WIU vs South Dakota State (10/28/17)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Game Time: 1:00 PM Central, 10/28/2017
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather:


TV: ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Radio: Announcers (Scott Kornberg, Dr. Tom Cody) - Beardstown - WRMS (94.3 FM); Macomb - WJEQ (102.7 FM); Galesburg - WAIK (1590 AM); Quincy - WPWQ (106.7 FM); Clinton, Iowa - (KCLN 1390 AM)
Internet: wrmsfm.com or Tune-In Radio App (Google store and iTunes)
Live Stats: http://www.sidearmstats.com/wiu/football/
Game Notes: Western Illinois | South Dakota State (Not posted yet)

A bit about South Dakota State
SDSU is 5-2 this season. They beat Duquesne (limited scholarship FCS), had a tough win at Montana State, and destroyed (non-scholarship) Drake in their OOC games. They then lost at YSU by 12, demolished SIU by 35, lost to UNI by 20, and steamrolled MSU by 32.
The Jackrabbits currently have the #9 scoring offense in the FCS (38.4). They are 27th in passing offense (258.4 ypg), 28th in rushing offense (190.3 ypg), and 18th in total offense (448.7). On the other side of the ball, they're only 36th in scoring defense (21.6 ppg), 45th in pass defense (202 ypg), 81st in rushing defense (172.3 ypg) and 56th in total defense (374.3). They are very disciplined, currently #8 in the FCS (#1 in MVFC) in penalties with 4.29 per game. They are also very good at not allowing tackles for loss (#5 in FCS, #1 in MVFC). Their weakness appears to be their front defensive line. They are 118th in the FCS (out of 123) in tackles for loss, 87th in sacks, and with their lack of run defense it looks like they have trouble stopping RBs right at the line.

Full SDSU stats for 2017

SDSU Players to Watch:

• QB Taryn Christion - Throws for 238 ypg and 16 TDs w/ 3 INTs and runs for 38 ypg and 4 TDs. Similar to NDSU's Easton Stick, but this year, not quite as good of a runner.
• TE Dallas Goedert - Last year's secondary receiver has really come into his own this year, catching nearly 84 ypg and 3 TDs. You will be seeing him playing in the NFL next year.
• WR Jake Wieneke - only catching for just under 55 ypg and 8 TDs so far this year, but in his first three years, set the MVFC record for receiving yards in a career, and holds the #1, #4, and #6 spot for receiving yards in a season in conference history. So, he can still be a very dangerous receiver.
• RB Brady Mengarelli - averaging 69 ypg w/ 6 TDs on the season, but 122.7 ypg in their last three games (220 against SIU, 115 against MSU)
• LB Christian Rozeboom - last year's conference newcomer of the year has 67 tackles including 3 for loss, a couple of passes defended and 3 QB hurries.

Series History
Western has played South Dakota State 14 times starting back in 1976. SDSU has a 9-5 series lead and a 3-4 series lead at Hanson Field. Last year's matchup was a 52-14 blowout loss for Western at Brookings, SD.

Predictions
Massey - 35-31, WIU Victory
Compughterratings.com - 34-30, WIU win
Sagarin (calculation, doesn't round) - 33.75 to 27.60, WIU win

Rankings
Sagarin (out of all 254 DI teams) - WIU 81, SDSU 85
STATS Top 25 - WIU 12, SDSU 11
Massey Composite - WIU 4, SDSU 6
AGS Poll - WIU 8, SDSU 14 (tied)

My Take
Our odds of winning this one have gone up as the season has progressed, but SDSU is still a tough team to play, especially their offense, which can be particularly explosive at times. We have to work on limiting the passes to Wieneke and Goedert and not allow Christion room to run the ball. When we have the ball, we need to get the run game going. Their pass defense is decent, but run defense is not, so if we can put together plenty of drives full of ~5 yard running plays with occasional big runs or passes, we'll be good.

Common Opponents
Obviously doesn't have any actual bearing on how the teams will play, but it's interesting to look at sometimes.
Northern Iowa - we won at UNI by 9, they lost at home by 20
Missouri State - we won at home by 19, they won at MSU by 32

Prediction:
Another tough game. At the start of the season, I thought that SDSU would probably take this one in a close game, but now I'm thinking that we stand a really good chance of it going the other way. I think it'll be fairly high scoring, but Western will come out on top by about 8 points. I'd peg the final score to be around 40-32, I think.

[rocki]

I'm starting to believe a win in this game is "do-able". If the 3-4 lets us get to the qb faster, we have a much better chance, I think. The way they really stung us last year was with the long ball - if we can take that out of the equation, I really, really, like our chances.

They are really concerned about their defense stopping the run - as long as our blocking stays good I think between McShane and Norris we can move the ball pretty well. Add in Acklin and Zeke (and Conrady and Harper) and we have threats through the air as well.

