, making them 6-5. This solidified the fact that the Big South will be a one bid league. Not possible for committee to take a Chuck South team that lost to Kennesaw State as they will also have five losses and Kennesaw State is not even close to having a viable at-large candidacy. So the Liberty loss helps as there will only be one team coming out of the Big South.

Scott, your thoughts?
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Leatherneck177 wrote:I believe the only thing that mattered is that Liberty lost last night, making them 6-5. This solidified the fact that the Big South will be a one bid league. Not possible for committee to take a Chuck South team that lost to Kennesaw State as they will also have five losses and Kennesaw State is not even close to having a viable at-large candidacy. So the Liberty loss helps as there will only be one team coming out of the Big South.

Scott, your thoughts?
Honestly, I'm not too worried about what else is going on this weekend around the FCS outside of our game, SDSU at UNI, and the Sam Houston State vs Central Arkansas game (that's a big one for possible seeding). Really, I think we're at the point where the bubble is soft enough that we win and we're in. In a 24-team field, a 7-4 team from the toughest conference in the FCS, with a 3-0 OOC record against all full-scholarship DI teams (and an FBS) and losses against only teams in the top half of the conference...that should be in fairly easily. I'm not entirely sure if UNI beating SDSU would help us or hurt us, though. UNI winning might get them into the playoffs, which would mean that all of our losses would be to teams with winning records and all but one (IL State) would be to teams in the playoffs....and of those losses, only the SDSU one wasn't a close one. We were within a score on all of the rest. Then again, if the committee decides that they only want one of the "bubble" MVFC teams, they might be inclined to take a 6-5 UNI who had a B12 win, close losses to really good teams, one of the toughest records in the FCS, and a head-to-head win rather than us.

I think that if both UNI and WIU win, we're probably in, but I'd be kinda sweating it on Sunday morning.
If WIU wins and UNI loses, we should be in pretty solidly.
If UNI wins and WIU loses, we're out and UNI is in.
If UNI and WIU both lose, WIU and UNI are both out, but the committee might consider 6-5 Illinois State, with a B10 win, and victories over playoff team SDSU as well as us.

Mostly though...we just gotta win.

Then again, I was convinced that 6-5 wouldn't get us in the playoffs last year since a 6-5 had never made the playoffs as an at-large before, and there were a couple of 7-win teams that I thought would get solid consideration before we did....so what do I know ;)
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