Saturday, November 15th at 2 PM at Caughlin-Alumni Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota
Leathernecks take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits
SDSU is sitting at 6-4 overall, 3-3 in the MVFC
Western is currently 4-6 overall, 2-4 in the MVFC
Western is out of the playoff picture at this point, and can really only hope to play potential spoiler for SDSU and/or Indiana State. Winning out the season would give us a 6-6 overall record, 5-3 in the conference, which would be our best finish since 2010, when we were 7-4 overall (5-3 in conference) and made the playoffs, winning at Coastal Carolina, then losing at App State. It's obviously possible (we beat YSU and came very close vs ISUr and NDSU), but SDSU and ISUb are both very good teams fighting for playoff spots, so it won't be easy.
SDSU still has a chance at the playoffs. If they win out, they're 8-4 and they're in. If they lose one of their two remaining games (last game is vs USD), then they're probably on the outside edge of the bubble (the FCS selection committee is HIGHLY reluctant to take any team with 5 losses, no matter what conference you're in). Lose both and they're obviously out.
Common opponents:
Illinois State - Western lost by 3, SDSU lost by 35
Northern Iowa - Western lost by 14, SDSU won by 3
Youngstown State - Western won by 6, SDSU lost by 3
North Dakota State - Western lost by 7, SDSU lost by 20
Looking just at those numbers and using transitive properties (which are dumb, I know...this is pretty much just for fun)....
Western is better than SDSU because Western beat Youngstown State and YSU beat SDSU
however...
SDSU beat Northern Iowa and UNI beat Western
If you look at the 4 common opponents, there's a point spread differential (positive is in WIU's favor, negative is in SDSU's favor) of...32, -17, 9, 13...to an average point spread differential between each of our games against a common opponent of 9.25 (in Western's favor).
That being said, SDSU has a better record, they are more highly ranked, and currently they're
favored to win by 10 points (according to Massey Ratings).
The NCAA has a nice stat utility that allows you to look up where each team is ranked in the FCS and in Conference in a whole bunch of stats, as well as compare multiple teams (and individual performances...at the bottom)
You can check out the comparison of Western and SDSU here.
One thing that we'll need to watch out for this game is the somewhat improved passing game. In the past, SDSU has been slightly more one-dimensional (Zenner runs for 200+ and 3-5 TDs...etc.). This year though, SDSU has been starting a QB that is a bit better at passing, and they have a couple of decent receivers that have been getting in on the action. In terms of receiving yards, SDSU's Jake Wieneke has 521 on the season and is a bit ahead of Lance Lenoir (508 yards). Then you have the #2 receivers...SDSU's Jason Schneider with 374 yards vs Hi-C Scott with 337. Zenner's per-game rushing yardage is actually up this season vs last year (156.3 ypg vs last year's 143.9), but his TD average is down vs last year (1.3 TD per game vs last year's 1.64 TD per game average). What this sounds like to me is that they've started using receivers more when they're in red zone situations. Instead of just handing it off to Zenner to pound the ball across the line all the time, they're spreading the wealth around a bit. Offensive stats (scoring, yards per game, etc.) for the most part are equal or improved over last year, but with the side benefit of being less 1-dimensional. Last year, if a team could shut down Zenner, they'd likely win (the only two games where he had less than 100 yards last year were two of their losses). This year, however, when Zenner gets less than 100 yards, SDSU is 1-1 (win vs UNI, loss vs NDSU).
What does this all mean for us...probably more of what we've seen in previous games this season. We can usually stop the run, but we have trouble with the pass game. If our offense can actually put up enough points to compensate for the passing TDs we give up, then we can win. I feel like the offense is really coming together, not that USD was that tough of a defensive opponent (they're 103 out of 121 in the FCS in total defense so far this year), but hopefully last weekend's game will give our guys a boost of confidence and they can roll it into more offensive success this weekend.
Also, regarding the cold...I wonder if Coach N will be holding a couple of morning practices this week (are there rules against when practices can be held during school?) to get the guys used to the cold. Highs in the low 30s all week means ~20 degrees in the morning, so if they can get outside some in that, maybe they can build up their tolerance a bit.