Leatherneck Nation

WIU vs North Dakota State (10/22/2016)
VS

Date/Time: Saturday, October 22 at 6 PM
Location: WIU’s own Hanson Field
Weather Forecast (as of 10/19): High of 69 and clear, 63 at kickoff w/ low humidity, 0% chance of rain, and under 10 MPH winds...looks like a beautiful night for October football.
TV: Like all MVFC matchups this season, available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Links:

• Stat Tracking for the game: http://www.sidearmstats.com/wiu/football/
• NDSU’s Message Board (remember, don’t be a troll): http://www.bisonville.com/forum/forumdi ... 9-Football
• NDSU’s Football Website: http://www.gobison.com/index.aspx?path=football
• NDSU’s Athletics Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NDBison
• NDSU’s Athletics Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDSUathletics

NDSU’s Record
The Bison are currently 5-1 overall, 2-1 in the MVFC.
They have wins over:

• Charleston Southern
• Eastern Washington
• Iowa (then #13th FBS ranked)
• Illinois State
• Missouri State

Lost against:

• South Dakota State

The History
Not a very long history as compared with some of the other teams in the conference, we’ve only played NDSU 7 times starting back in ‘07. Due to MVFC scheduling, we didn’t play NDSU in 2012 or 2013. They currently have a 2-5 record against us, with wins over the Bison in 2008 and 2010. The last time NDSU played at Hanson Field was in 2014, when we had the lead up until the 4th quarter, when they came back with two TDs to win by 7 points late in the game.

Team Stat Analysis
To start off with, here’s the full stat comparison between the two teams.

Looking at our offense vs their defense, we put up an average of 436.8 yards per game, 21st in the FCS and they hold teams to 348.2 yards per game (31st in the FCS). On the ground, I’d say they have us beat, with the 10th best rushing defense vs our 45th best rushing offense...however...in the air, we have the 24th best passing offense going against their 90th ranked passing defense. If you look at their previous games, in their one loss (SDSU) and one of their close OT wins (EWU), they gave up 450 and 303 passing yards respectively, while putting up 257 and 143 in those same games.

Flipping around to the other side of the ball, our defense is giving up 452.3 yards per game (104th in the FCS) while their offense puts up 417.7 yards per game (32nd). How we got to 5-1 with the 104th ranked defense in the FCS, I don’t really know...combination of luck and the ability of our offense to keep up with just about any other offense, I suppose….but still, it doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I’ll take it at this point in the season. Specifically, their rushing offense is the 16th best in the FCS and our rushing defense is 53rd. In the air, they have the 86th passing offense, but we have one of the worst passing defenses, giving up 301.5 yards per game...117th in the FCS.

A couple of interesting stats to look at:
Western is currently 5th in the FCS in 4th down conversion defense...we can’t stop them on 1st, 2nd or 3rd, but get them to 4th and short and trying to push it across the line for a short gain, and we’re good at stopping that. NDSU on the other hand is 6th in 4th down conversion.
Also, we’re both in the FCS top 10 for time of possession, so something has to give there, we can’t both be above 30 minutes in a 60-minute game.

Key Opposition Players

QB Easton Stick - Stick passes for an average of 188.8 yards per game and has 9 passing TDs, but he’s also a running threat, rushing for just under 40 yards per game and 3 TDs.

RB King Frazier - Frazier puts in 77.3 rushing yards per game and has 5 rushing TDs. He’s currently averaging 5.2 yards per carry
RB Lance Dunn - Dunn is at 56.7 yards per game and has 2 TDs. He has the same yards per carry average as Frazier with 5.2

WRs Darrius Shepherd and RJ Urzendowski - both are averaging 50-54 yards per game. Shepherd has 3 receiving TDs and Urzendowski has 2.

