Re: Updates to faculty layoff plan and other stuff
Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:46 am
You know what they say though...correlation does not imply causation.sealhall74 wrote:It seems to me that that bigger more populous states without Right to Work laws (e.g. Illinois) are losing a whole lot of people to other states. Maybe Rauner has the right idea on this matter. You look at these two maps and judge for yourself.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... hat-arent/
http://www.nrtw.org/rtws.htm
There do appear to be plenty of states without "Right to Work" laws that people are migrating to: Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, much of the west minus California
And states that do not have "Right to work" laws where people are leaving: Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, California
However, there are also states without "right to work" laws that people are strongly migrating to: Washington, Oregon, Colorado
And states that do have "right to work" laws that people are leaving: Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming
What I see from those maps is that "right to work" laws may have a small impact, but it's much more strongly influenced by general population and job trends.
Where are traditional manufacturing jobs that are going overseas leaving from (mostly)...the rust belt...the states with the largest drops.
Where do large % of age groups go when they hit retirement age....the southeast and southwest...people move to Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Texas, Arizona.
What has been the largest age group of recent history...the baby boomers...who are now in the recent/near retirement age.
And what jobs are taking over in high demand: health care (for all the aging baby boomers...many of whom are living in the southeast and southwest)....tech personnel (software developers, network administrators, computer systems analysts...areas that have seen large amounts of growth in newer tech areas...Portland, Seattle, Austin, Denver, Carolina research triangle...etc.
So, you have large populations of people retiring and moving south. Traditional manufacturing jobs that are leaving (and honestly, most are never coming back, no matter what any politician says), and growth in jobs that cater to the retiring and moving baby boomers.
Another thing to keep in mind is that as a % of the total population of a state, Illinois migration is actually significantly lower than many states, including nearby "Right to work" state, Wisconsin. Illinois has a much higher population, so while our overall numbers might be high, our numbers as compared to the total population are actually rather low.