2018 Playoffs?

WIU2DC
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:48 pm

ST_Lawson wrote:
WIU2DC wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:40 pm
What time and what channel is the selection show on Sunday?


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Selection show is on Sunday, November 18th at 11:30 AM (Central; on the NCAA website, times are listed in Eastern) and will be available on ESPNU: https://www.ncaa.com/championships/foot ... dcast-info
If you don't get ESPNU, a good source is to follow the NCAA's FCS Twitter account: https://twitter.com/NCAA_FCS
They should have updates in near-real time.

Thanks! I could have probably googled that but I’m lazy. So thanks!


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ST_Lawson
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:53 pm

WIU2DC wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:48 pm
Thanks! I could have probably googled that but I’m lazy. So thanks!
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No problem. It's good info to know.

There's a thread over on AGS where a guy put together all the games involving the likely "bubble" teams with a bit of explanation. If you're going to be checking up on all the games that could impact our chances, this is a good lost to follow:

Elon @ Maine 12pm (Do the back-ups at Elon get blown-out again? If so might be on the bubble)
Indiana St. @ WIU 2pm (Winner survives to stay on the bubble)
Montana St. @ Montana 2pm (Winner survives to stay on the bubble)
EIU @ SE Mo St. 2pm (SE Mo St. needs a win to stay on bubble)
NC A&T and FAMU games to decide the MEAC champ, if NC A&T then that opens up a playoff slot, if FAMU then NC A&T takes a playoff slot, both games at 2pm
EKU @ TN Tech 2:30pm (EKU needs a win to stay on bubble)
Furman @ Mercer 3pm (Furman needs a win to stay on bubble)
UCA @ ACU 3pm (ACU needs a win to stay on the bubble)
Lamar @ McNeese 4pm (Winner survives to stay on the bubble)
North Dakota @ Northern Arizona 4:30pm (North Dakota needs a win to stay on the bubble)
Weber St. @ Idaho St. 4:35 (Idaho St. is in with a win and out with a loss)
Mo. St. @ UNI 5pm (UNI needs a win to stay on the bubble)
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Leatherneck309
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:46 pm

ST_Lawson wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:53 pm
WIU2DC wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:48 pm
Thanks! I could have probably googled that but I’m lazy. So thanks!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
No problem. It's good info to know.

There's a thread over on AGS where a guy put together all the games involving the likely "bubble" teams with a bit of explanation. If you're going to be checking up on all the games that could impact our chances, this is a good lost to follow:

Elon @ Maine 12pm (Do the back-ups at Elon get blown-out again? If so might be on the bubble)
Indiana St. @ WIU 2pm (Winner survives to stay on the bubble)
Montana St. @ Montana 2pm (Winner survives to stay on the bubble)
EIU @ SE Mo St. 2pm (SE Mo St. needs a win to stay on bubble)
NC A&T and FAMU games to decide the MEAC champ, if NC A&T then that opens up a playoff slot, if FAMU then NC A&T takes a playoff slot, both games at 2pm
EKU @ TN Tech 2:30pm (EKU needs a win to stay on bubble)
Furman @ Mercer 3pm (Furman needs a win to stay on bubble)
UCA @ ACU 3pm (ACU needs a win to stay on the bubble)
Lamar @ McNeese 4pm (Winner survives to stay on the bubble)
North Dakota @ Northern Arizona 4:30pm (North Dakota needs a win to stay on the bubble)
Weber St. @ Idaho St. 4:35 (Idaho St. is in with a win and out with a loss)
Mo. St. @ UNI 5pm (UNI needs a win to stay on the bubble)
How many bubble spots are up expected to be out there this year?
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:03 pm

Leatherneck309 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:46 pm
How many bubble spots are up expected to be out there this year?
Hard to say, but I've seen people say around 4-5 probably. Anywhere from 4-12 of the teams listed above could be on the bubble, depending on who wins and who loses (some are bubble team vs bubble team, so someone's staying in it...like our game with INSU). If you end up in the middle with 8 of the teams on the "bubble" and 4-5 spots available, I like our chances since we have the #2 toughest SoS (rated by Massey) in the FCS. #1 is UNI, so they have a case if they win their game and get to 6-5 also, but if it's up to us vs them, we have the head to head win. I think Elon is the next team that could be on the bubble in SoS ratings at #10.
The FCS playoff committee uses the NCAA's FCS Simple Rating System (SRS) heavily in their decision-making. SRS uses SoS as one of the main components of it's calculations.

