Leatherneck Nation

Win or done is what you're saying? Margin of victory is helpful, but it is the win that matters. A UNI win is somewhat problematic, but I believe we still get in. Not many teams better than a 7-4 WIU on the bubble.

Going to be a fun Saturday.

Not a whole lot of talk on AGS about a 7-4 Western team NOT getting in. Most centered on Big Sky and which 6-5 is better.

If they blow next week, they're out. Frankly, I'm not sure they can pull this season out of the toilet.

What started off so well has completely turned to a disaster. I don't know what caused the wheels to fall off, but whatever it was it's been horrible. Special teams looked like the had turned themselves around, but we find out not so much. Defensive secondary is not good. I realize they are very young, but they don't get any points on the board for that. Offense seems to have completely dwindled out. I know we're concentrating on the run game, but the pass game doesn't appear to be there anymore.

I was only able to listen to the radio broadcast of the game - ESPN3 appeared to have crashed or something - but I kept hearing about how close Sean was to having multiple passes intercepted. Has he regressed from the beginning of the year?

I guess the only thing to do is think like a Cub fan (at least, before this year).....maybe next year.

Oh, and thanks for letting me rant. I still love this team, but sometimes frustration just gets to me.

rocki wrote:If they blow next week, they're out. Frankly, I'm not sure they can pull this season out of the toilet.

What started off so well has completely turned to a disaster. I don't know what caused the wheels to fall off, but whatever it was it's been horrible. Special teams looked like the had turned themselves around, but we find out not so much. Defensive secondary is not good. I realize they are very young, but they don't get any points on the board for that. Offense seems to have completely dwindled out. I know we're concentrating on the run game, but the pass game doesn't appear to be there anymore.

I was only able to listen to the radio broadcast of the game - ESPN3 appeared to have crashed or something - but I kept hearing about how close Sean was to having multiple passes intercepted. Has he regressed from the beginning of the year?

I guess the only thing to do is think like a Cub fan (at least, before this year).....maybe next year.

Oh, and thanks for letting me rant. I still love this team, but sometimes frustration just gets to me.

Come on Rocki my man...let's have some faith in our Leathernecks and their ability to beat SIU this weekend.

Not making excuses but we happened to have played two of the hottest teams in the Valley. We spotted both teams a 2 touchdown lead in the first quarter which is hard to overcome but the kids still didn't quit! We fought back in the 2nd half and it's not like we're getting blown out. Just so happened our schedule was back end loaded and not one time have we gotten it handed to us. We fought hard all the way to the end and had chances to win all 3 recent losses.

If you would have seen the game...Sean was under pressure all day long and got pounded on several times. Our O-Line as good as it is just had an off day and Northern Iowa's defensive front was very good. UNI did a good job on Lance but he worked his butt Saturday to get open and makes the catches he did and score two TD's.

As far as special teams go...1000 percent improved this year EXCEPT field goals and extra points. That part is frustrating to me as well. We have to do a better job blocking up the middle.

I'm keeping the faith that our boys get it done this week but in order to that we need to be able to run the ball and keep our defense off the field. They are playing too much of the game!

LN57

My brother from Aurora took the Amtrak down for Saturday's game. There was a sizable group of Western fans also on the train.

The 1PM games are ideal for Amtrak travelers. The morning train arrives in Macomb just before 11 AM. The train back north leaves at 6:18 PM.

If we have any techies out there, I dug up a little info on the Simple Ratings System algorithm. It is indeed a very
simple and elegant way to factor in the two main ingredients to a sports ranking system which are 1, how you play,
and 2, who you play.

For example, given a league of 4 teams (a, b, c, d) with all teams playing each other (3 game schedule) and known average margins of victory (AMV) for each team, you have four equations with four unknowns to solve:

R_a = AMV_a + (1/3) (R_b + R_c + R_d)
R_b = AMV_b + (1/3) (R_a + R_c + R_d)
R_c = AMV_c + (1/3) (R_a + R_b + R_d)
R_d = AMV_d + (1/3) (R_a + R_b + R_c)

I think I read somewhere that when it comes to computing AMVs, the NCAA adjusts close wins (losses) to +7 (-7) and blowouts
to +24 (-24) but don't hold me to this.

There is an online site you can use to solve equations like this:

http://www.quickmath.com/webMathematica ... vanced.jsp

Numbers are so much fun, fun, fun. If we had a couple more in the Win column this year, they would be even more fun.
Instead, we are left with worry, worry, worry.

