2018 Preview - The Season

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ST_Lawson
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So, I just realized I never got around to doing my usual season preview. I'm going to have to do a super-short version this year, I'm afraid.

8/30 - at Montana State
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I already discussed it a bit in the game-specific thread, but I think that in general, our defense is going to really step up this year. Montana State is starting a new QB and I think that's a recipe for MSU not putting up a ton of points. It sounds like MSU is planning on putting a lot of pressure on McGuire to try to disrupt his rhythm, but he has a lot of experience and I don't think he's going to get knocked off his game very easily. They may get a few extra sacks due to inexperience on our O-Line, but McGuire has a way of making a broken play into something productive.
I think WIU wins by ~10.
1-0

9/8 - at Illinois
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Illinois seems to be trending up, although since they started at practically rock-bottom, they're still not great. It's going to be a tough game and regardless of the outcome, I hope we're competitive...I really don't want another 44-0 blowout like we had in 2015. I don't see that happening, and I'm hoping to be proven wrong, but I don't know that we'll quite have enough depth to get the win. I think U of I wins by 6 but I hope I'm wrong. If we pull out the win, I'll be going completely mental down in the front row like all the other Leatherneck fans.
1-1

9/15 - vs Montana (Family Day)
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Montana is a perennial FCS powerhouse with one of the largest and loudest stadiums in the division. Thankfully, this year's game is here in Macomb. Montana is going through a bit of a transition period this year, with a new head coach (who is also their former head coach from 2003-2009). He was successful in his earlier time there, but this is his first year back and they are without their talented young QB from last year Gresch Jensen, who decided to transfer to a California JUCO (Fullerton College) this season. They have a transfer QB that is apparently a better fit for their new system....but anytime you have players learning a new system, there can be "glitches". I think Montana will likely be a force to be reckoned with in the FCS...in a year or so. This year though...in Macomb...I see us taking the win by about 13 points.
2-1

9/29 - vs Youngstown State (Homecoming)
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YSU had a great 2016, making it to the national championship game. Last year, however, they struggled to a 6-5 record and played 3 (maybe 4) different players as QB due to injuries. A lot of people seem "high" on the Penguins this year, projecting they'll make it back to the playoffs and finish in the top half of the conference. However, they've had quite a few injuries to starters during their training camp, there's been distractions with some of the players legal issues, and just today it was announced that their Co-DC has been put on administrative leave pending the outcome of an internal investigation. Lots of drama can be a huge distraction to a team, and I think they're going to end up closer to where they were last year. They have a very good RB and a decent LB and a couple of O-linemen, but otherwise, they're going to have some problems. Offensively you can't rely on one guy at this level (unless he's a once-in-a-generation talent) I think it all adds up to a 14-point Leatherneck win.
3-1

10/6 - at Illinois State
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Because of scheduling fun, we get to head back across the state to take on ISU again this year. The Redbirds have a lot of talent returning, some very good young recruits, and what looks like a pretty solid coaching staff. RB James Robinson and WR Spencer Schnell along with O-Lineman Drew Himmelman are all on the MVFC preseason first team, and they have an experienced QB with Senior Jake Kolbe. Defense could be a bit of an issue, with only a DB listed on the conference preseason second team. I think that overall, ISU will be able to put up quite a few points, but they might also have trouble stopping opposing offenses. I think this will be a really tough battle for us, much moreso than last season's game (especially the second half), but we should be able to pull out a 3-point win.
4-1

10/13 - vs North Dakota State
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So, on one hand...you hear a lot of Bison fans saying that NDSU seems to struggle whenever they play at Western. On the other hand, NDSU could very well have their best team since 2013 when they were ranked #1 all season, went 15-0 and outscored playoff opponents 173-42 in four games. They have 8 players listed as first-team preseason all-conference guys, two guys on the Walter Payton Award watch list, and two on the Buck Buchanan Award watch list. If they have any weakness, it's their kicking game, but they rarely have to rely on that. I'd love to beat the Bison (for the first time since 2010), but I just don't see it as the likely outcome. I think we'll stay close for most of the game, but NDSU will pull ahead in the second half and hand WIU a 10-point defeat.
4-2

