WIU vs Southern Illinois (11/18/17)

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ST_Lawson
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Game Time: 1:00 PM Central, 11/18/2017
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather:
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TV: ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Radio: Announcers (Scott Kornberg, Dr. Tom Cody) - Beardstown - WRMS (94.3 FM); Macomb - WJEQ (102.7 FM); Galesburg - WAIK (1590 AM); Quincy - WPWQ (106.7 FM); Clinton, Iowa - (KCLN 1390 AM)
Internet: wrmsfm.com or Tune-In Radio App (Google store and iTunes)
Live Stats: http://www.sidearmstats.com/wiu/football/
Game Notes: Western Illinois | Southern Illinois

A bit about Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois started the season with a couple of wins against Mississippi Valley State and Southeast Missouri State, before playing a close game at FBS Memphis. They lost the next two against Northern Iowa (by 7) and at South Dakota State (by 35). The Salukis then won two more games back to back against Illinois State (by 35) and at Indiana State (by 21). Their last three games, however have all been losses, with their original starting QB, Sam Straub, out for the season with a broken hand injury. They lost by 42 at South Dakota, by 8 to Missouri State, and by 8 to Youngstown State.
The season stats can be a bit misleading, due to Straub playing up until the last three games. SIU had a WAY better offense under Straub, and they didn't really have a defense to begin with. SIU's offense puts up an average of 419 ypg (30th in the FCS), with 165 ypg on the ground (51st) and 253 ypg through the air (28th). Their offense scores 28.7 ppg (43rd in the FCS). On the other side of the ball, they give up 383 ypg (77th) with 159 on the ground (71st) and 224 ypg through the air (28th) and they allow 27.4 ppg (73rd).
In their last three games, they are giving up 35.3 ppg and scoring 16 ppg. They are averaging 186 ypg on the ground and 209 ypg through the air. The Saluki defense in the last 3 games is allowing 202 ypg on the ground and 184 ypg through the air (large part of that is because Streveler sat out for nearly all of USD's game against SIU).

SIU Players to Watch:
  • QB Matt DeSomer - now the starting QB, Somer is multitalented, playing kick returner, WR, Safety, and QB over the last three seasons (listed as a backup Safety). DeSomer, a former state-champion QB in Indiana, played in SIU's last two games, throwing for 79 ypg in those two games with 0 TDs and 0 INTs. He is more of a running QB, having put up 107 ypg on the ground in the last two games with 2 rushing TDs. Last weekend he also caught one pass for 34 yards and was actually the team's leader in passing, rushing, and receiving in that game.
  • WR Darrell James - SIU's primary receiver, netting 72.4 ypg with 7 TDs.
  • S Ryan Neal - leads the team in tackles with 75, 1 for loss, 3 INTs, 4 pass breakups, and 1 fumble recovery.
  • DE Anthony Knighton - has 34 tackles, 11 for loss with 6.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 5 QB hurries, and 2 forced fumbles and was added to the Jerry Rice award watchlist (Top freshman in the FCS) a couple of weeks ago
  • P Lane Reazin - currently the top punter in the conference, 9th in the FCS, with a 43.6 yards per kick average on 49 kicks with 13 inside the 20.
Series History
The Leathernecks and Salukis have played each other 62 times starting in 1933 with WIU holding a 35-23-4 series lead. Western beat Southern every year from 1984 to 2001, but then SIU won 12 of the next 13. Last year's game was a 44-34 heartbreaking loss for the Leathernecks in Carbondale that sunk WIU's chances of making the playoffs.

Predictions
Massey - 35-21, WIU Victory
Compughterratings.com - 37-19, WIU win
Sagarin (calculation, doesn't round) - 36.69 to 17.93, WIU win
Average margin: ~17 points

Rankings
Sagarin (out of all 254 DI teams) - WIU 79, SIU 151
Massey Composite - WIU 5, SIU 45
STATS Top 25 - WIU 9, SIU NR
AGS Poll - WIU 11, SIU NR

Common Opponents
Northern Iowa - WIU won by 9, SIU lost by 7
South Dakota State - WIU lost by 28, SIU lost by 35
Illinois State - WIU won by 17, SIU won by 35
Indiana State - WIU won by 45, SIU won by 24
South Dakota - WIU lost by 5, SIU lost by 42
Missouri State - WIU won by 19, SIU lost by 8
Average point margin difference: ~12.3

My Take
I was much more worried about this game prior to Sam Straub getting injured. SIU's defense hasn't been real great all season...roughly "on par" with Missouri State's. Offensively, their new QB doesn't throw the ball well, but is a decent runner. I think if we play like we have been recently, our defense should be able to shut them down pretty well, defending the pass well enough to force them to run the ball, then stopping the run like we have shown we are able to do. Despite the fact that we have mostly the same players as last year, this year has a whole different feel to it. Instead of getting ahead early and trying to hold off the other team, we start slow (sometimes allowing a few too many points early) and then blow things open later. This seems to apply to the season as a whole as well, where we started off strong but faded down the stretch. The team motto this year is "finish the fight", and this year they seem to be doing just that.

Prediction:
I think the game will stay close in the first half, but as usual, we have a huge scoring run in the 3rd quarter and put up about a 20 point lead that we hold on to win. Leathernecks by 20 as the final "statement" heading into the playoffs.
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rocki
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The only part of your review that makes me bite my fingernails is that SIU's defense is "on par" with MoSt. We had to come from behind to win that one, and while we did win it I much prefer the ISUb, NAU, TennTech, and such games where we come out firing on all cylinders take an early lead and keep it at the end.

