WIU vs Northern Iowa (11/12/2016)
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:03 pm
VS 
Date/Time: Saturday, November 12 at 1 PM
Location:Western’s own Hanson Field
Weather Forecast (as of 11/10): High of 53 forecasted, 50 at kickoff, ~50% humidity, clear/sunny, very little wind (still can’t get over how beautiful the weather has been this season)
TV: Like all MVFC matchups this season, available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Links:
- Stat Tracking for the game: http://www.sidearmstats.com/wiu/football/
- UNI’s Message Board (remember, don’t be a troll): http://www.panthernation.com/forumdisplay.php?f=7
- UNI’s Football Website: http://www.unipanthers.com/index.aspx?path=football
- UNI’s Football Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/UNIPantherFootball/
- UNI’s Football Twitter: https://twitter.com/UNIFootball
The Panthers are currently 4-5 overall, 3-3 in the MVFC.
They have wins over:
- Iowa State (25-20)
- Southern Illinois (42-21)
- Missouri State (61-7)
- Indiana State (39-6)
- Montana (20-14)
- Eastern Washington (34-30)
- South Dakota (28-25)
- Youngstown State (14-10)
- North Dakota State (24-20)
The History
We’ve played the Panthers a total of 44 times going back to 1967, and every year back to 1978. Overall, we have a 14-30 record against UNI, although there have been some very memorable wins in that timeframe. The ‘97 2OT win at Homecoming where a late UNI TD made it look like they’d win, but a bobble on the XP and return for 85 yards for a 2-pt defensive conversion took the game to OT where WIU won on a Aaron Stecker 25-yard TD run….the ‘00 win at the UNIDome on a last-second 56-yard Mike Scifres FG to win the game, the conference championship, and the Gateway Conference auto-bid to the playoffs...the 16-point defeat of the conference champion in 2010 to secure a playoff spot...and of course last year’s win at the UNIDome where Aaron Diggs had a 95-yard pick-6.
Team Stat Analysis
Here’s the team’s stat comparisons courtesy of the NCAA.
So, looking at the comparisons between the two teams, UNI has one of the best defenses in the country...while we...well….we do not. We definitely have talent, but have some youth and inexperience combined with a few key injuries that have hurt. UNI’s strong suit is their front line guys (I’ll talk about them in just a bit), who only gives up an average of 120 yards per game on the ground, 19.3 points per game, and includes the guy who is currently #1 in the FCS in sacks. We are, however, the best team in the conference at preventing sacks, so it’ll be interesting to see how they do on that front. UNI also has a very good turnover margin, averaging +1 per game, in large part to them being the #2 team in the FCS for interceptions, with a 1.8 per game average.
Key Opposition Players
DL Karter Schult - why am I starting with a D-lineman?...well, he’s that guy who is #1 in the country for sacks, averaging 1.44 per game, along with 6.8 tackles per game. He’s the best D-Lineman in the MVFC, if not all of the FCS.
LB Jared Farley - Leads the team averaging 7.3 tackles per game. If the name sounds familiar, it’s because his dad is the head coach.
DB Malcolm Washington - Leads the team for interceptions with 4. They also have two other players with 3 interceptions and another with 2.
QB Eli Dunne - Has really only played 2 full games this season. Had a few attempts in their game against YSU, after the regular starting QB Bailey had a hard hit and sat out of the game for a little bit. However, after that loss at YSU, Bailey was benched and Dunne got the start. He played against MSU and NDSU, averaging 317 yards and 2 TDs per game passing. He did have a bit of a rough go with NDSU though, throwing 4 interceptions in that game. Dunne was injured and sat out their next game at Indiana State, but I’ve heard that he will be starting against us this weekend (his 3rd career start). He’s good, but young and inexperienced, so we might be able to exploit that some.
WR Marcus Weymiller - Not great numbers for the season (looks like he might have played a little, but never touched the ball until last weekend). At Indiana State, however, Weymiller (again...he’s listed as a WR?)...rushed for 171 yards on 9 carries. How’s that work?...wildcat...apparently with the starting QB out with injury (and the replacements throwing for a total of 121 passing yards), they mostly went with Weymiller taking snaps from the Wildcat and running.
RB Michael Malloy - seems like they’ve decided he’s their “go-to” guy at the goal line, picking up 3 TDs against Indiana State last week and 2 against Missouri State. He also doubled his previous high for number of carries in a game last week with 18 runs.
RB Tyvis Smith - technically leads the team in rushing yards with 597 (also 3 TDs), but really took a back seat to Weymiller and Malloy last weekend. Not sure if that’s due to injury or what, and if he might be back this week.
The Game
So, Dunne will be back this week, which is probably good news for the UNI offense, since the “replacement” offense relied more on the run game, which we’re a bit better at stopping, and Dunne is a MUCH better passer than anyone else on their roster. We’ll really have to do a good job of keeping the ball out of the DBs hands...they can be pretty grabby...don’t need any more pick-sixes. Despite UNI’s record, they really should be a playoff team, especially how they’ve been playing lately, although if they don’t win their last two games (against us and SDSU) pretty convincingly, they won’t be in it. We can win this game, but we have to play much better than we have been playing. I think the guys will come out energized against UNI (as opposed to the ISU game last weekend...bleh) and put together a mostly complete game. We’ll probably have to conduct much of the offense through the air, so I think we’ll see pretty good games yardage-wise out of Lenoir, Borsellino, and maybe Lesure. Run game will probably have trouble unless McShane and Gilmore are able to slip through the line and find some space. Not too worried about stopping the run game, but defending the pass could be an issue.
I think UNI has the overall advantage, but it’s not by a giant amount or anything. Most places give us better odds than we had against NDSU, and if it weren’t for a couple of key plays, we easily could have won that game, so it’s winnable, but we’ll have to play solid, mistake-free football to do it. I’m hoping we will, so my prediction will reflect that...high scoring, lots of passing yards on both sides...probably something around a 40-36 Leatherneck win to finish out the the last home game of the season (barring some playoff craziness).