2017 Preview - The Season

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ST_Lawson
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We’ve now gotten a pretty solid look at the players at the various positions on this year’s Leatherneck squad, but how about how it’ll all come together...how is the season going to go down.

In general, this is not a great season schedule-wise, although if the Leathernecks are able to put together enough wins, then they have a good chance at a playoff spot. We play 7 games on the road this year (including the first three straight), and only 4 at home, with the final home game occurring the Saturday before Thanksgiving, so we can probably expect something in the neighborhood of maybe 1k people there...maybe a few more, but it won’t be many.

Anyway, here’s the schedule, and a brief synopsis of our opponents and what I think our odds are. For reference, the returning starters/stats are provided by Keeper’s College Football Ratings.

@ Tennessee Tech - Thursday, August 31 at 6 PM in Cookeville, TN
The Golden Eagles play in the Ohio Valley conference and are coming off a 5-6 season where they lost 30-24 against Eastern Illinois (the only common opponent between them and us last season, who we beat 38-21 to open the season). Their biggest offensive threat, QB Michael Birdsong, is gone this year along with 85% of their offensive line starter playing time from last year. Defensively, they’ve lost a decent chunk of their Linebackers, although they retain most of their DBs. The D-line is about average compared to other FCS schools with what they lost, and they were at least in the top half of fCS teams for how well they did against the run last year. They were pretty weak against the pass and I think we’ll see Sean McGuire airing out the ball quite a bit against them this year.

I think that we’ll likely win this game, probably by ~10 points.

@ Northern Arizona - Saturday, September 9 (time TBA) in Flagstaff, AZ
Up next is a very good Northern Arizona team. The Lumberjacks hail from Flagstaff, AZ and play in the Big Sky conference. Last year, they finished 5-6 on the season, although the STATS National Freshman of the Year QB from 2015, Case Cookus, went down after 4 games and didn’t play the rest of the season. Last year, he threw for 263 yards and 2 TDs in their game against us and he should be back again this year. They also return their top 3 WRs from last season. NAU never really had a huge problem moving the ball against us with as good as their offense was...however...it was against their defense that we were able to win. Last year, NAU was in the bottom 20 of the FCS in passing yards allowed and in red zone defense. Like what seems to be the case with many Big Sky teams, they were big on offense, but their defense struggled. I would expect more of the same as last year in terms of what’s going on on the field. Weather won’t be an issue, since they play in a domed stadium (Walkup Skydome), however the altitude at Flagstaff is just a bit under 7,000 feet above sea level. This could have an effect later in the game as our players might end up getting a bit more tired somewhat faster than NAU’s players. If our guys can get out there a couple of days before the game, however, and get some practices in “at altitude”, it should be too big of an issue for a bunch of kids who are in-shape in and in their early 20’s.

I think we have a decent chance to win this game as well, although maybe by only about a FG.

@ Coastal Carolina - Saturday, September 23 (time TBA) in Conway, SC
From one extreme to the other....NAU with the second highest altitude DI stadium in the country (behind Wyoming), to Coastal Carolina’s Brooks Stadium sitting at a whopping 44 feet above sea level. Thankfully there’s a week off in between to deal with the altitude change (although going from high to low is much easier than the reverse). CCU is playing their first season as a full FBS team in the Sun Belt Conference. We played CCU last in 2015 in SC, where we lost by a TD. Last year the Chanticleers were a fairly high-scoring team, averaging 37.2 points per game, with most of their offense coming via the ground game (65.6% of total yardage). Coastal isn’t projected to be a great team this year, but that’s when comparing them to other FBS teams. If they continue to primarily focus on running the ball, then I think we have a decent shot at shutting them down.

I’d say the odds on this one are probably about what they were for our Northern Illinois game...CCU is favored, but not by much. If we play a good game and are able to capitalize on a mistake or two, then we can win it, although I think the most likely outcome is a CCU 3-point win.