10/20 - at Missouri State
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Missouri State was a little dangerous to some teams last year, mostly due to a duo of talented WR/Return guys, Deion Holliman and Malik Earl. Add in TE Erik Furmanek, and the offense was pretty decent. However...those three were all seniors last year. It's possible that someone will step up to take the mantle, but in three years as HC of the Bears, Dave Steckel is 8-25 with their best season at 4-7. They have one player on the MVFC preseason first team, LB Angelo Garbutt and a DB and OL on second team. Last year we beat them 49-30 here in Macomb and I don't see this year as being that much different. A few points for them since it's at their place, but I think we come away with about a 14-point win.
5-2

10/27 - vs Northern Iowa
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Last year, UNI was fairly successful, finishing the season at 7-4 before demolishing Monmouth (NJ) at home in the first round of the playoffs and then losing at South Dakota State in the second round. They have back this year, LB Rickey Neal, who led the MVFC in sacks last season and is a first team preseason all-conference LB, as well as TE Briley Moore who is also on the first team. RB Marcus Weymiller and WR Isaiah Weston were both on the second team along with O-Lineman Cal Twait and DB Xavior Williams. QB Eli Dunne is back for his senior season, so they do have an experienced guy in that spot. Because we're located fairly closely to UNI, there's a few other names on the roster that we might recognize: Sophomore DB Suni Lane from Bettendorf was at one point a WIU verbally committed player, as was true freshman WR Deion McShane...younger brother of our own Steve McShane, although he likely won't play much this season as a redshirt, I'd imagine. Many of you probably remember last year's wild game against UNI where a "back-and-forth" fourth quarter led to WIU being down by 4 with under a minute left to go. With 6 seconds left, we scored a TD to take the lead, but then on the kickoff, had a fumble recovery for a TD and ended up winning by 9 points...a 13 point turnaround in a span of 6 seconds (of gametime). This year, I think UNI comes to Macomb with revenge on their mind and steals a win from the Leathernecks. UNI by 3.
5-3

11/3 - at Southern Illinois
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First team preseason all-conference WR Darrell James and DB Jeremy Chinn are the biggest names on the SIU roster, but with QB Sam Straub at the helm, they had a pretty solid offense last year. On the downside for the Salukis, top RB Daquan Isom has decided to transfer, so their top RB is DJ Davis who only had 358 yards last season. Last year, familiar name WR Landon Lenoir (younger brother of Lance) sat out with a medical redshirt, so it's likely we'll see him play some this year. Defensively, SIU is likely to struggle again this year though, with their two top tacklers from last year having been Seniors. D-Lineman Anthony Knighton does return, and he led the team in tackles for loss and sacks. Last season was a 28-14 Leatherneck victory...which sounds about like what we'll see again this year, maybe a little smaller margin since it's at SIU this year. WIU wins by 8.
6-3

11/10 - at South Dakota
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Last year's all-everything and then some QB Chris Streveler is now off to the CFL, where he's been doing well as the Winnepeg Blue Bombers #2 QB. This means that USD now has to rely on the services of QB Austin Simmons, who...while he has been a solid QB when he's been put on the field...is not the threat that Streveler was. They have a preseason first-team all-MVFC WR with Shamar Jackson and a pretty solid O-Line, which should help Simmons in his role as starting QB. Defensively, DL Darin Greenfield is on both the first-team preseason team and the Buck Buchanan Award watch list. Greenfield and DB Andrew Gray hope to help lock down the defense, and they have one of the better punters in the conference with Brady Schutt. Last year's matchup was another memorable (and heartbreaking) one, where USD was up 38-6 over halfway through the 3rd quarter before we began our comeback. We would pull within 5 points, but it wouldn't quite be enough to take the win at Homecoming. This was also the game where Acklin hauled in an incredible 19 receptions for 343 yards and 3 TDs, which really cemented Acklin's place as a top-tier WR and worthy replacement for Lance Lenoir. Last year...5 points too short really hurt, but I think WIU will return the favor this year, taking another win at the Dakota Dome, like we did in 2016. WIU wins by 5.
7-3