Our defense played really well last week, and I think if we keep the pressure on SIU's qb we'll go a long way toward the win. They've got weapons, sure, but they need to get the ball to them first. Force bad throws or don't give him the chance to run. Let's get to 8-3 'Necks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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rocki wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:59 pm The only part of your review that makes me bite my fingernails is that SIU's defense is "on par" with MoSt. We had to come from behind to win that one, and while we did win it I much prefer the ISUb, NAU, TennTech, and such games where we come out firing on all cylinders take an early lead and keep it at the end.

Our defense played really well last week, and I think if we keep the pressure on SIU's qb we'll go a long way toward the win. They've got weapons, sure, but they need to get the ball to them first. Force bad throws or don't give him the chance to run. Let's get to 8-3 'Necks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If it makes you feel any better, UNI and Illinois State have better defenses than either of those two (ISU's is much better) and we put up 31 points in one half against ISU. If we play like we have been the last couple of games, I'm not worried at all. The other thing is, we struggled against stopping MSU's offense at times...gave up too many first downs that we shouldn't have. That hurts field position, keeps our scoring lower by not allowing us to have/move the ball in our direction, etc. They beat us on time of possession, we beat ourselves by having twice as many penalties as they did (10 vs 5).

SIU's offense essentially went from being nearly as good as ours to being somewhere between Missouri State's and Indiana State's when Straub went down.

The first game that was mostly without Straub was their game against South Dakota. In that game, Streveler was injured only about 3:30 into the game (first drive) and was out the entire rest of the game (sounds like he could have come back in at halftime if they needed him...they didn't). You also had the defensive players (including their top DB) sitting out the game because, as we would later find out, they had been accused of rape/attempted rape and had essentially "turned themselves in". So...severely weakened USD team against SIU (still with Straub at this point)...
1st drive - SIU goes 4 plays, 22 yards, and punts
2nd drive - SIU goes 6 plays, 23 yards, and punts
3rd drive - SIU goes 3 plays, 2 yards, and punts (Straub injured his hand on the last play of this drive)
From then on it looked like this for SIU:
3 plays, 8 yards, punt
7 plays, 47 yards, INT
1 play, 5 yards, fumble
3 plays, 7 yards, punt
2 plays, 9 yards, end of half
SIU finally started getting a few first downs in the second half but the rest of their drives ended in: Missed FG, turnover on downs, punt, INT, turnover on downs, INT, INT.

They've done a little better in their games since then, but they still lost to MSU and YSU...both of which weren't playing for anything in terms of postseason.

So, how they've been doing lately vs how we've been doing lately...I'm not really that worried. If we can stop DeSomer from running the ball much, I think we'll be fine.
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Watching some of the replay from SIU and YSU last weekend.

DeSomer usually does a delayed run up the middle...waits for the play to develop and a hole to open up in the middle of the line and goes that way. Occasionally hands off, but usually just runs himself. He's fast, but he takes a little while to get up some steam...so he starts off kinda slow and relies on having enough room to get moving.

I'm pretty much not worried at all about their receivers...he rarely throws, and when he does, it looks like a slow lob ball that eventually gets to the receiver (who usually has to alter his route to get it). Diggs and Viti should be able to handle those pretty well...they look to be a lot faster than SIU's receivers, so they should be able to cut in and knock down or catch any throw that isn't dead-perfect.

I'm no coach, obviously, but personally what I'd do is have Taylor in the middle, tell him to just watch the QB and if he starts to run forward, go and take him down. DeSomer isn't a quick, nimble QB who can dodge a decent tackle...like the kind that Taylor can lay on him repeatedly. I think Taylor task should be to make sure that if DeSomer runs, he doesn't get more than 2 yards. The other LBs can handle the edges and the DBs can handle the receivers.

Also, inside blitzes should help bottle up DeSomer's running lanes and prevent him from going anywhere. I predict both Saunders and Taylor will get at least a couple of sacks each and make it really hard for DeSomer to run the ball.

Otherwise...77 passing yards against MSU, 81 passing yards against YSU (with a 31.6% completion rate...yeesh)...he's not a threat through the air. Stay close and cover the receivers, but this isn't a "put 2 or 3 guys on Wieneke or Goedert" type of situation.
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leatherneckcountry
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This is always the scariest game on the schedule to me they have had our number since the turn of the century the few times that we won it has been a dog fight no pun intended. I know we don't consider them a rival but do they consider us a rival.
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wiu712
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Leathernecks looking to shore up playoff bid and maybe more.

From today's McDonough County Voice:
http://www.mcdonoughvoice.com/sports/20 ... maybe-more
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meganeck
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With a WIU win Saturday, Coach Fisher will get his 50th career victory.
letsgonecks
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Is Tanner Hearn hurt for them as well? If not, I'd assume we see him at QB. They know their only chance to make this a game is by airing it out and he's a true QB.

We are strong against the run and weaker against the pass. Hurts them not having Straub, but they remember what they did against us last year passing the ball.

We're much improved on D and the ability to get to the QB this year should limit their attack and lead to some more sacks and picks.

WII 38 SIU 10
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