That wraps up our non-conference schedule, which, while it’s possible we could end up 3-0 like last year, I think 2-1 is the most likely outcome. The conference schedule, I’m not really going to take as much time on, for a couple of reasons. 1. It’s further down the road and we’ll know quite a bit more about ourselves and our opponents after we all have a few games under our belts. 2. We’re already way more familiar with the conference opponents than we are with the OOC teams, so I’ll just do a real brief synopsis and my best guess at this point what the outcomes will be. I will be doing my usual, more detailed, game previews every week anyway, where the data will be much more recent and relevant, and the predictions hopefully much more accurate.

vs South Dakota - September 30 at 3 PM in Macomb
First up, the return of Coach Nielson and much of his coaching staff to Macomb. It will also be our Homecoming and the season’s home opener, so there should be a good crowd on hopefully a beautiful day. The Coyotes finished 4-7 overall last season, 3-5 in the conference, and we beat them 35-34 at their place. Star kicker Miles Bergner is gone this year as is their top LB from last year, Jet Moreland. Athletic QB Chris Streveler returns for his senior year, although he’s more of a running threat than a passing threat, which is better for us (or at least, was last year).

This will probably be an exciting, emotional game, but I think we’ll pull out a win by a FG.

@ Northern Iowa - October 7 at 4 PM in Cedar Falls, IA
The Panthers are next, following a crazy offseason in which much of their coaching staff (other than Head Coach Mark Farley) left/resigned following a season where they finished 5-6 (4-4 in the conference). I don’t really know the inside story on that, I just know that a lot of the UNI fans I’ve talked with are not really expecting much this season. They no longer have last year’s conference defensive player of the year and Buck Buchanan award winner, Karter Schult, solid O-Linemen Trevor Hanson and Robert Rathje, but All-Conference Second Team LB Jared Farley will be back for one more year, as will Second Team DB Malcolm Washington. I think they’ll be better defensively than offensively this season, but they lost quite a bit on both sides of the ball, and Coach Farley has a tendency to kinda shoot himself in the foot relatively often. Last year we lost to them 30-23, but it feels like they’re trending down and we’re trending up right now (could easily change once we get into the season though).

Northern Iowa is currently favored in this game (which is their Homecoming), but I think our chances are higher than people are projecting and we come away with a close win.

vs Missouri State - October 14 at 3 PM in Macomb
Back home again to take on the Bears of Missouri State who finished 2-6 in the conference and 4-7 overall last season. One of those losses was a very close nailbiter of a game where we pulled out a 3-point win in the final minute of the game down in Springfield, MO. This year, they will be without last year’s top tackling LB in the entire FCS, Dylan Cole. Lineman Colby Isbell, TE Erik Furmanek, and return specialist/WR Deion Holliman all return this season, although they are expected to have some issues at the QB position, since the most experienced QB they have is a transfer from Fresno City College who spent his redshirt year at Louisiana-Monroe, and none of the QBs on the roster have played as a MSU Bear before.

Missouri State is not really expected to even challenge for a playoff at-large spot this season and we should be able to win this one by maybe 10 points.

@ North Dakota State - October 21 at 2:30 PM in Fargo, ND
From one extreme to the other again...home against the Bears to away against the Bison. Last year (a “down year” by recent standards) NDSU finished 7-1 in the conference, losing only to SDSU and 12-2 overall. Last season we lost to NDSU 21-13. They made it to the third round of the playoffs, losing by a TD to eventual FCS champions James Madison by 10 points. All-Conference First or Second Team players that they lose: RB King Frazier, FB Chase Morlock, OL Zack Johnson, OL Landon Lechler, LB MJ Stumpf, and OL Jack Plankers. They also lost DL Greg Menard for the season due to injury, and TE Jeff Illies has been sidelined with a knee injury in practice (he’ll probably be back by the time conference games start, but hard to say for sure at this point). Returning is Senior LB Nick DeLuca who was injured early in the season last year and was able to take it as a redshirt year. He’s a legitimate (possibly early-round) NFL draft pick who comes back with a chip on his (now healed) shoulder. Also returning is DB Tre Dempsey, LS James Fisher, and DL Nate Tanguay. Still, if there’s one thing NDSU has proven over the last few years is that whether they lose a guy due to finishing his eligibility or due to injury, they always seem to have a guy who can step up and be just as good.

