If we win out and with both games solidly, then all we need is some of those schools going 1-1.
Let's look at the AGS Top 25 from last weekend, how they did, and where they ended up in this week's poll:
Here's the weekly "How They Fared" from the AGS Top 25:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
And this is this week's AGS Poll:
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr ... ost2562034
Teams that lost and where they went...
#2 NDSU lost at #9 SDSU by 12 and dropped to #4 (2 spots)
#5 South Dakota lost at #24 Northern Iowa by 5 and dropped to #10 (5 spots)
#10 Northern Arizona lost at #31 Montana by 2 and dropped to #16 (6 spots)
#13 Illinois State lost vs #16 WIU by 17 and dropped to #21 (8 spots)
#15 Eastern Washington lost to #17 Weber State by 8 and dropped to #23 (6 spots)
#23 Villanova lost to #20 Richmond by 22 and dropped to #33 in the "Others Receiving Votes" section (11 spots)
So, you're looking at an average of around 5-6 spots dropped for 1 loss. If you win, you generally don't move up much unless you beat a higher ranked team, which there aren't many games like that on the #6-#12 team's schedules...USD has 2, Elon has 1.
All of this is assuming we win out (if we don't, or if they're close games, this is all pretty much moot anyway)...
#12 Weber State probably won't lose
#11 Stony Brook could drop one to Maine
#10 South Dakota with a banged-up Chris Streveler could easily drop both of their games...higher ranked teams, but if they lose both, they'll drop below us for sure...maybe even if they only win 1 depending on other stuff.
#9 Southern Utah could lose either of their games (both have winning records)
#8 Wofford will, barring craziness...go 1-1, but the loss will be to an SEC team, so they might drop a little. How far depends on how competitive they are in the game.
#7 Elon will likely go 1-1, but could bo 0-2 if they hit a rough patch
#6 Sam Houston State likely won't lose either game
So, we've got #7 losing 1-2 games, #8 losing a game vs an SEC team, #9 losing...maybe 1, #10 losing potentially two games, and #11 possibly dropping 1. That's five teams that I could see dropping behind us depending on the outcomes and point spreads. If that happens, we could snag the #8 spot. We need to play well and we need a bit of luck, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, I think.