So, I think what we want to see (and the chances of it happening based on Massey):
  • Maine beat Elon (59%) - Maine is pretty much in it regardless of what happens, Elon with a loss is 6-4 overall and 4-3 in the CAA. Also, they'd be the 6th CAA team in the playoffs, which is really pushing it, I think. Idk if they'd take that many from one conference.
  • Montana beat Montana State (62%) - this doesn't matter too much, but a win over a possible playoff team looks better than a loss to a playoff team. Also, we have the head to head win over Montana.
  • Eastern Illinois beat Southeast Missouri State (14%) - SEMO is 7-3 currently, but a 7-4 from the OVC is highly unlikely to get a spot.
  • NC A&T to win the MEAC - If they win, then they go to the Celebration Bowl and nobody else in the conference is good enough for an at-large. If FAMU wins the MEAC, then they get the Celebration Bowl spot and NC A&T is good enough to take an at-large spot.
  • TN Tech beat Eastern Kentucky (22%) - EKU would be 7-4 with a win and having played two FBS teams, that puts them on the bubble.
  • Mercer beat Furman (39%) - honestly, I think Furman is out regardless of what they do, but if they have a big win, they could be on the fringe of the conversation with a 6-2 record in the Southern and 6-4 overall. (the list was put together by a Furman fan)
  • Central Arkansas beat Abilene Christian (38%) - ACU would be 7-4 with a win and would be in the discussion.
  • Lamar vs McNeese - essentially doesn't matter to us. Identical records means whoever wins is "bubble", loser goes home.
  • Northern Arizona beat North Dakota (30%) - UND would be 7-4. They're considered independent this year, but mostly played a "Big Sky" schedule.
  • Weber State beat Idaho State (57%) - Weber State is in no matter what...could get a seed if they win. Idaho State is 6-4 and most likely is out with a loss but in if they win.
  • Missouri State beat UNI (10%) - I guess UNI losing would drop them from the discussion, but since we already have the head to head win over them, we'd get in before they do anyway. They pretty much need to hope for nearly all the games listed above to go the way I described, plus have us lose our game, for them to have a decent shot.
If all the games go the way they are favored, then that's about 8 teams vying for ~4 spots. We have a couple things going for us...in addition to the previously mentioned SoS...the playoff committee has only ever put in 6 win teams if they're from the MVFC. Not saying they couldn't do one from elsewhere this year. If there's one that's "worthy", it'd be from the CAA, but they have 5 teams already sitting at 7-3. If all 5 get in, Elon would be #6...fully half of the conference. Not saying it won't happen, but it seems unlikely barring a complete collapse from a lot of other teams.
If we remove Furman, which I'm inclined to do, then that's ~7 teams fighting for the spots. Elon at Maine starts at 11 Central tomorrow, so that's when things will get rolling.
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:13 pm

WIU-Indiana State meet with potential playoff spot on the line.
From the McDonough County Voice:
http://www.mcdonoughvoice.com/sports/20 ... ot-on-line
Leatherneck309
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Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:48 pm

Thanks for all the compiled info. I was pessimistic about any playoff chance after USD but seems there is a decent chance if they have a strong showing tomorrow. Hoping this team still have their best game ahead of them. Can't wait for kickoff!
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ST_Lawson
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Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:24 am

Leatherneck309 wrote:Thanks for all the compiled info. I was pessimistic about any playoff chance after USD but seems there is a decent chance if they have a strong showing tomorrow. Hoping this team still have their best game ahead of them. Can't wait for kickoff!
Yup, taking everything into consideration, my educated guess is that if we win today, we'll have around a 60% chance of making it in.
But it all means nothing of we don't win. Just gotta take care of our own business, then let the chips fall where they may.


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Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:21 am

Couple other items:
- NC A&T loss also opens up a playoff spot. No way the committee takes a MEAC team with three conference losses.
- The Elon game is pretty big, 6-4 would really be pushing it if they are to take a sixth CAA team....URI would also be in this camp with a win today, but again if you are taking 6 teams, #6 needs to be impressive.
- Really need a Weber St win over Idaho State, if Idaho State gets in this squeezes the field a bit more, same goes with North Dakota if they beat NAU. Both teams are certainly win and in IMO.
- I don't see ACU in the discussion at all, nor do I see EKU in it at all. (Maybe if SEMO loses, EKU gets some consideration).
- Southland Conference could be a one bid league...that conference did not perform well at all...their "2nd bid" could be lost to a school like North Dakota.

Finally the Brawl of the Wild:
Montana wins, they are 7-4 and look pretty good, but it gives WIU a win over a team in the field. That puts Montana State on the bubble with WIU, not necessarily a good thing since they have the head to head...
Montana State wins, they are probably in at 7-4.

Going to be a fun day, but lets get the W and have more fun posting later on!!
wiu712
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Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:12 am

35 and cloudy this morning in Macomb. Won't get much warmer than that. 15 degrees below normal. Rain / snow showers in the afternoon. One inch of snow this afternoon. Could get as much as three inches of snow tonight.

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RedNeck
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Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:06 am

wiu712 wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:12 am
35 and cloudy this morning in Macomb. Won't get much warmer than that. 15 degrees below normal. Rain / snow showers in the afternoon. One inch of snow this afternoon. Could get as much as three inches of snow tonight.

Image
I think we have enough data by now to change our local
Köppen climate classification system it's been a good 60 years since there has been any reclassification. *Sigh* cool crisp Autumn days with the leaves gold, and firery red with temps in the 50s feel like a distant memory. Our planet hates us now.
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