UPDATE: After some more research, margins of victory might not be part of the NCAA FCS puzzle. Back in 2014, the committee apparently wanted them put into the equation, but they later changed their collective minds about it. Still digging, .....

Leatherneck57 wrote:If you would have seen the game...Sean was under pressure all day long and got pounded on several times. Our O-Line as good as it is just had an off day and Northern Iowa's defensive front was very good. UNI did a good job on Lance but he worked his butt Saturday to get open and makes the catches he did and score two TD's.

Exactly...our guys lined up across from the best D-lineman in the entire FCS on Saturday.
Take a look at the FCS's individual sack leaders: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/ ... ividual/36
Specifically, #1. Look at his number of sacks and number of sacks per game and compare that to the guys right behind him. He's not "just barely" at #1....he's head and shoulders above even #2...he has half-again more sacks per game than the #2 guy.

For comparison, that'd be like if you looked at the rushing yards stats for the season so far (http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/ ... vidual/469) and ahead of #1 Chase Edmonds at 1,618 yards, there was one guy with over 2,400 yards. It's that big of a difference.

Karter Schult is an absolute beast and the best D-lineman we have faced or will face this entire season. Oh, and his 3 sacks against us was his best performance this season. I don't think that's a knock against our o-line, but a comment about Schult just being "locked-in" this game. When a guy that good is playing at the best of his ability, there's very few o-linemen in all of college football that could stop him.

ST_Lawson wrote:

Leatherneck57 wrote:If you would have seen the game...Sean was under pressure all day long and got pounded on several times. Our O-Line as good as it is just had an off day and Northern Iowa's defensive front was very good. UNI did a good job on Lance but he worked his butt Saturday to get open and makes the catches he did and score two TD's.

Exactly...our guys lined up across from the best D-lineman in the entire FCS on Saturday.
Take a look at the FCS's individual sack leaders: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/ ... ividual/36
Specifically, #1. Look at his number of sacks and number of sacks per game and compare that to the guys right behind him. He's not "just barely" at #1....he's head and shoulders above even #2...he has half-again more sacks per game than the #2 guy.

For comparison, that'd be like if you looked at the rushing yards stats for the season so far (http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/ ... vidual/469) and ahead of #1 Chase Edmonds at 1,618 yards, there was one guy with over 2,400 yards. It's that big of a difference.

Karter Schult is an absolute beast and the best D-lineman we have faced or will face this entire season. Oh, and his 3 sacks against us was his best performance this season. I don't think that's a knock against our o-line, but a comment about Schult just being "locked-in" this game. When a guy that good is playing at the best of his ability, there's very few o-linemen in all of college football that could stop him.

I need to watch the game again, but the sacks I heard about on radio while ESPN crapped out were described by Dr. Tom as more of the pocket collapsing kind, not like the QB was being chased down. Did McGuire ever roll out or move the pocket to the side away from Schult? The devil is always in the details.

sealhall74 wrote:I need to watch the game again, but the sacks I heard about on radio while ESPN crapped out were described by Dr. Tom as more of the pocket collapsing kind, not like the QB was being chased down. Did McGuire ever roll out or move the pocket to the side away from Schult? The devil is always in the details.

Yes, mostly due to pocket collapsing...mostly due to Karter Schult being able to completely bowl over two linemen to get to the QB. McGuire did occasionally move out of the pocket to make a play work or to run with the ball, but generally the o-line is very good at giving him time to work and he's very good at being patient to try to find receivers. UNI's d-line was just not allowing them the time that they are used to having.

ST_Lawson wrote:

sealhall74 wrote:I need to watch the game again, but the sacks I heard about on radio while ESPN crapped out were described by Dr. Tom as more of the pocket collapsing kind, not like the QB was being chased down. Did McGuire ever roll out or move the pocket to the side away from Schult? The devil is always in the details.

Yes, mostly due to pocket collapsing...mostly due to Karter Schult being able to completely bowl over two linemen to get to the QB. McGuire did occasionally move out of the pocket to make a play work or to run with the ball, but generally the o-line is very good at giving him time to work and he's very good at being patient to try to find receivers. UNI's d-line was just not allowing them the time that they are used to having.

And yet other teams found a way to beat them..........regardless of Karter Schult.