Leatherneck Nation

So with football season close approaching and our young team slowly maturing I think it is time to open a strong discussion about predictions for the team and what we think we will see from the Offense and the Defense. Personally everything I have thought for last year or so has been off, but I want to hear what everyone else thinks.

Offense: I could see this being a record setting year for passing. Trenton has matured beyond his years and we have multiple talented wide receivers which I can see lighting it up. As for the Running back situation I think we will all be surprised because Nikko Watson is back which I was never high on that horse, but I think he will end season as the short yardage back behind 1 of 2 people which is either Devon Sanders who played well last year in limited time or I could really see Brock Broughton having a huge breakout year as a redshirt freshman and just tearing apart defenses. As for the line we know they are going to be good and will have no problem opening wholes and protecting QB.

Defense: This was where we took a large hit losing Martinez Davis, Dallas Nichols, Kevin Kintzel and JJ Raffelson (injury). I did see hope from some younger players like Myles Spearman so we may be better than we think, though we also lost our Defensive Coordinator and to my knowledge never really replaced him. I could see this being our biggest reason if we do not succeed this year, well that and lack of fan attendance.

Special Teams: Short and sweet, our kicker has shown much improvement over his first year two years ago so we should be a little better in this area and hopefully will not have to worry much about this losing games for us.

WIU Predictions: I am going with 6-5, maybe 7-4 if our D can rise to the challenge.

9/3/2015 - Eastern Illinois --- W Why? Because we have better talent and it is a home game.
9/12/2015 - Illinois --- L Though it should be said Illinois sucks so crazier thing have happened than WIU beating them.
9/19/2015 - Coastal Carolina --- W This is 50/50, but discipline can win it or lose it.
10/3/2015 - Southern Illinois --- W It is a mess down there right now I see us finially winning a homecoming!!! (crossing fingers)
10/10/2015 - South Dakota --- W Not much to say here, I think if we lose this we just tossed the season at this point especially at home.
10/17/2015 - Northern Iowa --- L This is 50/50, but I think they have a lot of talent.
10/24/2015 - Illinois State --- L Once again they are good, but beatable though I am giving them home field advantage and a close loss... again
10/31/2015 - Youngstown State --- W I think larger fan turnout if it is a nice day to see Bo ends up drowning them and we pull it out.
11/7/2015 - North Dakota State --- L I mean common they may have lost players, but they always reload
11/14/2015 - Indiana State --- W They showed promise last year, but will have to prove it wasn't a fluke
11/21/2015 - South Dakota State --- L Hate to end season on a loss, but we never do well late in season against SDSU.


MVFC Standings
NDSU
ISUR
SDSU
WIU
UNI
YSU
SIU
ISUB
MOST
SDU

I messed around with the numbers from the current Massey preseason predictions which I assume have mostly historical data to go on:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8754&s=279541

Based on those numbers, here is the computed forecast (Poisson Binomial Distrubution) for expected wins this year:

Probability of 0 wins: 0.0009
Probability of 1 wins: 0.0114
Probability of 2 wins: 0.0594
Probability of 3 wins: 0.1617
Probability of 4 wins: 0.2587
Probability of 5 wins: 0.2576
Probability of 6 wins: 0.1638
Probability of 7 wins: 0.0667
Probability of 8 wins: 0.0171
Probability of 9 wins: 0.0026
Probability of 10 wins: 0.0002
Probability of 11 wins: 0.0000

So somewhere in the 3-6 range for wins is looking mighty promising this year. That said, these numbers can be put to shame if enough quality time is spent in the weight room and film room.

I will let someone from the WIU math and computing departments verify my calculations and coded algorithmic translations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_b ... stribution

function WIUPigskinPreseasonForecast() {
// below are the current Massey preseason predictions for our scheduled games (> .50 implies we are favorite)
var probs = [0.76, // EIU
0.24, // UofI
0.36, // CCU
0.59, // SIU
0.82, // USD
0.18, // UNI
0.15, // ISUr
0.56, // YSU
0.10, // NDSU
0.39, // ISUb
0.40 // SDSU
];
var cumulative = 1;
for (var wins = 0; wins <= 11; wins++) {
var prob = probK(wins, probs);
cumulative -= prob;
Logger.log(sprintf("Probability of %s wins: %s", wins, prob.toFixed(4)));
}
Logger.log(cumulative.toFixed(6)); // sanity check; should be 0 or damn close
}
function probK(k, prob) {
if (k == 0) {
var pk = 1;
prob.forEach(function(pi) { pk *= (1 - pi); });
} else {
pk = 0;
for (var i = 1; i <= k; i++)
pk += (Math.pow(-1, i-1) * probK(k-i, prob) * Ti(i, prob)); // recursive call
pk = 1 / k * pk;
}
return pk;
}
function Ti(i, prob) {
var ti = 0;
prob.forEach(function(e) { ti += Math.pow(e / (1 - e), i); });
return ti;
}

I really think this team has a chance to be first one in while to post a record above .500, but with such a tough schedule it is kind of all up in the air. If we were in the OVC we would have good chance of going undefeated in our conference games, but the MVFC is so loaded it is scary.

So according to the numbers/metrics the Illinois Fighting Illini are the 4th toughest opponent our Leathernecks will face?

Just my opinion but perhaps the MVFC needs to stop scheduling teams out of the BIG TEN, they are bringing down our strength of schedule for at large bids.

I am extremely upset I have to miss the Illini game due to a wedding. I will be watching on my phone for sure!

RedNeck wrote:So according to the numbers/metrics the Illinois Fighting Illini are the 4th toughest opponent our Leathernecks will face?

Just my opinion but perhaps the MVFC needs to stop scheduling teams out of the BIG TEN, they are bringing down our strength of schedule for at large bids.

This doesn't really surprise me at all. Just looking at the Massey numbers, NDSU, ISUr, and UNI are all ranked higher than U of I, and honestly, considering it's so far from here, I'd say Coastal Carolina will be just as tough if not tougher than U of I as well. They're nearly as good as the top of the MVFC, and at least with the U of I game, we should have a decent WIU crowd (and probably a relatively small Illini crowd), as opposed to CCU, where it'll likely be 98% Chant fans (even more considering it's their home opener....first game with the new teal turf).

It'll be interesting to see which FCS schools have the toughest schedules for next season because I'd bet we'll be right up near the top.

We will definitely have a year where our hopes don't get lifted by playing mediocre teams. We will have a decent challenge to begin the year, but Definitely could see us ending 2-1 in non-conference. Just depends on how well the defense cycled with all the losses.

WIU0812 wrote:We will definitely have a year where our hopes don't get lifted by playing mediocre teams. We will have a decent challenge to begin the year, but Definitely could see us ending 2-1 in non-conference. Just depends on how well the defense cycled with all the losses.

Yea...closest thing to a "cupcake" we have this year is maybe Eastern IL or South Dakota, and I don't think either will be pushovers. No 40-point victories this year, I'd imagine.