Leatherneck Nation

Found this interesting tidbit.

This guy has some interesting perspectives.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footba ... ndefeated/

Not a list you want to be on but I think the 80-20 rule still applies.

The bottom 20% of FBS will beat the top 20% of FCS 80% of the time.

sealhall74 wrote:Not a list you want to be on but I think the 80-20 rule still applies.

The bottom 20% of FBS will beat the top 20% of FCS 80% of the time.

80-20 huh, I guess some one with time and skills could run the data on match-ups in those respective categories.

What I do know is:

#1 FCS > than #17 FBS in week 3

I will be interested to see how #13 FCS matches up with #112 FBS in week 4 (not my FBS #, the guy from the article's FBS #)

Currently the odds makers are giving us roughly 45% chance for a win, that's considerably higher than your 20% theory Seal, but we shall see anything can happen.

WIU is in top 5% of FCS using Massey Composite rankings which is what I would go on. Northern Arizona is currently number 25 in that ranking and NIU wins 77% of the time against them on a neutral field. I think I will run the numbers. 80% might be a little high but my educated guess is somewhere between 70 and 80. Also have to factor in that the FCS boys are always on the road in these games and that will make a big difference (e.g. NIU wins 82% of time on their field against NAU).

Maybe I'm dense. But, ya lost me there Seal with all these NIU vs. NAU references.

RedNeck wrote:Maybe I'm dense. But, ya lost me there Seal with all these NIU vs. NAU references.

I should have been clearer. NAU is at the bottom of the top 20% of FCS teams.

Well, the answer about how the worst FBS teams compare with the top FCS teams is hot off the press. I was not able to do a full 20% comparison (about 25 teams give or take) because of some technical issues. Instead, I chopped the comparison off at exactly 20 teams from each group.

Using the Massey Matchup function pairing up the 20 FBS teams against the 20 FCS teams (400 games), we get the following answer.

FBS Favorites = 75
FCS Favorites = 325

My educated guess of the FBS being favored in 70-80% of the games was not even in the ball park.

sealhall74 wrote:Well, the answer about how the worst FBS teams compare with the top FCS teams is hot off the press. I was not able to do a full 20% comparison (about 25 teams give or take) because of some technical issues. Instead, I chopped the comparison off at exactly 20 teams from each group.

Using the Massey Matchup function pairing up the 20 FBS teams against the 20 FCS teams (400 games), we get the following answer.

FBS Favorites = 75
FCS Favorites = 325

My educated guess of the FBS being favored in 70-80% of the games was not even in the ball park.

So, what you're saying essentially is that in a round-robin format tournament with the 20 worst FBS teams and the 20 best FCS teams, then the FCS teams would win ~81% of the games? That sounds about right.

You're looking at teams like Idaho, Eastern Michigan, New Mexico State, North Texas, Buffalo, etc. going against teams like NDSU, UNI, Chattanooga, Eastern Washington, Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, Illinois State, ourselves, etc....many of which already have FBS wins over better teams.

I'd believe it. There's 15 FCS teams ranked ahead of the worst 20 FBS teams in the current Sagarin ranking, so something in the range of roughly 3/4 of games going to the FCS sounds about right.

Northern Illinois isn't in the bottom 20 of FBS at this point, but they are behind the 10 top FCS teams (we're #7 out of the FCS in that ranking).

This might be an indictment on my intelligence, I have no doubt about Seals' research but I am doubting his ability to effectively communicate it.

Probably everyone else understands your previous posts but I know that I find them to be confusing.

RedNeck wrote:This might be an indictment on my intelligence, I have no doubt about Seals' research but I am doubting his ability to effectively communicate it.

Probably everyone else understands your previous posts but I know that I find them to be confusing.

The bottom 20% of FBS will beat the top 20% of FCS 80% of the time. I think you are saying that wrong.