2018 Playoffs?

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letsgonecks
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:19 pm

Obvious must win, but here's some updates on other games that could affect our playoff DREAMS!!!! Scott could move this to the games of interest thread if he see's fit.

Nicholls over SE Louisiana tonight: Puts them as the auto bid keeping them out of the at-large pool and UIW sitting at 6-4 and hopefully not getting any love for cancelling their game this week for a money game with Iowa State in Dec (they would cancel if awarded an at large or Nicholls loss and auto bid)

Bethune-Cookman over Florida A&M: Turns out A&M's loss last week to conference foe SC State was a non-conference game $#%&. Their loss and NC A&T win would put NC A&T into the Celebration Bowl and out of the 24.

Weber State over Idaho State: Idaho State win would only get them to 6 DI victories, but beating #3 would look pretty good for them.

Northern Arizona over North Dakota: Win for ND would probably get them in at 7-4, loss would have them losing 3 of 4 down the stretch and lower strength of schedule than us.

Montana State over Montana: MSU wins and they should be in, Montana win and they should be in and just don't want MSU being in the 6 win discussion with a win over us.
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Gardner-Webb over Monmouth: Hoping Monmouth at 7-4 is considered below our 6-5. 8-3 and they have a good chance with losses to good teams.

Elon over Maine: Would rather Elon just win and get 6 teams out of the CAA. A loss would give them only 6 wins and all DI, but a weather cancelled game and playing in the CAA might put them over us and the committee not wanting two 6 win teams.

Somehow Tennessee Tech over EKU: An EKU win would put them at 7-4 and possibly a third team from the OVC.

South Carolina over Chattanooga: Chatt would only be 4-4 in their conference, but 7-4 overall and finishing with an FBS win would likely put them in.

Mercer over Furman: Keep Furman from getting their 6th win and some exception for a weather cancelled game. Even though Colgate probably would have won giving up only 29 total points this year (3 f'ing touchdowns and 2 were week 1).

McNeese State over Lamar: Don't want Lamar winning 6 straight to get to 6 DI wins. A Lamar win would put both teams at only 6 DI wins and likely push both out, but would prefer McNeese getting in as the second Southland team and potentially one more negative for UIW.

USD over SDSU: Probably not going to happen and might not really help our cause, but could lessen the sting of our loss to them a bit in the eyes of the committee.
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Sycamore62
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:57 pm

Do you think EIU beating SEMO drops them out? I could see EIU scoring with them. The coaches have to be wondering if they have jobs on Monday.....I should rephrase that, The coaches are wondering if they have jobs on monday
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letsgonecks
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:15 pm

Sycamore62 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:57 pm
Do you think EIU beating SEMO drops them out? I could see EIU scoring with them. The coaches have to be wondering if they have jobs on Monday.....I should rephrase that, The coaches are wondering if they have jobs on monday
If they lose, they might still have a decent chance of getting in, but will depend on other outcomes. If EKU wins and they lose, EKU would be ahead of them in the standings with one less conference loss (EKU & Tenn St look to be playing 1 less conference game than the rest) and a head to head victory. How does the committee view the OVC and would they put in a third team with 7 wins over a third team from the Valley with only 6 DI wins? Technically, a Murray State win puts them in 2nd no matter what with wins over both and all 6 wins coming in conference play.

I have a feeling the committee is going to try to do everything they can to not let in a 6 DI win team, so they both might get in at 7-4.

Think our teams have to hope a lot of the other games end in our favor.
Last edited by letsgonecks on Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RedNeck
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:17 pm

I can't see only 2 Valley teams making the playoffs. The 3rd and last valley team in will be decided this Sat. in Macomb. I'm actually pretty emotionally detached right now. The 'Necks Jekyll :mrgreen: and Hyde routine doesn't evoke confidence that they belong in the playoffs. Now if the 'Necks come out and play the rest of the way they did for the UNI game things really could get interesting.
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ST_Lawson
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:26 pm

RedNeck wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:17 pm
I can't see only 2 Valley teams making the playoffs. The 3rd and last valley team in will be decided this Sat. in Macomb. I'm actually pretty emotionally detached right now. The 'Necks Jekyll :mrgreen: and Hyde routine doesn't evoke confidence that they belong in the playoffs. Now if the 'Necks come out and play the rest of the way they did for the UNI game things really could get interesting.
That's my view too. 3 will probably get in...NDSU, SDSU, and either us or Indiana State depending on who wins on Saturday. The only way the winner of our game doesn't is if nearly all of the other bubble teams win. A lot of them are playing tough games too though, so that's unlikely.
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wiu712
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:25 pm

DOWN, NOT OUT: Leathernecks still hold post-season hopes.
From the McDonough County Voice:
http://www.mcdonoughvoice.com/sports/20 ... wn-not-out
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ST_Lawson
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:28 pm

letsgonecks wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:19 pm
Obvious must win, but here's some updates on other games that could affect our playoff DREAMS!!!! Scott could move this to the games of interest thread if he see's fit.

Nicholls over SE Louisiana tonight: Puts them as the auto bid keeping them out of the at-large pool and UIW sitting at 6-4 and hopefully not getting any love for cancelling their game this week for a money game with Iowa State in Dec (they would cancel if awarded an at large or Nicholls loss and auto bid)
Didn't move it out of the Football area, since it does affect us, but figured it could use it's own thread.

As for Nicholls vs SELA...Nicholls crushed the Lions 44-0, which is good for us. UIW is much better than they have been the last few years, but they're not going to be a playoff team at 6-4. Nicholls has the autobid for the Southland conference, so they won't have to take up an at-large slot.
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ST_Lawson
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:37 am

The NCAA put out a video talking about selection and stuff for the playoffs:


Some points noticed by Hero Sports writer Sam Herder:

They can use the Coaches Poll for data points...that's bad...Coaches Poll is consistently one of the worst out there.
Minimum bids for the rounds: 1st - $30k, 2nd - $40k, Quarters - $50k, Semis - $60k
Also pointed out by someone else: the line about how less than 6 DI wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected...essentially they've defined 6 DI wins as the "minimum" to get in.

Some of it is not really "news", but I thought it was info that some of you might find interesting.
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WIU2DC
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:40 pm

What time and what channel is the selection show on Sunday?


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ST_Lawson
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:47 pm

WIU2DC wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:40 pm
What time and what channel is the selection show on Sunday?


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Selection show is on Sunday, November 18th at 11:30 AM (Central; on the NCAA website, times are listed in Eastern) and will be available on ESPNU: https://www.ncaa.com/championships/foot ... dcast-info
If you don't get ESPNU, a good source is to follow the NCAA's FCS Twitter account: https://twitter.com/NCAA_FCS
They should have updates in near-real time.
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