WIU at Northern Illinois (9/24/2016)
Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:13 am
AT 
It’s time for the annual FBS game...time to head into a big stadium, get tested against the “big boys”, get demolished “big time”, and go home with a big check…...ah, but something is a bit different this year. The “big” stadium isn’t quite so big (holds about 23,500 fans), the “big boy” is a MAC team that hasn’t been doing so well, and something tells me, we won’t likely get demolished “big time” this year (I don’t know about the check...haven’t seen how much we’re getting paid to play this game).
“Oh, but it’s Northern Illinois. They were in the top 25 in the FBS fairly recently and went to bowl games the last 8 years including the Orange Bowl four years ago”...you might say. That is all true, but they have had some SERIOUS struggles lately.
NIU lost the first 3 games of the season: 40-34 in overtime in Laramie against a bad Wyoming team, a 48-17 blowout at South Florida, and then losing 42-28 to a pretty good San Diego State team back in DeKalb (that was actually closer than I expected it to be). They lost their starting QB for the season with a leg injury….it really sucks for the kid, but I can’t deny that it might help our chances. And there’s been quite a few rumors and “stories” flying around about the players not getting along with the coach starting at some point last year. This lack of unity has shown itself in the string of 3 losses to start the season (and 6 in a row if you go back to last year).
So, on to the details:
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24 at 2:30 PM
Location: NIU’s Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
Weather Forecast (as of 9/19): 76 degrees and partly cloudy, minimal chance of rain, light winds.
TV: ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Tickets: You can get tickets directly through NIU, but it’s not easy, they don’t have an easy online form for ordering single-game tickets (gotta print it off, fill it out, and mail it in) and really, the tickets are $25 through NIU, or if you just get them through WIU’s Alumni Office, where, for $5 more, you also get admission to the pregame social (including food) which will likely be packed with Leatherneck fans (http://www.wiu.edu/wiucalendar/index.sp ... w&id=29755).
Links:
- Stat Tracking site for the game: http://www.sidearmstats.com/niu/football/ (won’t be live with our game until Saturday probably)
- NIU’s Message Board (don’t go trolling, please): http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=468
- NIU’s Football Website: http://www.niuhuskies.com/index.aspx?path=football
- NIU’s Football Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NIUFootball/?fref=nf
- NIU’s Football Twitter: https://twitter.com/NIU_Football
Last year, NIU finished 8-5 in the regular season and then got steamrolled by Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl to the tune of 55-7.
So far this season, NIU is 0-3...now, a couple of those were against pretty good teams, but the season opener against Wyoming….well...Wyoming is not a good team. The last time the Huskies went 0-3 to start the season was 2007, when they finished 2-10 (including a loss to Southern Illinois) and was the last season for longtime (12-year) coach Joe Novak. Novak was fired, NIU brought in that SIU coach that beat them, Jerry Kill, and the rest is history.
The History
Now usually when it’s time to talk about a game against an FBS opponent, we don’t have much in the way of a history between us and them. As many of you are aware, this is not the case with Northern Illinois. From the 1920s to the 1970s, we spent most of the time in the same conference together, so we used to play them quite often. We actually played them every year from 1940 to 1966. Since NIU went I-AA in 1983, we have played them much less frequently.
Our overall record against the Huskies is 17-21-1 (so, it’s tilted in their favor slightly). What’s interesting though is our record against them since they went I-A/FBS and we stayed I-AA/FCS. We actually have an even record against them...4-4...over that timeframe, highlighted by three straight wins against them in ‘96 (17-0), ‘99 (27-21), and ‘02 (29-26). And remember, since they were I-A/FBS...all of those 8 games (that we’re .500 on) were at DeKalb, so we never had home field advantage. Also, in games that I’ve attended at NIU, Western is 3-1...and we’re headed to this one too.
One interesting story amongst this was that during the ‘99 game, the NIU QB was someone many of us will recognize...Frisman Jackson. Following the ‘99 season, Jackson would transfer to Western, would have quite a bit of success for us at WR (with occasional stints as QB on trick plays and stuff) and ended up playing for 6 seasons in the NFL before joining the coaching ranks.
The most recent game we played against Northern, however, we happened to catch them on the upswing of their recent success (second year of Jerry Kill) while we were in the midst of a “rebuilding year” (it was the split Patterson/Hendrickson year where we finished 1-10) and we got blown out 41-7.
