WIU at Southern Illinois (11/3/2018)

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ST_Lawson
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Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:58 am

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Game Time: 1:00 PM on Saturday, November 3rd
Location: Saluki Stadium, Carbondale, IL
Weather:
ImageImage

TV/Radio:
TV/Streaming: ESPN3
Radio: WRMS 94.3 (Beardstown), WJEQ 102.7 (Macomb)
Streaming Audio - wrmsfm.com, WRMS on Tunein.com

About the Salukis
SIU is 2-6 on the season and 1-4 in the MVFC. They opened with a big win over Murray State, then losses at FBS Ole Miss and a close one at home against non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State. In the conference, they lost to South Dakota, lost by 3 at Youngstown State, got steamrolled at Illinois State, lost by 3 back home against Indiana State, then went on the road and earned their first conference win over Missouri State by 14. Their starting QB for most of the season, Sam Straub, was benched before the Indiana State game and #2 QB Matt DeSomer took over. Since then, DeSomer has thrown for 185.5 yards per game with 4 TDs and 1 INT in those two games. He's also run for 113.5 ypg with 1 TD rushing and was awarded the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week for last week's performance. D.J. Davis is the top RB for the Salukis, putting up 106 ypg with 5 TDs. WR Raphael Leonard averages 75.75 ypg receiving with 4 TDs while WR Landon Lenoir (Lance's younger brother) picks up 41.63 ypg with 2 TDs. TE Nigel Kilby is used more in short/red zone situations, only averaging 34.83 ypg, but with 6 TD receptions. On defense, LB Bryce Notree averages 8.1 tackles per game and has 2 sacks and 2 interceptions. Safety Jeremy Chinn also has 2 INTs, is #2 in tackles with 5.9 per game, and has 2 forced fumbles and 5 pass breakups. DE Anthony Knighton is #2 in the conference (behind Pete Swenson) in sacks, averaging .75 per game and has 5 QB hurries.

Series History: The Leathernecks and Salukis have played 63 times going back to 1933. WIU has the lead in the series, 36-23-4, at one point winning 18 straight (1984-2001) before SIU won 9 straight (2002-2010). The last 4 matchups have been even, with WIU winning in 2015 and 2017, and SIU winning in 2014 and 2016. Last year's game was a 28-14 victory for WIU on November 18th. The home team has won the last 4 matchups.

Common Opponents:
Youngstown State: WIU won by 7, SIU won by 3 = advantage WIU by 4
Illinois State: WIU lost by 17, SIU lost by 48 = advantage WIU by 31
Missouri State: WIU won by 17, SIU won by 14 = advantage WIU by 3
Average advantage: WIU by 12.7

Predictions:
Massey - 34-28 WIU win
CompughterRatings.com - 33-29 WIU win
Sagarin - 5 point WIU win

Rankings:
Sagarin (out of all DI teams): WIU 121, SIU 144
Massey Ratings: WIU 17, SIU 44

My Take
SIU is out of playoff consideration, but we're still in it, needing to win our remaining games to have a good chance. So, SIU has nothing to lose in this game and would love to play the spoiler to us. SIU has improved quite a bit with QB DeSomer at the helm. He's a running threat, which doesn't worry me too much considering how well we've done against running QBs (shutting down MSU's Huslig and NDSU's Stick), but RB D.J. Davis is a quality RB that we'll need to work hard to stop. If you want comparisons to our team, Davis is their "McShane" and RB Jonathan Mixon from Galesburg is their "Max Norris". The O-line did a really good job last week I though, but they'll have their hands full again with the DE Knighton and LB Notree. Overall, this feels like it could be a "trap game" if the team doesn't show up like they did against UNI. On the plus side, SIU doesn't seem to play well at home, with both of their wins coming on the road. I'd say that they need to treat this game like the MSU game. Despite SIU winning the head-to-head against MSU, I feel like they are fairly similar teams. You know that SIU is going to give us their best game, so we need to play like we're already in the playoffs. I think Coach Elliott will have them ready to play, like he has just about the entire season, and we'll come away with a 32-24 win over the Salukis.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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RedNeck
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:43 am

Not sure I can really add anything of substance to this thread. It was a good read. I think you did an accurate assessment of strengths (weakness)

Holy CRipes this team should be jacked up right about now. Look at our league. This is why good players come here. Every week they have the opportunity to roll an opponent.
Last edited by RedNeck on Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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RedNeck
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

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Leatherneck177
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:42 am

Great job Scott. I predict a 34-24 win, SIU will hang around initially, but I think our D gets a few more stops than theirs.

Second, I sent a message to Craig Haley from STATS via Twitter. He feels very good about a 7-4 WIU getting in, we would be 6-2 in the MVFC with a tie for 2nd. Hard to leave that out.
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sealhall74
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:54 am

At 7-4, I feel we will be deserving of a slot. But at the same time, I just wonder how many times in history has a team which was not the conference auto-qualifier and not in the top 25 of either major poll ever made the playoffs. It can't be very many. And I dont see how we can move up much into the polls with the remaining schedule we have. IMHO, UNI knocking off ISUr will help our chances alot because if it comes down to head to head matchups, we need a little push.
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letsgonecks
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:52 pm

Though our strength of schedule will drop the next 3 weeks, we'll still easily be near the top 10 in the FCS. If we do in fact win out, we'll gradually receive more and more votes, as other teams potentially drop a game or two and fall behind us.

Rankings aren't all the matter in making the playoffs, but we're sitting at 32 with 24 teams getting in.

Here are 4 teams with more votes that won't get in:
UNI/ISUr as the loser this week will be unable to get to 7 DI wins.
Dartmouth is IVY League and doesn't play in the post season.
Princeton same as above.
Florida A&M is looking like the MEAC winner and would play in the Celebration Bowl. If they somehow lose two games they're not making the field and NC A&T wins out they'll play and not be included in the 24 either.

Teams with some work left to do:
Rhode Island needs to take 2 of 3 with games at #8 Elon, at #3 JMU and against 2-6 New Hampshire.
Idaho State needs to win out for 7 DI wins at 4-4 Portland State, at 3-5 Cal Poly and against #4 Weber State.
Maine needs to win 2 and still plays at #15 Townson, at 3-5 Richmond and against #8 Elon.
Central Arkansas needs to take 2 of 3 and plays 3 Southland foes all sitting at 4-4.
Elon had a game cancelled, so need to win 2 of 3 vs 5-3 Rhode Island, vs #15 Townson and at #23 Maine. Maybe they get some consideration with the cancellation and have a shot with only 6 DI wins, if they only get 1 of 3.

Teams behind us to pay attention to:
Monmouth if they win out to be 9-2 that would include beating current #2 Kennesaw State and their only losses to ranked Princeton and a decent Eastern Michigan team.
Montana State winning out to be 7-4 including a win over us.

All that being said, we must win each week and hope being potentially tied for second in the Valley and 7-4 with one of the toughest schedules gets you in. We'll just have to win and see!!!!!
Think Purple...lets think Gold as in Championships!!!
Leatherneck177
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:35 pm

Is there a SIU message board?
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ST_Lawson
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:01 pm

Leatherneck177 wrote:Is there a SIU message board?
http://saluki-insider.com
No mention of this weekend's game yet though.


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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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dustinthorn93
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Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:42 pm

Last season UNI was 1-2 in OOC, went 6-2 in MVFC play and ended up making the playoffs. This year seems to be trending that way for WIU.
wiu712
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Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:55 pm

I heard that the Western Marching Leathernecks will be at the game in Carbondale on Saturday. Part of a trip to St Louis for the band.
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