SS Robbie Grimsley - 47 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble
LB MJ Stumpf - 37 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception
LB Pierre Gee-Tucker - 32 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

The Game

Despite all the “hype” about the Bison (and I know I’m sometimes guilty of it too), they’re not unbeatable...as evidenced by last week’s result against South Dakota State. Outside of 2013, they’ve lost a game every season that they’ve won the championship. They’re good, but they’re still 11 well-coached and talented college kids lining up on each side of the ball like we are. I think that there’s a few things that work to our advantage in this game:

• Teams that do well against NDSU this year are teams that have a strong passing offense (Eastern Washington, South Dakota State). I’ll admit that our QB/receivers combination isn’t quite as good as SDSU’s, but if we play to the best of our ability for all four quarters, we’re probably a close second as far as offenses in the conference. We have a variety of weapons in the passing game that can make it difficult for a defense to defend everyone. If McGuire gets a little better about not overthrowing his receivers on longer routes, he could have a really good game.
• Despite the fact that our two wins over them came up in Fargo, NDSU has been known to not do so well in Macomb. Their last visit (2014), it was a significantly worse Leatherneck team that took a lead into the 4th quarter against a slightly better Bison team (led by Carson Wentz) before giving up two TDs to lose by 7.
• Their offensive strength is the running game, which we are much better at defending. They often rely on short passes and runs to slowly but reliably pick up first downs, but we have a fairly solid D-line and excellent LBs, so they may not have as easy of a time doing that against us.
• NDSU was only able to put up 17 points on a SDSU defense that isn’t great, so they have struggled at putting a lot of points on the board at times (not that they haven’t at all, but in 4 out of their 6 games, they didn’t reach 30 points, whereas in 4 out of our 6 games, we surpassed 30.
• I’m sure the coaching staff and team leaders have been watching a TON of footage from NDSU’s games against EWU and SDSU to really figure out what works well against them. SDSU provided a gameplan of how a team can beat the Bison and I think if anyone else in the conference is able to execute that gameplan, it’s likely Western.
• It’s somewhat unlikely, but we might catch them looking past us to their game at UNI the following weekend. UNI isn’t as good as they’ve been the last few years, but there’s still big “name recognition” there. While not on the level of SDSU or UND, UNI has started to become something of a rivalry between the two teams.
• Last year, we suffered a severe beatdown at the Fargodome...think our guys want a bit of revenge for that?...I think that would be a yes.

And of course, there are a few things going against us:

• They’re NDSU...they know how to win. In the 5 years that they’ve won championships, they’ve lost one game each season (except 2013)...but only one. So they are good about not letting one loss get them down or into a slump.
• They fight to the end of every play, every quarter, every game, whereas we seem to let up in the second half somewhat. We’ll need to keep our foot on the gas, keep fighting and not let up until the game is over if we want to win this one.
• They’re probably pretty angry about losing a big rivalry game at home and might be looking to take out some aggression on Western.

So, how do I think we’ll do? Really hard to say...will McGuire throw another pick-6 or two? If he limits the turnovers...something we were very good at doing in the first three games...then we’ve got a good shot at knocking off NDSU. Luck seemed to be against us in the games with SDSU and ISUb (although thankfully we won that one)...passes that on any other day would have been dropped somehow found their way into a receiver’s hands, for example. Against Missouri State, it seems the luck has started to turn back our direction a bit. Will it hold up against the Bison?...I don’t know, but we’ll need it to do so if we want to win.

As much as I’d love to pick Western to win (my heart says Leathernecks )...I know that NDSU has the advantage at this point (my head says Bison ). Probably something in the range of a 28-21 NDSU win is what I think we’re likely to see...but of course, those of you who know me know that I bleed purple and gold (maybe I need to get that checked by a Dr.) and I would absolutely love to be proven wrong on this. I’ll take a Leatherneck win over a tough opponent over a correct pick any day.

IF, (and that's a big IF) we can put together 4 good quarters of football, I think we can squeak out a win. If we play like we have the last few games, we won't. You can't let NDSU come roaring back (if you can get them down score-wise to begin with) and expect to win. The last two games, we got very lucky, IMO.

We need to eliminate penalties and turnovers. Seems like we're getting worse at both lately.

