WIU vs Missouri State (10/14/2017)
Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:12 pm
VS 
Game Time: 3:00PM Central, 10/14/2017
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather:
TV: ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Radio: Announcers (Scott Kornberg, Dr. Tom Cody) - Beardstown - WRMS (94.3 FM); Macomb - WJEQ (102.7 FM); Galesburg - WAIK (1590 AM); Quincy - WPWQ (106.7 FM); Clinton, Iowa - (KCLN 1390 AM)
Internet: wrmsfm.com or Tune-In Radio App (Google store and iTunes)
Live Stats: http://www.sidearmstats.com/wiu/football/
Game Notes: Western Illinois | Missouri State
A bit about Missouri State
The Bears are 1-4 this season and 0-2 in the MVFC. They started off the season with a loss at FBS Mizzou, then got shut out at North Dakota. They then picked up their first win, a 28-21 home victory over Murray State. They then lost 34-9 at home to Illinois State, and 38-11 at North Dakota State. Last weekend, MSU had their bye week.
They are averaging 18.2 ppg and 321.6 ypg (59% of that was passing) and are giving up 39.8 ppg and 502.4 ypg (60% passing). Their defense is currently 120th in the FCS (out of 123) in yards allowed and their offense isn't much better (84th in the FCS). They do have a couple of areas where they are pretty decent, however, currently leading the MVFC for fewest penalties (and penalty yards)...so the Bears won't beat themselves. They also have a good kick return game, due to the first guy listed below.
Full MSU stats for 2017
MSU Players to Watch:
- SR WR/KS Deion Holliman - plays a little at WR, but primarily is their kick/punt return specialist. 6th in the FCS (1st in MVFC) in combined kick returns. Averages 23.9 yards per kickoff return, 10.8 per punt return. Has twice been recognized this season as MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week and as of their game against NDSU, holds the MVFC record for career kickoff return yards.
- SR WR Malik Earl - leads the team with 72.2 recieving ypg and has 2 TD. Had 163 receiving yards and a TD against FBS Missouri.
- SR RB Calan Crowder - leads the team with 64.6 rushing ypg and has 3 TD. Had 124 rushing yards and 2 TDs against FBS Missouri, and also went over 100 yards and had 1 TD against Murray State.
- JR S Jared Beshure - Has 3 INTs in 5 games and a season-high of 8 tackles against Illinois State.
- SO LB McNeese Egbim - Leads the team with 29 total tackles, 2.5 for loss, 1 QB hurry, and a fumble recovery this season.
Western has played Missouri State 34 times. Western holds the series lead, 17-16-1. Last year's meeting was a 38-35 exciting win in Springfield, MO on 10/15/16 where Western came back with a TD in the final 45 seconds to earn the win.
Predictions
Massey - 45-17, WIU Victory
Compughterratings.com - 51-11, WIU win
Sagarin (calculation, doesn't round) - 55.31 to 10.31, WIU win
So, needless to say, we're favored.
Rankings
Sagarin (out of all 254 DI teams) - WIU 84, MSU 199
STATS Top 25 - WIU 14, MSU Not Ranked
Massey Composite - WIU 4, MSU 77
AGS Poll - WIU 10, MSU Not Ranked
My Take
Last week, an exciting, emotional, come-from-behind win at the UNI-Dome. This week, back home against a team that is "supposed" to be nowhere near as good as UNI. I feel like this is one of those games you really have to watch out for and not have a big emotional "letdown". MSU has a good kick returner and a decent WR...a couple of big/lucky plays going their way and they could hang with us for a good part of the game. The longer they stay close, the more likely they could pull off the upset. I know we're generally a second-half team, but we'll want to come out strong, put up a decent lead in the first half and not let them back in the second half like we did last year.
Transitivity/Common Opponents
Obviously doesn't have any actual bearing on how the teams will play, but it's interesting to look at sometimes.
WIU beat Northern Arizona by 18. Northern Arizona beat Illinois State by 21. Illinois State beat Missouri State by 25.
Prediction:
I'm still not quite sold on our running game. We've obviously had some good performances at times, but the last two games against MVFC teams, we've had a total of 167 rushing yards and 2 TDs (that's fewer than we had in any of our first three games individually). That being said, our passing/receiving game has really stepped up, with huge performances by Acklin and McGuire, and MSU's defense has REALLY struggled this year so far. I'm hoping that a decent lead at halftime, and our usual pointsplosion in the 3rd quarter gives us enough of a lead to get some of our second-string guys in for experience.
My prediction: WIU 45, MSU 14
One caveat...if the weather forecast holds and we have a rainy game, I think the passing game on both sides will take a hit and it'll be a lower-scoring affair...more like 32-10 Leathernecks.