Fall 2021 - Week 8 - at North Dakota

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ST_Lawson
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Date/Time: Saturday, October 23 at 2 PM (Central)
Location: Alerus Center, Grand Forks, ND
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 10/20): 45 degrees, partly cloudy, 0% chance of precipitation (game is inside, weather is for anyone traveling to it and maybe doing some tailgating)

WIU Radio: Mixlr | Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
UND Radio: UND Insider (free audio)
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+, Midco Sports Two
Live Stats: from UND
Game Notes: Western Illinois | North Dakota

MVFC Newcomer North Dakota is next up on our "dance card". The Fighting Hawks are 2-4 this season, 0-3 in the conference. They began the season taking down Idaho State (Big Sky) on the road, 35-14, then lost at FBS Utah State, 48-24. They then hosted Drake (Pioneer League) and won 38-0. Heading into MVFC games, they hosted North Dakota State, falling 16-10, then lost at South Dakota, 20-13. Last weekend, they faced off against SIU in Carbondale, and dropped that one 31-28. So, while they are 0-3 in the conference, they've been within 7 points in all of the games.

Against UND, Western is 0-2, with the only meetings being a 28-7 home loss in 1979 and last spring's 38-21 loss. This will be the first time the Leathernecks have played in Grand Forks. There's only one common opponent between the two teams currently, SIU, who we lost to by 1 in OT (in Macomb), and UND lost by 3 (in Carbondale)

Taking a look at the statistics, UND's offense puts up 392.5 ypg (41st in FCS) and 24.7 ppg (65th). They lean a little more towards the passing game, with 244.2 ypg (34th) through the air as opposed to 148.3 ypg on the ground (67th). Sophomore QB Tommy Schuster is throwing for 235.5 ypg with 8 TDs and 4 INTs at a rate of 65.57% for a QB rating of 130.23. Junior RB Luke Skokna has caught the most passes for the Hawks this season (25) generally being used on short pass situations. Grad WR Jake Richter picks up 45.25 ypg, while Sophomore TE Adam Zavalney, Sophmore WR Bo Belquist, and SeniorWR Brock Boltmann each have 3 receiving TDs. On the ground, it's the Otis Weah show, with the Junior RB averaging 76 ypg with 3 TDs. It does sound like they've been somewhat bitten by the injury bug lately though. Weah was out against SIU, one of their top receivers was out the last couple of games, etc. so we'll have to see who they're able to suit up for the game. They have a solid O-Line though, currently tied for the fewest sacks allowed this season in the FCS and 9th in tackles for loss allowed.

On defense, the Hawks allow 349.3 ypg (43rd) and 21.5 ppg (28th), with their strength being against the pass (188.7 ypg allowed, 29th in FCS). Against the run, they allow 160.7 ypg (67th). They are led by Sr. LB Noah Larson who has 45 tackles so far this season (15 solo) including 1.5 for loss and Sr. LB Devon Krzanowski is right behind with 40 tackles (21 solo) including 3 for loss (1 sack). They have 8 different defensive players who have an interception this season. Jr. DL Jaelen Johnson and Grad LB Ty Shannon both have 3.5 tackles for loss (w/ 1 sack each) and Johnson has a forced fumble.

You can check out UND's full statistic ranking summary here.

For comparison, here's our statistic ranking summary.

Massey Ratings gives us about a 25% chance of winning the game, with a predicted score of 31-21.
Sagarin lists UND as the #123 DI team in the country, with us sitting at 166, and about a 20% chance of victory.

I'm afraid at this point I don't have a great deal of confidence that we'll be able to get more than maybe 1 additional win this season (probably Illinois State). Like usual, if we figure out how to play a full game, we have a decent shot...obviously we've been really close to some really good teams at times, but the last two games haven't made me feel great about our chances...losing by 10 to Indiana State and getting steamrolled in the 2nd half against SDSU.
I think we can make it a close game, but if they have most of their starters back from injury that were out the last couple of games, I think we'll have trouble stopping their offense. Probably something like 32-26 for UND in this one.
 
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rocki
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I picked UND to win in the MVFC Pickem - maybe that will take the curse off the 'Necks (I picked the 'Necks against ISUb and look how that turned out) :lol:
 
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ST_Lawson
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rocki wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:30 pm I picked UND to win in the MVFC Pickem - maybe that will take the curse off the 'Necks (I picked the 'Necks against ISUb and look how that turned out) :lol:
 
Thank you for quite literally "taking one for the team".
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sealhall74
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Their Homecoming, they are probably a 1 more loss and done team, game indoors so weather cannot influence outcome (like the wind did last week), this will be a tough row to hoe for sure.  We need some early breaks like turnovers and subsequent scores to put a little extra pressure on them so they tighten up a bit in front of the alums in the audience.  Coach said we need to run the ball better in Monday's show.  UND last in the league in rushing defense.  That is opportunity knocking on the door for sure.  Please Lord, let me see some occasional 2 back sets with a little misdirection thrown in now and then, an RB following the FB into a hole big enough to drive a semi through.  Amen.

Again, I have to go back to the glory days of Joe Gibbs and the Redskins.  What I referred to above is the famous "Counter Trey".  
Riggo Right on 4.  Break!

https://studentofthegame101football.wor ... nter-trey/
 
 
Embrace the pace of the race.
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ST_Lawson
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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
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ST_Lawson
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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
letsgonecks
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Hope the boys can get a win this week.  Possible, but what team shows up and for how many quarters.
WIU2DC
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Let’s go Western!


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sealhall74
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Trickery a week before Halloween.    Thats not fair.
Embrace the pace of the race.
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sealhall74
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Man, if you are going to throw a pass on 3rd down, beyond the sticks please.
Embrace the pace of the race.
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