Leatherneck Nation

Here's the updated Massey Ratings and Score Projections. For future games, I've included (in parentheses) the % chance from last week, to show increase/decrease in winning chance over the previous week.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)

Future Games:

at North Dakota St., 19% chance (down from 22%), projected score 34-21
at Indiana State, 53% chance (down from 60%), projected score 28-26
vs South Dakota St. 36% chance (down from 42%), projected score 28-23

So, projected one more win (against ISUb) and a record of 5-6 overall, 4-4 in the conference. We essentially have to win out to make the playoffs (barring crazy scenarios).

you will beat SDSU & IND ST I predict, but not NDSU

6-5 would be a great season for WIU & a better one in 2016

I'm just going to put the remaining week's Massey Ratings and Score Projections in 1 thread, rather than having a different one each week.
So, here's where things stand:

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)
at North Dakota St., 19% chance (projected score 34-21, 13pt spread), we lost 59-7 (52pt spread)

Future Games:
at Indiana State, 55% chance (up from 53%), projected score 31-28
vs South Dakota St. 33% chance (down from 36%), projected score 27-21

Despite us losing so badly, the fact that ISUb lost by nearly the same score to a team that we already beat ended up pushing our chance of victory a little higher.
But, our loss and SDSU's close win over ISUr dropped our chances of winning that game a bit.

Final week of Massey Ratings and predictions:

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)
at North Dakota St., 19% chance (projected 34-21, 13pt spread), we lost 59-7 (52pt spread)
at Indiana State, 55% chance (projected 31-28), we won (in OT) 37-30 (7pt spread), although it was 30-30 at the end of regulation, so I think that prediction was pretty darn close

Future Game:
vs South Dakota St. 34% chance (up from 33%), projected score 29-23

One more game, one more chance to win. It's possible...we went into UNI with lower odds...but it won't be easy.

Ok, apparently that wasn't the final week of Massey Ratings and predictions...so, here's where we're at now. I'll just keep doing these until the end of the season.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)
@ Illinois State, 29% chance (projected 31-24, 7pt spread) - we lost 48-28 (20pt spread)
vs Youngstown State, 61% chance (projected 31-27, 4pt spread) - we lost 23-21 (2pt spread the other direction)
@ North Dakota St., 19% chance (projected 34-21, 13pt spread), we lost 59-7 (52pt spread)
@ Indiana State, 55% chance (projected 31-28) - we won (in OT) 37-30 (7pt spread), although it was 30-30 at the end of regulation, so I think that prediction was pretty darn close
vs South Dakota St., 34% chance (projected 29-23) - we won (in 2OT) 30-24
@ Dayton (Playoffs), 87% chance (projected 34-17), we won 24-7

Future Game:
@ Illinois State (Playoffs), 21% chance (projected score of 35-24)

We've beaten the odds a couple of times this season...maybe we can do it again.