Leatherneck Nation

VS

Date/Time: Saturday, October 2 at 3 PM
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 9/28): 75 degrees and 36% chance of light rain (good chance of rain throughout most of the later afternoon, just fyi), ~8mph wind, bring those purple ponchos

WIU Radio: Mixlr, Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
SIU Radio: Saluki Radio Network
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: https://goleathernecks.com/sidearmstats ... ll/summary
Game Notes: Western Illinois, Southern Illinois

Now that's what I'm talkin' about...how about that come from behind win. We're now 1-3 on the season after winning our first conference matchup at Youngstown State. Now, we get to host the Salukis back home...for HOMECOMING!

Southern Illinois is 3-1 this season, kicking things off with a 47-21 win over non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State, then coming close to knocking off K-State of the Big 12, by a score of 31-23. They followed that up with a 55-3 crushing of Dayton (Pioneer League) before heading into MVFC play last weekend and hosting Illinois State. While not quite as impressive as our comeback, SIU fought back from a 17-0 defect early in the 3rd quarter with 2 TDs in the 3rd and 3 TDs in the 4th to win 35-17.

I forgot to mention it in the previous games, but our history in the series with SIU sees the Leathernecks with a 37-24-4 series lead which began back in 1933. For a while it was very "streaky" when we won 18-straight against them from 1984 to 2001, but then lost the next 9 straight from 2002-2010. Since then it's been more back and forth, with us winning in 2011, 2015, 2017, and 2018, and SIU winning 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2019. We did not play SIU last season, but before that we had played them every year back to 1982.

The Salukis have a very strong team this year, with a varied offense that utilizes multiple attacks and is sitting at 11th best in the FCS in total yardage and 14th in scoring. Through the air, they're averaging 278.8 ypg (21st in the FCS) with 10 TDs and on the ground, 185.8 ypg (27th) with 10 rushing TDs. QB Nic Baker has a QB rating of 169.47 on the season, with 1,113 total yards (278.25 per game), 9 TDs and 4 INTs. He's not much of a running threat for a QB (averages -1.75 ypg) but he doesn't need to be with 3 different players averaging 50 or more yards per game (in 2+ games). Sophomore RB Javon Williams Jr. is at 55.25 ypg with 6 TDs, Sophomore RB Justin Strong has 54 ypg and 2 TD, and Senior RB Donnavan Spencer is sitting at 64 ypg with 1 TD. On the receiving end of things, Junior WR Avante Cox is averaging 87.25 ypg with 2 TDs, and a familiar name to many of us, Senior WR Landon Lenoir (brother of former Leatherneck WR Lance Lenior) is at 81.5 ypg with 3 TDs. Another player worth noting is Freshman WR Izaiah Hartrup, who has 48.5 ypg with 1 TD, but had a 70-yard kickoff return and 82 receiving yards against Illinois State last weekend, earning him the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week

SIU is no less impressive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 18th in the FCS in total defense and 20th in scoring defense. They allow a league-low of 144.8 ypg (10th in the FCS) through the air and 145 ypg (50th) on the ground. They are #2 in the FCS in fumbles recovered with 6 so far this season, leading to an overall 18th spot in turnovers gained with 8. Senior LB Bryce Notree leads the team with 26 tackles this season (14 solo), 3 QB hurries, 2 tackles for loss (.5 sack), with Senior Safety Qua Brown leading the team in solo tackles with 22 including 1 for loss. Senior DT Kevin Glajchen and Freshman DE Richie Hagarty both have 3 sacks this season, with Glajchen also picking up a forced fumble.

You can check out SIU's full statistic ranking summary here.

For comparison, here's our statistic ranking summary.

So, how's this game going to go? Well, obviously we have a solid passing game, although that's a strength of the SIU defense. They also have an offense that can pretty closely keep pace with us. Their biggest weakness is against the run game, but unless we are able to get our running game to step up a bit more, we might still struggle to move the ball. I'd hate to be wrong, but I think SIU is just a bit too good of a team for us to pull off the upset. SIU is ranked #7 in the STATS FCS Top 25 poll and #6 in the AnyGivenSaturday.com Poll. Massey Ratings gives SIU a 72% chance to win the game with a predicted score of 37-27. Sagarin ratings has us as the #172 DI team, while SIU is right at #100. He has SIU with an 82% of victory. My prediction is something closer to a 38-36 SIU victory...I hope I'm wrong on that though.
 
 
 

Need to find a way to get pressure on the QB, which we are not good at.  Through 4 games and 130 pass attempts against, we only have 7 QB Hurries and 1 sack.  They've given up 8 sacks and 7 QBH on 125 drop backs.  5 of those 8 sacks were against previously top 25 K-State, so only 3 allowed against fellow FCS opponents. 

