WIU at Southern Illinois (11/19/2016)

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ST_Lawson
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Image VS Image

Date/Time: Saturday, November 19 at 2 PM
Location:SIU’s Saluki Stadium (opened in 2010, seats 15k)

Weather Forecast (as of 11/16): High of 48, 47 at kickoff, partly cloudy/clear, somewhat windy, 0% chance of precipitation
TV: Like all MVFC matchups this season, available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Links: SIU’s Record
The Salukis are currently 3-7 overall, 1-6 in the MVFC.
They have wins over:
  • Southeast Missouri State (30-22)
  • Murray State (50-17)
  • South Dakota (35-28)
Lost against:
  • FBS Florida Atlantic (38-30)
  • Northern Iowa (42-21)
  • South Dakota State (45-39)
  • Illinois State (31-28)
  • Indiana State (22-14)
  • Missouri State (38-35)
  • Youngstown State (21-14)
SIU has had a rough go this season. They started off 2-1 in their OOC games, but they were wins over two not great Ohio Valley teams. They finally picked up their first MVFC win two weeks ago against USD. They have been in most of their games, finishing within 8 points (1 score + 2pt conversion) in all except the game against UNI.

The History
We’ve played Southern 61 times going back to 1933 and every year back to 1982. We have an overall 35-22-4 record against the Salukis in large part due to an 18-year win streak we had against them from ‘84-’01. They won the next 9 years in a row against us before we won again in 2011. Then we lost 3 more in a row before winning by 1 point against them last year (I think that was Homecoming).

Team Stat Analysis
Here’s the team’s stat comparisons courtesy of the NCAA.

So, comparing the raw stats on the two teams, one thing that jumps out is that they have the best passing offense in the conference. Ours is 3rd, so it’s not quite as good, but still decent. In terms of the pass defense, we’re both pretty equally as bad (in the 100+ rank in the FCS). On the ground though, we have the advantage, having a bit of a better run game as well as a bit of a better run defense. Overall though, defense is roughly equal between the two teams, but they have a better overall offense. Something that jumps out to me is that SIU is one of the worst in the country at getting penalized, racking up an average of 73.7 yards per game in penalty yards.

Key Opposition Players

QB Sam Straub - has played 4 games so far...a sophomore who was put in as starter once they were eliminated from playoff consideration. He did play a tiny bit in two earlier games, but has started the last two games, passing for an average of 352.5 yards per game in those two games. He also threw 3 TDs and 0 interceptions as well as rushing for 39 yards per game and 1 TD in those two.

WR Connor Iwema - averages 51.9 ypg and has 5 TDs
WRs Darrell James, Billy Reed, and Israel Lamprakes - each average between 46 and 50 ypg and each has 2+ receiving TDs (Reed has 3). Lamprakes had 156 receiving yards last weekend against YSU.

RB Cameron Walter - the primary RB for much of the season after the injury to Daquan Isom. He has 30.2 ypg and 3 TDs.
RB Jonathan Mixon - was out for a couple of games midseason, doesn’t generally get a ton of yardage, but is their primary short-down/goal line back. Only averages 20.25 ypg, but leads the team with 8 TDs

LB Chase Allen - 66 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 7 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble, 1 blocked kick
S Jeremy Chinn and CB Craig James - DBs who lead the team with 2 interceptions each

The Game

This is it, folks. One more chance to get to 7 wins this season. It's our final regular season game but hopefully not our final game of the 2016 season.

Statistically, we’re pretty close, but in general, WIU has played better than SIU. Where they’ve mostly lost their close games, we’ve mostly won our close games. It’s been a disappointing last couple of weeks so we’re now to the point where we have to win this game to have a shot at the playoffs. I think that we win this one, and we’re most likely in...if we lose...we’re out. 6-5 will not get us into the playoffs this year (it might get UNI and/or IL State in with their schedules and wins). With both of our offenses being better than our defenses, I think it’ll be a fairly high-scoring game. I’m hoping that with the forecasted wind (supposed to be ~20 MPH average), it’ll kinda knock down the passing game for both teams and require more of a ground game, where I think we have an advantage. I think we’ll win the ground game and come away with a win by about 3 points.