I’d love to see a win here, but I think, barring some craziness, it’s probably not likely. Can we keep it close and not get blown out like the last time we played in the Fargodome?...well...that’s my hope for this game. I think we keep it closer but still lose, by about 17 points.

vs South Dakota State - October 28 at 1 PM in Macomb
Last year’s conference runner-up (even though they did beat the Bison in Fargo) is coming off a 7-1 conference season where they finished 9-4 overall and made it to the second round of the playoffs, eventually losing their second matchup in the Fargodome for the season. I know that many would like to forget, but last season we lost 52-14 in Brookings, SD. This year, the Jackrabbits bring back probably the best set of offensive weapons in the entire FCS with conference offensive player of the year Taryn Christion and First Team All-Conference WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert, the three of which comprise the entirety of the MVFC representation on this year’s Payton Award Watch List. Also returning is MVFC Freshman of the Year, LB Christian Rozeboom, O-Lineman Jacob Ohnesorge, RB Brady Mengarelli, FB Kane Louscher, and D-Lineman Kellen Soulek. Out of all the players on the All-Conference list from last year, only one...LB Jesse Bobbit...was a senior and won’t be back this year. SDSU is poised for a big run at the championship (both conference and FCS) this season with lots of talent and lots of experience.

This year, we likely won’t have weather delay issues to disrupt SDSU’s travel and unless our DBs are SIGNIFICANTLY better this season, it could start to get ugly again. I think it’ll be a lot closer than last year, but we’ll still lose by ~10 points.

@ Illinois State - November 4 at 12 PM in Normal, IL
This year, we match up with the Redbirds for the 100th time in history (we lead the all-time series 50-46-3) during their Family Weekend game in Normal. ISU finished 4-4 in the conference and 6-6 overall on the season and played in the first round of the playoffs, losing at Central Arkansas by 7. They were only the second FCS team to make the playoffs with only 6 wins (after we did it the previous year) and pretty much squeaked in after our season-ending 3 losses in a row. Last year we lost to ISU here in Macomb 31-26. The Redbirds lose O-Lineman Mark Spelman and WR Anthony Warrum, but they return DB Davontae Harris, DL Dalton Keene, and DB Alec Kocour.

This will likely be an emotional game with a good Leatherneck crowd. Like the Coastal Carolina game, ISU is the favorite in this game, but not so much that the difference can’t be overcome. Seeing as how this is something of a “rivalry game”, just about anything could happen too. I wouldn’t be surprised if we pull out a win, but I think we probably lose by 4.

@ Indiana State - November 11 a 12 PM in Terre Haute, IN
Last year, the Sycamores finished 2-6 in the MVFC and 4-7 overall and this are expected to not be even that good. Of their few All-Conference players, only placekicker Jerry Nunez returns, as longsnapper Joshua Appel, WR Robert Tonyan Jr., and LB Jameer Thurman were all seniors. They have an entirely new coaching staff this season, although it’s one that pretty familiar with the school including former Leatherneck QB Jeff Hecklinski (ISU’s Offensive Coordinator), last year’s CB coach Deon Broomfield (now ISU’s CB’s coach), and former NDSU Linebacker Grant Olson who would have played against us maybe three times between 2011-2013 (now ISU’s LB coach). So, they weren’t great last year and it looks like they’re probably in “rebuilding mode” (even though that seems to generally be the default position for the Sycamores).

I think we should be able to win this one relatively easily (as easy as any game in the MVFC is...which...most aren’t), maybe by about 13 points.

vs Southern Illinois - November 18 at 1 PM in Macomb
And just like last year, we finish up with the Salukis on the Saturday that starts Thanksgiving break, this time, back here in Macomb. Considering the last two times we played our last game of the season here on that weekend, we’ve averaged 1,818 people...I don’t see us having a ton of people at this game. Anyway, SIU finished 2-6 in the conference last year, 4-7 overall, although our 10-point loss to them to finish the season last year essentially cancelled our postseason plans. They didn’t have anyone on last year’s All-Conference list, although they did get one player, O-Lineman Austin Olsen, on this year’s conference preseason team. They also had honorable mentions for FB Hans Carmien, WR Connor Iwema, DB Jeremy Chinn, and RS D.J. Davis. SIU isn’t expected to have much of a defense this year, with their top LB from last year, Chase Allen, having used up his eligibility. They should have a much better offense than they do defense again this year, but in many cases, teams will likely be able to put up more points than SIU does.

I think that will be the case with us, and we’ll win a fairly high-scoring game by 7 points.