I know to have any chance, we have to win at least 2 of the last 4 games. It's the Valley, so who knows, but I think we could get 3 out of 4; and if ILSU reverts back to their previous (non-USD crushing) ways, it could even be all 4. I guess we'll see.

[sealhall74]

The jury is still out on our running game. We seem to be fairly successful when we mix in enough jet sweeps to keep the defense guessing. Where was the jet sweeps against the Bison? I dont think there was a single one and I came in expecting a new wrinkle or two off of it. Our play calling seemed to be very conservative against the Bison, sort of out of character. Need to play the full deck against the Jacks.

[wiu712]

[ST_Lawson]

The jury is still out on our running game. We seem to be fairly successful when we mix in enough jet sweeps to keep the defense guessing. Where was the jet sweeps against the Bison? I dont think there was a single one and I came in expecting a new wrinkle or two off of it. Our play calling seemed to be very conservative against the Bison, sort of out of character. Need to play the full deck against the Jacks.

I was thinking the same thing. Seems like we didn't really open up the playbook all that much. I don't know if it would have made a huge difference, since the Bison defense seemed to just have our number most of the second half, but we might have gotten a few more points out of it. Once we get our ground game established against SDSU (shouldn't be too hard with their weakness against the run), we can start airing things out every now and then and bring back the jet sweeps and stuff.

[leatherneckcountry]

The jury is still out on our running game. We seem to be fairly successful when we mix in enough jet sweeps to keep the defense guessing. Where was the jet sweeps against the Bison? I dont think there was a single one and I came in expecting a new wrinkle or two off of it. Our play calling seemed to be very conservative against the Bison, sort of out of character. Need to play the full deck against the Jacks.

I was thinking the same thing. Seems like we didn't really open up the playbook all that much. I don't know if it would have made a huge difference, since the Bison defense seemed to just have our number most of the second half, but we might have gotten a few more points out of it. Once we get our ground game established against SDSU (shouldn't be too hard with their weakness against the run), we can start airing things out every now and then and bring back the jet sweeps and stuff.

Not sure it would have matter with the way are line played not sure if we changed blocking scheme or what but 2 of are lineman have been getting owned lately. Seemed liked Cox a former WIU commit was all over the field.

[wiu712]

The Weather Channel has changed their forecast for Saturday. Now they are predicting cloudy skies with a few showers later in the day.
High = 42.
UV Index: 2 of 10.
Winds: West at 10-20 mph.
Chance of rain = 40%.

[leatherneckcountry]

The Weather Channel has changed their forecast for Saturday. Now they are predicting cloudy skies with a few showers later in the day.
High = 42.
UV Index: 2 of 10.
Winds: West at 10-20 mph.
Chance of rain = 40%.

Really didn’t change it that was about the forecast they had on Saturday then they changed it and now are going back again which is why I said they was a chance of rain on Saturday before being told I was wrong

[wiu712]

Still 4 days out. So it could change a few more times.

The National Weather Service has a bit more positive outlook:
Partly cloudy.
High = 47.
UV Index: 3 of 10.
Winds: West at 10 mph.
Chance of rain = 10%.

Normal high would be 62.

[LocalYokelFan]

The jury is still out on our running game. We seem to be fairly successful when we mix in enough jet sweeps to keep the defense guessing. Where was the jet sweeps against the Bison? I dont think there was a single one and I came in expecting a new wrinkle or two off of it. Our play calling seemed to be very conservative against the Bison, sort of out of character. Need to play the full deck against the Jacks.

I was thinking the same thing. Seems like we didn't really open up the playbook all that much. I don't know if it would have made a huge difference, since the Bison defense seemed to just have our number most of the second half, but we might have gotten a few more points out of it. Once we get our ground game established against SDSU (shouldn't be too hard with their weakness against the run), we can start airing things out every now and then and bring back the jet sweeps and stuff.

Not sure it would have matter with the way are line played not sure if we changed blocking scheme or what but 2 of are lineman have been getting owned lately. Seemed liked Cox a former WIU commit was all over the field.

Exactly my opinion too. Tough to run jet sweeps and stuff on the edge when NDSUs DEs are 2 yards up-field the moment the ball is snapped. NDSU is really good on the defensive side of the ball. It's tough to get creative on offensive when the defense can provide the amount of QB pressure they can.

I'm very interested in these next two games. I think we have to win one of them. You can't lose both and be playing tight against ISUb and SUI like we did last year. I look forward to the offensive (particularly the o-line) having a much better outing Saturday. The defense just needs to get a little bit better and more consistent like I think they have been all year. I'll say this one is close and lower scoring because of the weather 27-24 'Necks.