Fall 2021 - Week 2 - at Montana

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ST_Lawson
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Date/Time: Saturday, September 11 at 7 PM (Central time)
Location: Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 9/9) - 70° and clear, rain in the morning, but 1% chance of rain at kickoff, ~5 mph wind

WIU Radio: Mixlr
UM Radio: GoGriz.com
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=353073

Game Notes: Western Illinois, Montana

One game under our belts...a fairly strong performance against a good Ball State team. Sampson's 367 passing yards puts him currently at #7 in the FCS in that stat, and Dennis Houston's 237 receiving yards rocketed him to the top of the FCS. The rushing part of our offense didn't do very well compared to the rest of the FCS, but considering what they were up against and the fact that it hasn't been a strong point for us over the last year or two, it wasn't a bad performance.

On the defensive side of the ball, Michael Lawson's 2 forced fumbles ties him with 3 other players for #1 in the FCS and his 9 solo tackles puts him at #5 on that list. Overall, we held a team that last year averaged 34.25 ppg (against entirely FBS teams...all were against the MAC except their bowl game against San Jose State) to 31 points. We also won the time of possession, something we struggled with in the past. Something else I noticed was that we were better at stopping Ball State on 3rd downs than we were overall last year. Comparing this defense to the one from the spring, our 3rd down conversion % allowed went from .452 to .333 and our 1st downs allowed went from an average of 22.5 down to 18 this game. Obviously it's early, so stats from one game don't paint a full picture of how this team will do over the course of the season, but in general, things look a little better than they have recently.

You can view WIU's full stat ranking here.

While we performed fairly strongly against a good G5 team, Montana pulled one of the greatest upsets in their school's history last weekend, taking down the 20th ranked Washington Huskies of the Pac 12 in a defensive battle, 13-7. Obviously with a total of 13 points, there's not going to be a ton to talk about on the offensive side of the ball. QB Cam Humphrey threw for 105 yards on 12 completions (23 attempts), with no TDs, but also no INTs. He also ran for 14 yards and 1 TD. On the ground, RB Xavier Harris led the team with 70 yards. The Grizzlies were also able to hold on to the ball the entire game with no offensive turnovers.

The Montana defense allowed only 65 yards and 1 TD on the ground, although they did give up 226 yards through the air. In the process though, they had 3 interceptions (1 for LB Marcus Welnel, 2 for S Gavin Robertson) and 3 sacks for 25 yards of loss. Welnel led the team in tackles with 12 total (6 solo) and was awarded the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Week award. They allowed only 4 of 14 3rd down attempts, and 1 of 3 4th down attempts. The punting game is also solid, with P Brian Buschini kicking 7 punts with an average of 47 yards per punt and 3 of them inside the 20. Buschini also received the Big Sky's Special Teams Co-Player of the Week award.

Montana has moved up the rankings with the win, sitting at #4 in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25. Here is their current full stat ranking sheet.

This game will be Montana's home opener and a "Maroon Out" night game. Washington-Grizzly Stadium is a notoriously tough place to play, with upwards of 25,000 fans expected (nearly double what was at Ball State) who will be excited and loud. If we're being honest, I think this game and the one against SDSU are probably the two toughest games on our schedule this year (yes, tougher than our FBS game). If there's one thing going for us in this, it's that Montana's defensive weak spot is against the pass, which is obviously our strength. I don't know that it'll be enough to get us a win, but maybe we'll get lucky and they'll have a "letdown" after winning such a huge game.

Current Predictions
Massey Ratings gives us about a 28% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 28-20 for the Grizzlies.
Sagarin Rankings lists us at #168 out of all DI teams, with Montana at #98 (https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/col ... ings-2021/) and they're giving us about a 11% chance of victory.
 
 
 
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
letsgonecks
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Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:19 am

Find a way to limit the run and we can win this game. No seriously, someone please find a way to limit the run.

This will be a very tough task on the road, but think our offense will be up for it. Will have to play a clean game and hope the defense can limit the run and gives us a turnover or 2.

Have a feeling we'll feel a bit more confident by kickoff. Expect Ball State to look solid against Penn State Saturday afternoon. Washington doesn't play Michigan until 5, but have a feeling that won't go so well for them. Not taking anything away from Montana's awesome win and their teams ability as their ranking is very much legit, but just MY assessment of our previous opponents.

Again, we'll have to play near perfect ball to win this one, but taking WIU 24 Montana 17.
rocki
Posts: 1510
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

Don't have any real insights, but we definitely need to work on a running game. I didn't see the Montana/Washington game, so I have no idea what their play is like. Sampson looked good last week, let's hope it wasn't a fluke. It did seem that the Oline had vastly improved over the spring season, though. OOC games are generally early enough that we're still working out the kinks, so let's get to it!
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ST_Lawson
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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
rocki
Posts: 1510
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

GAME DAY!!!!!! Everybody healthy and ready to go?
rocki
Posts: 1510
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

Falling on top of a quarterback who tripped over his own feet is hardly a sack. :roll:
 
WIU2DC
Posts: 695
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:31 pm

Damn! That was a HIT! If we are gonna lose, HIT THEM! Also, in a quarter and half Montana wins the MAC This year. Even if we pull this off, Montana is a great team.


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WIU2DC
Posts: 695
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:31 pm

That was a terrible call


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WIU2DC
Posts: 695
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:31 pm

Hell yeah!! It should be 14-14 right now.


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rocki
Posts: 1510
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

Can I just say I'm still questioning Sampson? He hasn't been able to keep his feet under him this week. I still want to see Ogala - I thought he was supposed to be THE dude when they brought him in.
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