These are not the Bison of the past. They have lost something at the line of scrimmage on offense. Their time of possession is down from last year and so is their scoring. They just don't seem to put together those long ground-pounding drives like they did in the past which ultimately wear down an opponent, especially come 4th quarter. Still a very formidable foe to deal with. Running against them will be very difficult. Hopefully we have a few fresh looks on offense (motions, counters, etc) to keep them off-balance on defense. McGuire needs to match Stick on the ground and get at least 40-50 yards to keep them honest. They are vulnerable to the pass. Just need to spread the ball around to everyone including TEs and RBs coming out of backfield. Dont get too greedy with the long passes. Try to eat up the clock on drives as we have done pretty well on that in past few games.

As for defense, Stick could tear us a new one if we give him all day to look around. Need to put some pressure on him but also keep him in the pocket. I would rather see hurries than forcing him out of the pocket where his legs can kill you. We had a good game plan defensively two years ago. If that one is still in the file cabinet, it might be worth a look.

This could be a signature win for the Leathernecks. IMO, if we want a first round bye in playoffs and a subsequent home game, we must win this game. It could also be a signature loss for the Bison as it would pretty much guarantee them playing at least one road game in the playoffs.

Looks like they're down their top kicker returner and 3rd running back Anderson. Not too much of hit on that and still have Morlock who can carry the rock if they need to go that deep. They're potentially down their starting corner Jaylaan Wimbush who is going through concussion protocol, but should know more in the next day or 2.

Noticed Conrady wasn't on our depth chart and assume it's because of the leg injury last week. If we have any updates that would be cool and hope its just short term. Like his size blocking in the run game and see him as a pass catching threat in the next few years.

Diggs was back and started last week at safety, but wasn't on the depth chart this week, so didn't know if there was any issue there.

The line will be challenged this week, but if they hold up and Sean is on, we have a chance. They've allowed 6 receivers (1 actually Goedert) to go over 100 year in a total of 4 games. Mix in the run, work the ball down field, and need to hit on 1 or 2 of these deep balls when Lance is behind the single man downfield.

Going with my heart here: WIU 24 - NDSU 17

I remember seeing Diggs limping off the field in the background of one of the TV shots, and there was another defensive player that appeared to be hurt as well (can't remember now who it was).

An update on how the team is faring health-wise would be nice, as I am not close to anyone on the "inside".

Unfortunatly both Conrady and Diggs are out indefinitely. It's that time of year and we are fortunate to be this healthy this stage in the season...

As they say..."Next Man Up"!!

rocki wrote:I remember seeing Diggs limping off the field in the background of one of the TV shots, and there was another defensive player that appeared to be hurt as well (can't remember now who it was).

An update on how the team is faring health-wise would be nice, as I am not close to anyone on the "inside".

Now that you say it, I remember it as well. Don't recall seeing him after that.

Leatherneck57 wrote:Unfortunatly both Conrady and Diggs are out indefinitely. It's that time of year and we are fortunate to be this healthy this stage in the season...

As they say..."Next Man Up"!!

You're right - we have been fortunate this season. Sorry to hear those guys are out - I'm sure it's disappointing to them as well.

Have we figured out why we haven't been able to put 4 good quarters together? I'd love it if this game was the one they decided to do it.

Big opportunity on Saturday. FYI, we could not get a room at either the Holiday Inn or Hampton for Saturday. It's Dad's weekend and I also think there is a football reunion if I am not mistaken. Not too fond of the other places to stay so will drive to Galesburg after ball game is over.

I would say I have always been calmer about games like this then when playing a team who's stats and rankings say should be a definite victory. I think thats why I was uncomfortable during the InSt and MOst. games. You get leads in both, then you make mistakes and have to recover just in time for the win instead of winning going away. I know that a win is a win is a win and in the MVFC each win is huge. But it just is a bit un-nerving at times. Once again I liken it to the pounding Lieutenant Dan gets when tied to Forest Gump's shrimp boat during the hurricane. So it should be a crisp fall night at Hanson Field and I think the Leathernecks will be in the thick of the fight from beginning to end! jc

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NFS71, I highly recommend Iron Spike Brewing Co. in the Historic downtown area of Galesburg, you will not be disappointed!