Unlike Western, Southern doesn't break for Thanksgiving until Wednesday of next week (their fall break earlier in the semester is two days longer than ours). For them, this means that their students will still be around campus over the weekend, as opposed to when we have home games this weekend and all the students have left. They're averaging about 7,000 fans for their conference home games...around 5.7k for non-event games and 9.6k for homecoming, so we can probably expect something around 5k fans at this game. Probably not a huge crowd factor in this game.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Leatherneck177
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Great job as usual. Perhaps part of the reason for the top passing offense is due to the fact that they are trailing in the majority of their games and have had to get away from the run? Even so, looks like they have two quality QB's. I think we might see both, as the one is a senior and I'm sure they will want to send him out with some playing time as well.
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ST_Lawson
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Leatherneck177 wrote:Great job as usual. Perhaps part of the reason for the top passing offense is due to the fact that they are trailing in the majority of their games and have had to get away from the run? Even so, looks like they have two quality QB's. I think we might see both, as the one is a senior and I'm sure they will want to send him out with some playing time as well.
Actually, in the two games that they've started Straub (the sophomore) they haven't played Straughan (the senior transfer) at all.
Sophomore Matt Desomer did some backup duties when Straughan was starting. In the last two games, other than two pass attempts by one of their WRs (I assume some kind of trick play) Straub was the QB for the entirety of both games. I'd imagine that these last few weeks have really just been SIU getting experience for the younger guys who will be starting next year...Straub with Desomer as backup most likely.
Straughan was really a "hired gun"...a solid passing DII QB who transferred to SIU for his final year of eligibility. He doesn't really have a strong connection to the team and the coaching staff as near as I can tell, so they don't really have a strong reason to start the senior QB as opposed to other schools where a senior might have been recruited by, trained by, and is well-liked by the coaching staff and the other team members.

I doubt we'll see Straughan barring maybe an injury to Straub, but even then, I think we're more likely to see Desomer than Straughan fill in.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Leatherneck177
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True, all good points.
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BobLovely
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This is a "must win" game for the Leathernecks and coaching staff should treat this game as playoff game. Win and we are likely "in." Lose and we are likely "out." I am predicting a positive response to the obvious stakes:

Western Illinois 33
Southern Illinois 25


Bob
wiu712
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Preview of Saturday's game as seen on WGEM Sports with Ben Marth:
http://www.wgem.com/story/33741087/2016 ... carbondale
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sealhall74
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Location: Wherever, Windblows

SIU playing for nothing but pride on their Senior Day. WIU playing for a possible playoff berth. Weather conditions (windy and chilly) favor strong running game and special teams play. Today we find out for sure whether we have been contenders or pretenders. My advice to the coaches: No 12 yard cushions on the wideouts. Dont worry about getting beat deep. The wind will make all long routes risky.

Bulldogs 34
Greyhounds 27
Embrace the pace of the race.
wiu712
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Leathernecks must beat Salukis for post-season spot.
From today's McDonough County Voice:
http://www.mcdonoughvoice.com/sports/20 ... eason-spot


Game Day Forecast for Carbondale:
Sunny skies. Becoming windy late.
UV Index: 3 of 10.
High = 48.
Winds: WNW at 20-30 mph.
Sunset = 4:42 PM.
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yokedneck
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Location: Shawnee, KS

O line back to full health this week. A lot of nerves as fans because we want this season to continue.

If we have anything (new formations, trick plays) left in the holster today is the time to use it.

Hoping for 50 mph gusts when SIU has the ball.

Tom

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[thinkpurple]Leatherneck Football[/thinkpurple]
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sealhall74
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Yep, the playbook ice cream flavor du jour had better be this one.

Image
Embrace the pace of the race.
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