Team Stat Analysis
Now that we’re a few games in for most teams, we can start to see a few trends, although most won’t really show up until each team’s conference season starts up. You can view the full list of statistical rankings for NIU here: http://on.ncaa.com/2cxWZBX but here’s a few things that stand out to me (and keep in mind, these rankings are in the FBS, so they’re being compared with the “big boys”:
It looks like NIU gets penalized quite a bit. They’re 116th in “fewest penalty yards”, racking up 86.33 penalty yards per game (as opposed to our 42.5, 18th in the FCS)
NIU gives up quite a bit of kickoff return yardage (30.75 yards per, 125th in the FBS)
NIU’s rushing defense is 122nd in the FBS, giving up 271.3 ypg on the ground (McShane show again maybe?)
They’re 125th in sacks with .33 per game (I guess, if they’ve played 3 games, that means a total of 1 sack for all their games played).
Their turnover margin is 76th in the FBS with -0.33, whereas we are 12th in the FCS with 1.5 per game.
In total yards, their offense is 85th in the FBS, putting up 382.7 yards per game, and their defense is 121st, giving up 516.7 yards per game.
Compare that to us...we’re 21st in total offense, putting up 443.0 yards per game, and 92nd in total defense, giving up 446.5 yards per game.
Scoring-wise, NIU is 88th on offense (26.3 ppg) and 120th on defense (43.3 ppg)
WIU is 20th on offense (36.0 ppg) and 25th on defense (20.5 ppg)
What this tells me is that their offense is halfway decent at offense (a bit better at the pass than they are at the run), but they do not have a very good defense (and are really bad at stopping the run...which I think helps play to our strengths).
Key Opposition Players
Sr WR Kenny Golladay - has been a large % of the offense, especially on the TD front. He’s caught for 86.3 yards per game and 3 TDs and rushed for 35.7 ypg and 2 TDs. His average per catch is 13.6 ypc and per run, he’s 10.7 ypc. Last season he was second team all-MAC and on the Biletnikoff Award Watch list.
Jr TB Jordan Huff & Sr TB Joel Bouagnon - the team’s top two rushers both have between 42 and 48 yards per game (no TDs between them yet). They’ve also caught for between 15 and 20 yards per game. Huff also has 25.2 yards per kick return.
Sr WR Aregeros Turner - has rushed and caught for a TD each (fairly minimal yardage on both though) but also handles a good number of the kick return duties, averaging 22.0 yards per and a long of 36. It’s also rumored that he’s having some personal issues and may actually sit out the game
Jr LB Bobby Jones - 28 total tackles, 4 for loss (including 1 sack)
Jr S Mycial Allen - 22 total tackles, 2 for loss, 1 INT
Jr S Brandon Mayes - 20 total tackles
The Game
Ok, so NIU is not a very good team….however, they’re not a very good team for an FBS team, still, I like this matchup...like…..REALLY like this matchup. I think this is the best chance we’ve had to beat an FBS team in probably a decade. They did play a bit better this last weekend than they did the previous two weekends, but we still have a very good chance to take this one.
They are not great on defense, especially run defense. We are great on offense, especially run offense...really both are great, but I think run defense is our strength right now (despite Lenoir and Lesure going catch-wild last game).
It sounds like they’re fairly solid offensively, but honestly, not significantly better than the last two teams we played (and EIU is just looking better and better every week). There’s obviously things we still need to look out for...they are an FBS team, so they should have a bit more depth than we do.
They had 14.5k fans at their game last weekend on apparently beautiful day against a team just outside the top 25. They’re now 3-0 and playing an FCS team (or as far as most of their fans are concerned...DII or something), so I don’t think I’m worried too much about their crowd. There may be more fans there in total, but probably only because we might bring a decent crowd from the suburbs.
I think if we play solid, fairly mistake-free football, we’ve got a good shot at winning this one. Honestly, this game will be easier than a couple of conference games this season (I’m looking at you, Bison). Seems like about half of their fans on their own message board are predicting a win for Western (and a firing of their HC).
Massey ratings has NIU with about a 4 point advantage, although it sounds like that’s almost entirely from home-field advantage, which I don’t think will be that big of a deal this time. We’ll have a decent crowd (there’s 5 in my crew going up for it). We have 23 players on the roster from the Chicago area, so, while NIU has a bunch from the area too, I’m sure, we should have a decent number of players friends and family coming over for the game as well...and they’ll want to play well for them also.
Overall, I like the 4-point margin...but I like it the other direction. I think Western wins by about 4...we give up yardage in the air, but hold them when it counts, and McShane runs for ~170 yards and 2 TDs.
Misc Stuff
Not sure there’s too much else to say. I’m not going to do an analysis of former HS teammates like I did last time with NAU, because with so many kids from the Chicago area on both teams, it would take forever. Suffice it to say, I’m sure that some of our players are familiar with many of their players, either from being on the same teams with them, or playing against them in their conference or whatever.
Interesting side-note and completely unrelated to the game...the only time I’ve ever broken a bone, I was playing ultimate frisbee...in sandals (dumb, I know)...on the NIU football field.