For comparison, they've faced only 98 pass attempts, but have 13 sacks and 14 QBH's.  We've had 170 attempts and been hurried 14 times and sacked 11 times. 

Another stat not boding well for us is our 31.48% conversion rate on 3rd down and the fact they only allow 27.27%.  We're actually up from 24% last year, so at least we have that going.

Every week is a new week and these stats don't matter, if we execute well, but pressure from us and the ability to convert on 3rd will decide this game.

Hope Coach Clark and the boys on D are prepared out the gate.  I'm extra optimistic for homecoming, but will take a near perfect game or huge turd of a game from SIU to get the W.

Some sacks, some turnovers and consistency for 4 quarters: WIU 35 - SIU 24 
 

Who's running the Stompin Ground Runaround?  My goal is to run one 5k per month.  I guess this will be the October race for me and the wife.  Is the Rec Center open to alums on that day so we might be able to shower and soak in the hot tub?  I see on the web site the hot tub is a no cause of Covid.  Darn virus.  Just amp up the chlorine a bit for the weekend and go with it.  

My Aritificially Intelligent Neural Network Generated prediction coming tomorrow I hope.
 
 

Mr. Lawson, now that is an impressive Pregame. Perhaps you should make it your full time job?

Western_101 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:59 pm Mr. Lawson, now that is an impressive Pregame. Perhaps you should make it your full time job?
 

Man, if I could get paid to just write about football, I'd be all right with that. It's pretty hard to make a living writing sports articles online though, so fortunately (for my bank account), I'm also an adequate web developer.

By the way, for anyone coming to Homecoming this weekend, the alumni band will be returning this season. Due to COVID restrictions, we can't join the band on the field during halftime, but you all can look for us playing with the band at the Alumni House during the parade, in the stands during the game, and for the last little bit of halftime, from a slightly different position than we usually occupy. I honestly wasn't expecting too many band alumni to show up this year, but it looks like it'll be a pretty large crew.

I watched most of SIU's game last Saturday and was not impressed.  If we can get our D figured out from the start, or at least make adjustments before halftime, I think we have a great chance for a HC win.  We seem to be at the point where we can count on 30+ from our Offense.  The boys should be on a high after last week's win, and they also still remember all of Nick Hill's comments after we had to opt out of our remaining games in the Spring.  They should be fired up and confident for this one!  

If the D plays a good game...  WIU 34  SIU  24    If the D plays 1 half...  SIU 41  WIU  38  

GV wrote:Thu Jan 01, 1970 3:23 am I watched most of SIU's game last Saturday and was not impressed.  If we can get our D figured out from the start, or at least make adjustments before halftime, I think we have a great chance for a HC win.  We seem to be at the point where we can count on 30+ from our Offense.  The boys should be on a high after last week's win, and they also still remember all of Nick Hill's comments after we had to opt out of our remaining games in the Spring.  They should be fired up and confident for this one!  

If the D plays a good game...  WIU 34  SIU  24    If the D plays 1 half...  SIU 41  WIU  38  

 

I watched the first half as well and wasn't too impressed with either team.  Thought maybe both teams were playing decent defense and affecting the offensive output.  Didn't see the big second half from SIU, but yeah, just watching the first half gave me confidence. 

There's a chance here, but the guys have to be firing out the gate on both sides.  SIU is a very good team and deserves a top 10 ranking, but wouldn't put them in the same class as Montana or SDSU/NDSU.  They might come out hot and smash the shit out of us, but there's a chance.  Have trouble seeing a chance against SDSU, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

sealhall74 wrote:Who's running the Stompin Ground Runaround?  My goal is to run one 5k per month.  I guess this will be the October race for me and the wife.  Is the Rec Center open to alums on that day so we might be able to shower and soak in the hot tub?  I see on the web site the hot tub is a no cause of Covid.  Darn virus.  Just amp up the chlorine a bit for the weekend and go with it.  

My Aritificially Intelligent Neural Network Generated prediction coming tomorrow I hope.
 
 

For once, I’m actually not running the 5k for homecoming. There’s just too much going on for me right now for me to worry about getting ready for that too.

I am doing the Fallen Soldiers 5k on October 30 though. If you sign up, you can get a complimentary ticket to that afternoon’s game against Illinois State (it’s probably our best chance at seeing a home win this season since we play IN State away).


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I think this game will tell us a lot about our team. We could be a .500 team, if we could have pulled out the EWU game.

We are in a really good position: first conference win, first road win since '18, and play a Homecoming game against an in-state, top-10 team. If that doesn't get you fired up, check your pulse!

SIU is a very good team, but I think we can pull the upset! We should be fired up, and if we can tighten-up the defense, we can win this game. We know we can score, but defense is the key to this game.

I will say: WIU 31
                 SIU  28
Another winning field goal by Laramie.

If we will, I will strongly consider a trip to Terre Haute.