Fall 2021 - Week 10 - vs South Dakota

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ST_Lawson
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Date/Time: Saturday, November 6 at 12 PM (Central)
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 11/2): 50 degrees, partly cloudy, 0% chance of precipitation, ~11 mph wind

WIU Radio: Mixlr | Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: From WIU
Game Notes: Not yet posted

Hey, how about that...a second win in a season. We haven't seen that since 2018.

Anywho, this Saturday, the South Dakota Coyotes come to town. That's coyotes like kai-oats, not kai-oat-ees. The 'Yotes are currently 5-3 overall with a 3-2 conference record. They started off their season with a near-upset over Kansas, falling 17-14. They then hosted Northern Arizona and won 34-7, and headed out west to Cal Poly, where they won 48-14. In the MVFC, they started with a game at then #18 Missouri State, where they fell 31-23, then hosted Indiana State (winning 38-10) and then #13 North Dakota (winning 20-13). They won their second game against a ranked team when they traveled to #16 Northern Iowa and won 34-21, but then headed back home and inexplicably dropped a game against Illinois State to the tune of 20-14 before their bye week. Following their matchup with us, they finish out the season with two very tough games, hosting current #9 South Dakota State, then ending the season at the Fargodome to take on current #2 North Dakota State.

The series between the two teams started with a H&H series back in '76 and '77, but it wasn't until they joined the MVFC that we started playing them on a regular basis. They started with the conference in 2012 and we played them every year from 2012-2019. WIU has a 6-4 series lead over USD and won the last matchup in 2019, 38-34. The 2017 game (a 38-33 WIU loss at our Homecoming) was a particularly memorable one, with QB Sean McGuire throwing for 441 yards and 4 TDs and WR Jaelon Acklin catching 19 passes (a school and conference record) for 343 yards (also a school and conference record...and 51 yards ahead of the #2 performance in conference history) with 3 TDs.

Now that we're nearing the end of the season, I thought it'd be ok to use MVFC-only stats and rankings now (all rankings are out of 11 teams).
Compared to the other members of our conference, USD has the #5 scoring offense, putting up 28.1 ppg and #7 overall offense with 373.4 ypg. They have the #4 run game (185.9 ypg) but only the #7 passing game (187.5 ypg). QB Carson Camp was out with injury for most of the game against ISU (which I'm sure contributed to the odd loss to the Redbirds), but it sounds like he's likely to be back in this weekend. Camp (who's originally from Normal, IL) played in 4 games in 2020 (that counts as a "redshirt year" under the current rules) then 8 games in the crazy spring season (which doesn't count against eligibility), so while he is technically a redshirt freshman, this will be the 21st game that he's participated in. He's not putting up huge numbers, 165 ypg through the air with 11 TDs and 2 INTs, but he's got a fairly high efficiency rating at 147.8. His top WR is R-Freshman Carter Bell, who's pulled down 29 catches with an average of 13.9 yards per catch and 50.2 ypg with 3 TDs. On the ground, R-Freshman RB Travis Theis leads the team with 80.7 ypg and 7 TDs, while Freshman RB Nate Thomas has picked up 65.8 ypg and 3 TDs (did anyone else notice that all the players I've listed so far are classified as freshmen?)

On the defensive side of the ball, USD is only allowing 16.6 ppg and 297.3 ypg (both #2 in the MVFC). They're #3 against both the run (85.5 ypg) and the pass (200.3 ypg), although they're tied for the fewest interceptions in the conference (with ourselves and YSU). They are also #2 in the conference in sacks, with 25 through 8 games (we have 14). Sr. LB Jack Cochrane leads the team with 70 tackles (39 solo) and has 8 for loss (1 sack), and 2 interceptions. Sr. LB Jacob Matthew and R-Fr. DL Nick Gaes are great at getting through to the QB, putting up 5 sacks each, with So. DL Brendan Webb close behind with 4.

UDS is also solid on special teams, averaging 31.9 yards per kickoff return (#1 in the MVFC), .909 on FGs (also #1), and average 40.9 yards per punt (#3). The 'Yotes also are the least penalized team in the conference, averaging only 36.1 ypg in penalties, while we are the most penalized in the conference, averaging 73.1 ypg.

You can check out USD's full statistic ranking summary from the NCAA here.

For comparison, here's our statistic ranking summary.

Massey Ratings gives us about a 29% chance of winning the game, with a predicted score of 31-24
Sagarin lists USD as the #115th DI team in the country, with us sitting at 168. They give us about a 17% chance of winning.

I think this game doesn't look quite as promising for us as last weekend's. This time we're the ones coming off a "big win", and USD has had a week to rest up and get healthier. Lots of fans of other teams talk about Macomb being an odd place to play (lack of fans, remote location, etc.) but Coach Nielson is obviously familiar with it and I think he'll have his team ready. If UDS has a weak spot, it's that their passing offense doesn't appear to be all that special, although it does seem to be able to get the job done most of the time. As is usual this season, I think the predictions from Massey are probably fairly close for the margin, but I think they underestimate the total points. I hope we can pull off another win, but I'm thinking this game is going to lean more towards a score like our game against ISU, just reversing the results...so 38-31 for South Dakota in this one. Probably with USD up 31-10 at halftime.
 
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rocki
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No arguments with your thinking, but would still like to see the team get a 3rd win - and this looks like the better chance at it.
GV Dad
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Their pass rush scares the hell out of me.  But, I saw more energy on our sideline last week than I have in any game since Ball State.  I really hope SR Day fuels that same energy this week.  I think it's going to be a very close game.  
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ST_Lawson
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rocki wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 1:49 pm No arguments with your thinking, but would still like to see the team get a 3rd win - and this looks like the better chance at it.

 
Oh, I'd love to see it too, and despite the fact that USD actually beat UNI a few weeks ago, I think USD is going to end up being a bit of an easier game than the one at UNI.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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ST_Lawson
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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
wiu712
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Sunny Saturday morning. 

High will be 61 today with abundant sunshine.  Winds:  SSW at 10-15 mph.
WIU2DC
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23 graduating seniors…. Didn’t realize it was that many!


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sealhall74
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Our D needs  more stopitude. 
Embrace the pace of the race.
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sealhall74
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Dumb play calls on our last possession in half. Should have eaten up more clock. Cost us 7. 
Embrace the pace of the race.
rocki
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AAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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