If my predictions hold (they most likely won’t...not all, anyway), we should end up 5-3 in the conference, and 7-4 overall, which should get us in the playoffs this season.
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WIU11DC
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I love the write ups you do for us every year and each week. I am still trying to get the lay of the FCS world and understand some of the not known complexities in FCS. But, here is my opinion on this upcoming season. I am more worried about Northern Arizona then Coastal Carolina when it comes to OOC. The reason I say that is last year our biggest issue was our defensive back field and NAU has a great passing attack. If we can limit them to under 30 points it will make me feel great going into our conference play. Outside of SDSU, I don't believe we will play a team that has that kind of powerful offense. I have faith in our front 7 to be one of the better run defenses in the FCS this year. So, how we play against NAU (on the defense side of the ball) will kinda tell me what to expect this year or hopefully have our team realize what needs to be fixed early in the season. I love the buzz that is going on about our team this year we have some great talent back and I am very excited for next Thursday! Also, I have tickets to the CCU game, is anyone else going?
WIU11DC
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Does anyone know the best regular season record we have ever had? And the best regular season record we've ever had in D1-AA or FCS?
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sealhall74
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Last year, we sucked holding down an opponents air attack, no other way to look at it. Maybe the 3-4 scheme this year with an extra LB will provide some extra help against the pass. But generally speaking, it is a rare to go from worst to first or near in anything in a span of only a year. Yes, we appear to have some new bodies in the mix, but I still say it will take some time to make big improvements there. You cant coach speed and that is mostly what playing DB is all about. I no longer have my LazyBoy recliner to do the arm chair quarterbacking from (it blew out a seat spring and damn near destroyed my back over the period of two months before I realized what was going on) but I will always say that the best way to stop an air attack is to play keep away with the ball. Loooong sloooow drives on offense emphasizing the running game and eating away at the clock will win most of the time. If we can run the ball consistently, we will compensate for any weaknesses on the other side of the ball.

I plan on going to all of the first three road games, assuming I can get a little work done on my deck the early part of next week before taking time off to visit Cookeville, TN. Have a friend flying out next weekend to help finish the deck job and then we are both flying out to AZ for the NAU game. Have not made my reservations for CCU yet but I am pretty sure that is a definite also. Starting the season with 3 tough road games and opening at home for Homecoming is about as tough a schedule as you can have. You would like to have at least one home game before then to iron out the kinks of gameday operations, etc.

Should be interesting. We will know a lot come end of September.
Embrace the pace of the race.
leatherneckcountry
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WIU11DC wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:20 pm I love the write ups you do for us every year and each week. I am still trying to get the lay of the FCS world and understand some of the not known complexities in FCS. But, here is my opinion on this upcoming season. I am more worried about Northern Arizona then Coastal Carolina when it comes to OOC. The reason I say that is last year our biggest issue was our defensive back field and NAU has a great passing attack. If we can limit them to under 30 points it will make me feel great going into our conference play. Outside of SDSU, I don't believe we will play a team that has that kind of powerful offense. I have faith in our front 7 to be one of the better run defenses in the FCS this year. So, how we play against NAU (on the defense side of the ball) will kinda tell me what to expect this year or hopefully have our team realize what needs to be fixed early in the season. I love the buzz that is going on about our team this year we have some great talent back and I am very excited for next Thursday! Also, I have tickets to the CCU game, is anyone else going?
Not looking to make excuses but we held NAU to 20 points and are top db played in that game and I think that was his last game of the season and it was the 1st game without Diggs
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Neckfansince71
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We will be at the Coastal Carolina game! We won the bid to travel with the team at the Purple and Gold,mseemyou there! ;) jc
letsgonecks
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I believe we'll have one of the best defenses in FCS this year. We did not get to the quarterback last year and think the 3-4 with this personnel will do the trick. Add the transfers at DB and the returnees a year better and they might be our strong point.

Last year's D started fairly decent, but the wheels fell way off and that cost them. If Saunders, Moon and Taylor produce like expected and we stay healthy with consistency at DB and this could be the best team we've seen since 02 and 03 or better.

Conference will be really tough and who knows they could drop a handful of games, but don't feel they will. SDSU will be their biggest hurdle on the whole schedule and think they have a decent shot. Will be tough on the road at NDSU, but think this team will leave with a W.

Mr. Optimistic
Last edited by letsgonecks on Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
leatherneckcountry
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WIU11DC wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:27 pm Does anyone know the best regular season record we have ever had? And the best regular season record we've ever had in D1-AA or FCS?
1959 we went undefeated not sure about best record as an fcs probaby late 90's early 2000's
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