Leatherneck Nation

Here is a article written by Matt Zimmer of the Argus Leader. This represents how Mr. Zimmer voted for the MVFC standings and All-Conference players. http://www.argusleader.com/story/blogs/ ... /86986060/

Mr. Zimmer either believes WIU was extremely lucky last year, or that the coaching change will be tough for WIU to over.

I'm curious to hear what others think.

I would flipflop WIU and Indiana State. Hoping for better than that, but IMO, a new head coach + entirely new system + staff probably does not fare too well in his first year when he is forced use a lot of players from the previous system. But you never know - maybe we were big underachievers under the previous system. I know we let a couple of games slip away for reasons that still have me scratching my head.

I think we will be better than last year. Our offense was unimaginative and underperformed. Our special teams were a big problem. When we rectify those two problems, we will win more games. So, since Coach Fisher is a great offensive mind and since we are changing our approach to special teams--hiring a special teams coach--we should be significantly better. Changing to a better offensive system is not going to hold us back.

I'll get more into what I think we'll see when I do my season preview later in the summer, but there's a guy who puts together a game simulator and he's updated it for 2016 now (http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index ... m_oneonone). You can matchup any team and run a 1-game simulation, or for more "accurate" results, a 100 game series and see what the "average outcome" is.

He shared a link (on AGS) that listed all the team's rankings and predicted W-L results. Here's what those rankings said (rounding games whenever possible):
1. NDSU - 10-1
2. ISUr - 8.5-2.5
3. UNI - 8-2
4. SDSU - 7-4
5. YSU - 7-4
6. SIU - 7-4
7. WIU - 5-6
8. ISUb - 4-7
9. USD - 3-8
10. MSU - 1-9

Personally I think ISUr is a bit too high considering they lost a large part of their offense from last year. Obviously I'm hoping for a bit better finish than 5-6 for us, but with a neutral ranking, without knowing much about the new coaching staff (and how they'll interact with players) and considering we were 6-5 last year...I'd say 5-6 is a valid estimate. It's not what I expect that we'll see, and of course, not what I'd like to see, but it's fair....for now.

Someone else ran the 100-game simulation for each conference game and came up with the following:
8-0 NDSU
7-1 ISUr
7-1 UNI
5-3 SDSU
4-4 YSU
4-4 SIU
3-5 WIU
2-6 ISUb
0-8 MSU
0-8 USD

I like seeing USD down at 0-8, but not a fan of us at 3-5 and below SIU and YSU....I think we'll be ahead of them at the end of the season. Anyway, I'll post more of my thoughts when it gets closer to the start of the season.

Just one guy's opinion, but I too thought he was off. So here is my 2 cents. Minus MSU, the whole conference could make a playoff run, so it's not easy to "guestimate" in the MVFC.

NDSU will be in the playoffs unless something drastic happens, but nothing else is a lock.

UNI will have to replace some key pieces on D (Hall, Dorleant, Kilroy, McMakin), but will again be a contender like they've been for years.

ISUr lost 2 of the best players they've ever had. Pretty hard to replace those guys and eliminating the huge dual run threat will limit Warrum's wide open TD's. Also down top talent in Corwin and Perkins on D. Haven't seen anything yet, but maybe they'll be reloading with transfers. No lock here.

SDSU brings basically everyone back, so expect them to continue to be a playoff caliber team.

YSU has a ton of talent coming back and on paper could be towards the top of the class. Can they overcome the years of pissing away season with talent?

ISUb is hurt by the loss of Adam for the year. Will make them less explosive and should bump them down lower on the list. Lost their leading tackler and though banged up most the year the loss of Underwood hurts. Would put them next to SIU.

USD could be a good team and maybe they're better with Bob, but have a tough time putting them above WIU. They're losing a ton of starters on D. Including their best player in Van Ginkel who transferred, they're leading tackler, top interior d-lineman, a multi year starter at LB and CB.

SIU probably isn't going to contend this year, but I didn't want to lump them in with MSU. Like Nick Hill and think he'll do good things there, but don't believe they have the pieces this year to compete week in and week out. They lost a lot of really close games last year, but lost a beast in Iannotti who put and kept them in those games. Guess you never know and I may be way off on this one.

WIU........We snuck into the playoffs and beat a non scholarship team and have a new staff and what???? Somehow that puts us just above MSU. Last years team earned a playoff spot, beat a playoff team, have a new system that's potentially better and potentially a better HC. Yes we lost Nikko who carried the load, but other than that only other losses were Ricketts on O, Ricketts on D and Harley (big fan of all 3). Minus Nikko all are replaceable with guys who have plenty of experience. We have a bunch of guys to potentially step up at RB and the rest of the team will be even better than last year.

MSU is going to be MSU. I pull for them to turn it around and hope they pickup some good wins this year. Just not against us.

Right, we have a ton of returning talent...and that's the guys that are actually on the field doing the work. Coaches can make a difference, but it's the players who go out there and play the game.

There's a pretty smart guy over on AGS (anygivensaturday.com) putting together a MVFC "weekly fantasy league" (we're going to test it out this year, make some refinements and really try to push it out there in 2017) and he did an analysis of returning stats for each team and ranked them.

Statistically, we have the #1 returning defense, the #3 returning WR corps, #8 returning running attacks (not surprising considering Watson got most of the rushing yardage last year) and the #2 returning QB production (regardless of who is starting, both of those guys will be on the team in 2016). So overall of the returning players, #1 defense and somewhere around the #4 offense, although, because of how much higher our defensive stat numbers are than everyone else, we're actually #1 in the league for returning "fantasy stats". Now, that doesn't correlate directly to number of wins, obviously, but it does bode well for the experience and talent of our team this next year.

Also, the guy is a UNI fan, so he doesn't have any reason to bringing in any biases that might favor Western over anyone else.
If you want to see his full league numbers, the team totals are in this post: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... ost2350907
And the breakdown for the various "sections" is here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... ost2350930