Playoffs?...PLAYOFFS?!?!?

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Leatherneck309
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What is the thought on getting the #8 seed? Haven't looked into the scenarios WIU needs to happen. I am guessing they would be 3 or 4 out right now and I think they will pass USD but what are the outs to jump 2 or 3 other teams? Would love to make it back to Macomb for a 2nd round game.
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Leatherneck309 wrote: Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:00 pm What is the thought on getting the #8 seed? Haven't looked into the scenarios WIU needs to happen. I am guessing they would be 3 or 4 out right now and I think they will pass USD but what are the outs to jump 2 or 3 other teams? Would love to make it back to Macomb for a 2nd round game.
It's hard to know for sure, but the AGS poll is usually pretty good at predicting the playoff scenarios. Teams ahead of us that we could pass (we're #13) and the teams they play the rest of the season are:
#12 Weber State - at Portland State 0-9, vs Idaho State 4-9
#11 Stony Brook - vs Wagner 3-6, at Maine 4-4
#10 South Dakota - at #4 North Dakota State 8-1, vs #5 South Dakota State 7-2
#9 Southern Utah - at UC Davis 5-4, vs #16 Northern Arizona 6-3
#8 Wofford - at VMI 0-10, at FBS South Carolina 6-3
#7 Elon - at #27 New Hampshire 6-3, vs #1 James Madison 9-0
#6 Sam Houston State - at Abiline Christian 2-7, vs Houston Baptist 1-8

We need to move past 5 of those teams. I think South Dakota and Elon are the best bets for dropping behind us. We might pick up a spot if we win our last two in dominant fashion. I'm not saying it's a lock if we win the last two, but if we win the last two and we get a bit of help in a few other situations, then we could sneak in as the #8 seed.

So, if you're following teams, you want Portland State to beat Weber State, Wagner to beat Stony Brook, NDSU to beat USD, UC Davis to beat Southern Utah, VMI over Wofford (that is about the unlikeliest of unlikely), New Hampshire over Elon, and Abiline Christian (with the former coach at DII powerhouse NW Missouri State) over Sam Houston State. We don't need the teams to lose both of their games, but if a majority of them can go 1-1 or 0-2, while we go 2-0...that'd be great.
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sealhall74
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No freaking squeakers this week or next and we might be worthy of top 8 consideration.
Embrace the pace of the race.
leatherneckcountry
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I just don't think it will happen I just hope we get Jacksonville St in the 2nd round I've been saying for years if you put them in the MVFC they would be a middle of the pack team.
Leatherneck309
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Thanks for doing the leg work. Seems possible 3 teams ahead could drop with a loss. If we win by 2 scores or more the next two weeks the resume the team has built might push us up a spot. It could be real close.
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If we win out and with both games solidly, then all we need is some of those schools going 1-1.

Let's look at the AGS Top 25 from last weekend, how they did, and where they ended up in this week's poll:
Here's the weekly "How They Fared" from the AGS Top 25: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
And this is this week's AGS Poll: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... ost2562034

Teams that lost and where they went...
#2 NDSU lost at #9 SDSU by 12 and dropped to #4 (2 spots)
#5 South Dakota lost at #24 Northern Iowa by 5 and dropped to #10 (5 spots)
#10 Northern Arizona lost at #31 Montana by 2 and dropped to #16 (6 spots)
#13 Illinois State lost vs #16 WIU by 17 and dropped to #21 (8 spots)
#15 Eastern Washington lost to #17 Weber State by 8 and dropped to #23 (6 spots)
#23 Villanova lost to #20 Richmond by 22 and dropped to #33 in the "Others Receiving Votes" section (11 spots)

So, you're looking at an average of around 5-6 spots dropped for 1 loss. If you win, you generally don't move up much unless you beat a higher ranked team, which there aren't many games like that on the #6-#12 team's schedules...USD has 2, Elon has 1.

All of this is assuming we win out (if we don't, or if they're close games, this is all pretty much moot anyway)...
#12 Weber State probably won't lose
#11 Stony Brook could drop one to Maine
#10 South Dakota with a banged-up Chris Streveler could easily drop both of their games...higher ranked teams, but if they lose both, they'll drop below us for sure...maybe even if they only win 1 depending on other stuff.
#9 Southern Utah could lose either of their games (both have winning records)
#8 Wofford will, barring craziness...go 1-1, but the loss will be to an SEC team, so they might drop a little. How far depends on how competitive they are in the game.
#7 Elon will likely go 1-1, but could bo 0-2 if they hit a rough patch
#6 Sam Houston State likely won't lose either game

So, we've got #7 losing 1-2 games, #8 losing a game vs an SEC team, #9 losing...maybe 1, #10 losing potentially two games, and #11 possibly dropping 1. That's five teams that I could see dropping behind us depending on the outcomes and point spreads. If that happens, we could snag the #8 spot. We need to play well and we need a bit of luck, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, I think.
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One more bit about these teams. Massey has predictions/odds for all FCS games and is generally pretty accurate (I think it's ~80% correct in picking the winners over the last few years...someone over at AGS has been keeping track for a while...Sagarin is ~75%, just FYI). Here's the chances of each of those teams winning their remaining games:

#12 Weber State - at Portland State (95%), vs Idaho State (96%)
#11 Stony Brook - vs Wagner (98%), at Maine (58%)
#10 South Dakota - at #4 North Dakota State (18%), vs #5 South Dakota State (43%)
#9 Southern Utah - at UC Davis (60%), vs #16 Northern Arizona (60%)
#8 Wofford - at VMI (99%), at FBS South Carolina (2%)
#7 Elon - at #27 New Hampshire (41%), vs #1 James Madison (3%)
#6 Sam Houston State - at Abiline Christian (94%), vs Houston Baptist (99%)

I've bolded the games where the teams we want to lose are underdogs or only slight (60% or less) favorites. For example, the 60% win chance for SUU in their two games translates to a 3-point projected margin in both games. One good day from a WR or one long return by a kick returner could make the difference in those close ones...they're practically toss-ups.
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Leatherneck309
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Nice to have a compiled list of games to watch monitor. It will be tough but possible.

If we miss out on a seed I sure hope the matchup is favorable like 2015. Hopefully stay away from SDSU and NDSU as long as possible! I would rather have a shot at JMU than replay either of them although we seem to play NDSU better than most.
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JMU would be really tough (although that's where we'd go if we got #8 and won our first game). Out of the higher ranked teams, I'd much rather face a team like Sam Houston State or Central Arkansas. I think we'd match up well with a Southland team better than JMU. Someone like Southern Utah would also be acceptable.

I think those are who I'd like to face, ideally. Although I wouldn't mind another shot at South Dakota if that comes around too :twisted:
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Leatherneck177
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Scott you nailed it. I’d like a shot at Wofford or Elon as well. They are both very ripe for the picking. Get ready for Central Arkansas, SHSU or USD. I definitely see Western making a nice run with the right draw.

Don’t worry about others losing, just get 2 wins, 8-3 with our resume will get us a seed regardless of what others do. Our profile alone will get us up there!
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