11/17 - vs Indiana State (Senior Day)
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The hapless Sycamores made it through last season winless, despite having close games against Eastern Illinois and Liberty. They are at least projected to win a game this year, opening the season against Quincy. Beyond that though, it looks like probably more of the same for blue ISU. They do have a few players on defense that might do ok, with DLs Inoke Moala and Rex Mosely, LBs Jonas Griffith and Katrell Moss, and DB Rondell Green all on the preseason all-MVFC first team. They also have a decent placekicker, Jerry Nunez, who was second-team preseason all-MVFC. Last year, we rolled out a 45-0 win at Terre Haute. This year it's in Macomb, although with it being the weekend before Thanksgiving, the crowd will be sparse, to say the least. Good news is, unless something has gone horribly wrong, we should win this one pretty solidly. I'm going with a 30-point WIU win.
8-3

So, my optimistic prediction...2-1 in OOC and 6-2 in the conference, 8-3 overall and a spot in the playoffs (possibly a seed if things go our way).
Massey has us the favorites in all but our game against NDSU, but I think really anything between 75% chance of a win and 25% chance of a win is really going to come down to how our young O-line does and how quickly they get up to speed. I see 3-4 games that are "for sure" wins, 1 game that's pretty much a "for sure" loss, and a lot of "in between". We could end up 3-0 at the start of conference season....could be 1-2 (I don't think we drop all three though). Personally I think we'll outperform what many are predicting, but we won't really know much of anything until the game tonight.
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Leatherneck177
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Any thoughts on revisions to this or too early?

OLine run block was good, pass block not so much or maybe it was inexperience chemistry at WR?
Special teams hurt, kicking was fine in my opinion, but covering the kicks/punts not so good.

I thought Illinois could be a win, now I have major concerns...although that type of QB last night could prepare us versus what is a multi threat QB for the Illini in Bush.
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Leatherneck177 wrote: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:50 pm Any thoughts on revisions to this or too early?

OLine run block was good, pass block not so much or maybe it was inexperience chemistry at WR?
Special teams hurt, kicking was fine in my opinion, but covering the kicks/punts not so good.

I thought Illinois could be a win, now I have major concerns...although that type of QB last night could prepare us versus what is a multi threat QB for the Illini in Bush.
I think if we don't pick up the pace, so to speak, it's going to be a long season. I was really disappointed in the defense. Yes, I know Brett Taylor is gone; but we still have a lot of guys that returned on defense so it shouldn't have been as dire as it was, to my way of thinking. Moon didn't appear to be "on" last night, and it got painful watching our guys try and chase someone down instead of stopping them before they got started.

I know we miss Jaelon Acklin as well, but honestly, before last season, I thought Lesure was going to be the "go to" guy after Lenoir left. He and McGuire appeared to work well together the previous year, the guy can jump over a lot of defenders (see Scott's pictures from a couple of years ago), and I can't figure out where his production has gone.

We need work. Lots and lots of work. (And I don't mean to take anything away from the Bobcats - they completely outplayed us; I just don't know how our production is so far off regardless of scores.)
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ST_Lawson
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Leatherneck177 wrote:Any thoughts on revisions to this or too early?
Well...it kinda depends on if this game was first-game jitters/mistakes or if this is just how the team is going to play this year.

If we get most of the guys back to where I've seen many of them play over the last year or two, I think we can do ok...probably ~7 wins. If this is going to be "business as usual" for this year, then we'll struggle to get 5-6. Either way we'll beat INSU, MO State, probably SIU. I think MT, UNI, USD, YSU, and ILSU are tossups. NDSU and IL we don't stand a chance against.

Still too early to know much for sure...too many question marks about what happened on the field in Bozeman. MT State plays South Dakota State next weekend. If we are competitive with IL (even in a loss) and MSU's defense slows down the Jackrabbit offense considerably, then I feel a lot better about things.


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