Leatherneck Nation

AT

Date/Time: Saturday, October 15 at 2:04 PM (really?....04?)
Location: MSU’s Plaster Stadium (seats 17,500)
Weather Forecast (as of 10/10): 78 and clear, ~60% humidity, 0% chance of rain, a bit of a breeze (~17 MPH)
TV: Like all MVFC matchups this season, available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Links:

• Stat Tracking for the game: http://www.sidearmstats.com/missourista ... all/media/
• MSU’s Message Board (remember, don’t be a troll): http://missouristate.247sports.com/Boar ... orum-59469
• MSU’s Football Website: http://missouristatebears.com/index.aspx?path=football
• MSU’s Football Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MoStateFootball
• MSU’s Football Twitter: https://twitter.com/MOStateFootball

MSU’s Record
MSU is currently 3-2 overall, 1-1 in the MVFC.
They have wins over:

• NAIA Southwestern College (currently 0-5)
• Murray State (currently 1-4)
• Indiana State (currently 3-3)

Losses against:

• FBS Kansas State (currently 3-2)
• North Dakota State (currently 5-0)

The History
One of the more recent and least-played of the series between two original Gateway Conference members, Western and Missouri State have played a total of 33 times starting in 1981. Western holds a 15-17-1 record against the Bears, and somewhat surprisingly, MSU has a 5 game win streak against Western currently (because we didn’t play them in the last two years).

Also, Missouri State is the other conference team (like South Dakota) that has in years past "stolen" a good coach from Western, when Coach Randy Ball left Western to go to Missouri State (or maybe they were still Southwest Missouri State at that point) after the 1998 season. It was ok though...we ended up getting Coach Patterson.

Team Stat Analysis

To start off with, here’s the full stat comparison between the two teams from the NCAA.

And I also want to mention that in terms of Strength of Schedule for teams we’ve played so far, Western currently has the 21st toughest schedule in the FCS. Missouri State is at #57.

So, in general, looking at the rankings, we have a better offense overall (both on the ground and through the air), but they have the better defense in both aspects (at least, statistically). One big discrepancy that I see between the two teams is play in the red zone. Our RZ defense is ranked 6th in the FCS vs MSU at 82. On offense in the RZ, we’re ranked 28th in the FCS and they are ranked 100. They’ve lost 7 fumbles this season (108th in the FCS), but we’ve only lost 1 (4th in the FCS). In general, it looks like their ground game is a little stronger than their passing game.

Key Opposition Players
LB Dylan Cole - 50 total tackles this season (averaging just over 11 per game...there’s technically 5 games on their record, but K-State game was called at halftime, so statistically, I’m counting that as a half game), is 3rd in the FCS in forced fumbles and 22nd in the FCS in total tackles.

WR Deion Holliman - leads the team in all-purpose yards with 110.8 per game, mostly due to his kick returns (15th in the FCS), averaging 25.9 yards per kick return (with 1 TD).

WR Malik Earl - Leads the team with 68.2 yards per game and a long of 69 with 2 TDs. He’s not on the level of Lenoir, but with our pass defense still being rather suspect, he could still do ok.

QB Brodie Lambert - played in 4 games this season after starting QB Breck Ruddick was suspended for allegedly abusing a dog. He’s currently averaging 115.2 passing yards per game and has 3 TDs. He isn’t really a running threat, however, with a -9.8 yard per game average.

RB Calan Crowder - 55.2 rushing yards per game and 4 TDs. Averages 5.9 yards per rush.

The Game

Overall, I think we match up pretty favorably with the Bears. They’ve got a pretty decent defense, but if we’re playing well, I still think we have one of the best offenses in the conference (behind SDSU probably). Going the other direction, they rush more than they pass, which, I think plays into our defensive strength on the ground. They’ll likely play tough because it’s their Homecoming, but I think we’re still the better team. I think we’ll probably come away with about a 10-point win in this one.

Thoughts?

As usual great analysis

ST_Lawson wrote:Date/Time: Saturday, October 15 at 2:04 PM (really?....04?)

2:04 PM must be the actual kickoff time. Kickoff for our Homecoming game was 3:05 PM.

The game at Missouri State is being televised by Springfield, MO television station KOZL (OZarks Local), channel 27.1

MSU has an interesting "tailgating" area called Bearfest Village where no tailgates are allowed. It is located at one end of the stadium. People can reserve space there and bring tents, tables, and whatever makes them happy. You pull your vehicle up, unload your stuff, find your spot and setup. Securing a good spot there probably means you can watch the game from your tailgate spot. Probably a very strong temptation to never enter the stadium and find a seat. Does not seem to do much for their homefield advantage IMO. There are other lots around where they do traditional vehicle tailgating.

Necks by 10.

http://missouristatebears.com/sports/20 ... llage.aspx

Living in the Kansas City area, I get some coverage on Missouri State football. They appear to be slowly headed on a more successful path. However, Western will prevail:

Western Illinois 37
Missouri State 24

Bob

I don't think I'll post a prediction this week - my last two have seemed to hang a curse on us , so I'll refrain.

Would like to know team status, though - everyone healthy and ready to rock?

Everyone is healthy and ready to go...just normal bumps and bruises going into game 6 and that's expected.

Possibly the best defensive team WIU will play against all year. Very good linebacking group and secondary. This will need to be WIU's best offensive performance they play. No turnovers, good running game, and smart pass plays. Defense will need to pressure the QB but not over commit. I see this being another close game since the last meeting was a joke up here in Macomb.

Glad to see MSU turning things around. Hate to see any team struggle for years as it's tough for the players, the university and the fans. That being said, I hope we kick the crap out of them.

Not worried about the offense as they'll produce. Yeah, some things they can do better, but believe we're good there. The defense has an opportunity to do well this week and needs to step up for 4 quarters. They've done some good things, but want to see some great things. Starts with pressure and we must have plenty of that this week and the weeks to follow. We know pressure leads to sacks, 3rd and longs (I have to throw in we need to shut these down), and INT's.

My biggest concern is special teams. Been pretty good this year, but last week was poor and almost cost us the game. It reminded me of the last few years when we lost games because of the poor special teams. Guess it bodes well that we still got the W and was only one week.

Championship teams are solid in all 3 phases. Solid in all three phases and we leave with 2+ score victory.

31 - 13

sealhall74 wrote:MSU has an interesting "tailgating" area called Bearfest Village where no tailgates are allowed. It is located at one end of the stadium. People can reserve space there and bring tents, tables, and whatever makes them happy. You pull your vehicle up, unload your stuff, find your spot and setup. Securing a good spot there probably means you can watch the game from your tailgate spot. Probably a very strong temptation to never enter the stadium and find a seat. Does not seem to do much for their homefield advantage IMO. There are other lots around where they do traditional vehicle tailgating.

Necks by 10.

http://missouristatebears.com/sports/20 ... llage.aspx

Per MSU website:

CAN I TAILGATE DURING THE GAME?
No. BearFest Village will close at KICK OFF
of each game. All alcohol consumption must
end at that time.