VS 
Date/Time: Saturday, October 16 at 12 PM (Central)
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 10/14): 55 degrees and clear, 0% chance of precipitation, 15 mph wind
WIU Radio: Mixlr | Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
SDSU Radio: Jackrabbits All Access (free audio) | Jackrabbit Sports Network
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: from WIU
Game Notes: Western Illinois | South Dakota State
1-5...not where we wanted to be at this point in the season with 4 of our remaining 5 games being against teams ranked in the STATS FCS Top 25 poll. I guess that's just life in "The Valley".
South Dakota State has been quite impressive most of the season, holding a 4-1 overall record and 1-1 in the conference. After finishing last season as the runner-up to the national championship, they started this season by steamrolling FBS Colorado State 42-23, then hosting DII Lindenwood and beating them 52-7. They then played Indiana State (you know...the team we just lost to by 10 points) and destroyed them 44-0, followed up by a non-conference matchup with new DI Dixie State (who is in the process of changing their name to Utah Tech) where they won 55-7. They finally had their first "slip-up" of the season last weekend against SIU, when, tied at 35-all going to OT, they decided to go for 2 points following their OT TD, failed, and lost to the Salukis by 1 point (where have we heard that before?)
Against the Jackrabbits, they have a 11-5 series lead. 4 of those wins occurred prior to 1982 though, so in the recent timeframe (since 2007) we have a 2-10 record against them, with both of our wins being memorable OT victories. In 2007, we won the longest OT game in MVFC/Gateway history with a 29-26 4OT win over SDSU, then in 2015 when we closed out the regular season with a 30-24 2OT win over then #5 ranked SDSU on a snowy field that got us into the playoffs.
Looking at SDSU statistically, their offense ranks 4th in the FCS with just over 500 ypg and 3rd in scoring with an average of 46.8 ppg. Grad Transfer (by way of South Florida→Samford→SDSU) QB Chris Oladokun is 2nd in the FCS in passing efficiency, has an average of 215.8 ypg, 12 TDs and only 2 INTs, plus 1 rushing TD. He spreads things out pretty well, with Sophomore TE Tucker Kraft having the bulk of the receptions (26) averaging 64 ypg with 4 TDs, and Junior WRs the Janke twins (Jadon and Jaxon) getting in on the action as well. Jadon has 62 ypg and 4 TDs, while Jaxon has 51 ypg with 1 TD. On the ground, Senior RB Pierre Strong lives up to his name, sitting at #1 in the FCS in yards per carry (8.64) and yards per game (129.6). He has 648 yards on the season (4th in the FCS) with 7 rushing TDs. He was awarded MVFC Offensive Player of the Week following the game against Indiana State. Junior O-Lineman Garret Greenfield also picked up a MVFC Offensive Lineman of the Week award after their win over Indiana State.
The Jackrabbit defense is fairly solid, holding opposing teams to 336.6 ypg (32nd) and 15.8 ppg (14th). They're 14th in rushing defense (95 ypg) but the one bright spot for us is that they're 80th in passing yards allowed (241.6). Sophomore LB Adam Bock leads the team with 41 tackles (21 solo), 3 for loss, 1 INT and 1 forced fumble. Junior Safety Isaiah Stalbird has 21 tackles (10 solo) and a forced fumble, while Senior LB Logan Backhaus and Juionr CB Dyshawn Gales each have 20 tackles (11 solo) and 1 tackle for loss. Gales also has a forced fumble. Senior DT Caleb Sanders has notched 5.5 tackles for loss with 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble and Senior DE Reece Winkelman has 4.5 for loss (2.5 sacks).
You can check out SDSU's full statistic ranking summary here.
For comparison, here's our statistic ranking summary.
South Dakota State is currently ranked #7 in the STATS FCS Top 25 and #5 in the AGS Poll.
Massey Ratings gives us about a 20% chance to win this game, with a predicted score of 38-24 for SDSU.
Sagarin lists South Dakota State as the #54 DI team (coincidentally, the other SDSU...San Diego State...is only 2 spots behind them at #56). Meanwhile, we're down at #169. Needless to say, we're not predicted to win there either.
What do I think? Well, despite the fact that we both fell to SIU by 1 point in OT at home, I think SDSU's loss actually hurts our chances of winning. A close win by the Jackrabbits would have meant a 5-0 team, still riding high after an exciting home victory, in prime position for a "let down" game where we could sneak up and get them. The close loss has likely shown them that they do still have to actually compete for the full game. They're going to come in with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder and a bit angry and will likely take that out on us. On the other side of things, I think the INSU loss for us has been pretty demoralizing for our team...knowing that we really should have beaten them (and would have if we'd played like we did against YSU or SIU). I don't know of Coach Elliott will be able to "rally the troops" much at this point. Since their defense is a bit soft against the pass, I think we'll do ok at putting up a few points, but with how bad we've been against the run (110th in the FCS out of 123), I thing Strong is poised for a 200+ yard day. This will be like a ground version of the EWU game, but if EWU actually had a halfway decent defense...so, I guess more like the Montana game. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid we're probably looking down the barrel of something resembling a 48-21 win for SDSU. It would likely be higher if Coach Stig was the type of coach who runs up the score, but we probably won't see much of their starters in the second half of the game.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
