VS 
Date/Time: Saturday, October 30 at 3 PM (Central)
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 10/29): 57 degrees, mostly cloudy, 0% chance of precipitation, ~9 mph wind
WIU Radio: Mixlr | Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
ISU Radio: WJBC
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: From WIU
Game Notes: Western Illinois | Illinois State
As has happened numerous times in the last 100 years, it's now time for the Redbirds to visit Macomb. This year's ISU team started off the season with a big win over Butler (Pioneer League), 49-7, then a FBS loss at Western Michigan of 28-0. They traveled to Eastern Illinois for their non-conference rivalry matchup there, where they narrowly defeated the Panthers, 31-24. Heading into conference play, the Redbirds lost 35-17 at #7 SIU, 41-20 against #16 Missouri State, 20-0 against #3 NDSU, but then were able to pull out a huge 20-14 road win over then #15 South Dakota.
The series between the Leathernecks and Redbirds is the most played in WIU history and second-most in ISU history (behind only EIU). We have played them 103 times, with WIU holding a 51-49-3 series lead. The series began in 1904, and has been played every year (except 1973) back to 1923. The last three meetings have been won by ISU, including a 37-27 WIU loss last season in Normal.
On offense, ISU is ranked 111th in the FCS, putting up 267.3 ypg and 19.6 ppg (87th). They are 66th on the ground (139 ypg) but 116th through the air (128.3 ypg). Fr. QB Jackson Waring had been playing for much of the season, but in the win over USD, it was Sophomore Bryce Jefferson who was running the offense. Neither QB has been all that impressive, with a total of 5 TDs and 6 INTs between them and the previously mentioned 128 ypg. The top receiving target is Jr. WR Austin Nagel, who has caught 11 passes for 269 yards with an average of 38.4 ypg and 1 TD. On the ground, Fr. RB Cole Mueller leads the team with 82.6 ypg and 3 TDs, but in last weekend's game against USD, he racked up 178 yards and a TD to pick up both the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week and Newcomer of the Week awards. 4 other players have 2 rushing TDs each this season.
The defense has been a bit stronger for ISU this season, holding teams to 350.6 ypg (45th) with 161.4 of that coming on the ground (70th) and 189.1 ypg through the air (30th), so it looks like their pass defense is really their strength. Out of 123 FCS teams, they're 122nd in tackles for loss. Jr. LB Shanon Reid leads the team with 56 total tackles (34 solo) with 1 INT and a forced fumble. Jr. DL Braydon Deming is the best on the team at getting through the opponent's O-line, tallying 4 tackles for loss (1 sack). Sr. DB Jarrell Jackson is one to watch out for when we're trying to pass, as he has 3 INTs returned for a total of 96 yards and 5 pass breakups.
You can check out ISU's full statistic ranking summary here.
For comparison, here's our statistic ranking summary.
Massey Ratings gives us about a 51% chance of winning the game, with a predicted score of 27-26.
Sagarin lists ISU as the #150th DI team in the country, with us sitting at 175, although they also give us about a 51% chance of a win
So, I'd say this game is pretty much a "toss-up". Neither team has done all that well this year overall, but both teams have occasionally shown sparks of competence. On one side, you have ISU coming off a big road win over a ranked team. On the other side, you have us...who are on a 4-game losing streak and haven't really shown much life after halftime of the SDSU game. If Coach Elliott can get our guys excited enough to play like they can, then we should be able to win this one. If, however, they are pretty much "checked out" on the season at this point, then I think we'll keep it close, but won't have that extra "oomph" to get us over the hump. Fingers crossed that I'm right, but I'm going with us having just enough and ISU having a "let-down" after last weekend's win. Leathernecks win 31-30.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
