Spring 2021 - Week 7 vs Youngstown State

[ST_Lawson]

VS
Date/Time: Saturday, April 3 at 7 PM
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 4/2) - 65° and clear, 0% chance of rain, ~8 mph wind

WIU Radio: Mixlr
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: https://goleathernecks.com/sidearmstats ... ll/summary

On to the Penguins. Youngstown State is currently 1-4 this season, starting off with 4 straight losses: 25-7 at NDSU, 21-0 against UNI, 30-22 against SIU, and 19-17 at SDSU, before earning their first win two weeks ago, 28-10 over USD. Their game last weekend against UND was rescheduled for the end of the season, so they're coming off what is essentially a "bye week". In the all-time series, YSU holds the lead, 20-13. The last matchup between the two teams was a 59-14 Penguin win in 2019, although the last 4 games have been split, with WIU winning in 2014 and 2018, YSU winning in 2015 and 2019.

Offensively, YSU is putting up 168.2 ypg on the ground (33rd in FCS) and 83.4 ypg (90th) through the air. This is pretty much the opposite of our offense, that gains 55 ypg on the ground (92nd) but 292 ypg in the air (14th). Neither team has had great luck at getting the ball into the end zone, with WIU at 70th in the FCS with 18.6 ppg and YSU at 85th with 15.2 ppg. Their defense is a bit better than ours, giving up 21 ppg (34th) and 311.8 ypg (28th) vs ours at 34.6 ppg (82nd) and 461 ypg (87th), and their strength is against the pass, where they're 18th in the FCS in passing yards allowed.

Their redshirt freshman QB, Mark Waid, has a 68.2 ypg average with 2 TDs and 2 INTs and has been sacked 9 times. He has a passing efficiency of 106.2 this season. Waid is also the second-leading rusher on the team, averaging 50.2 ypg with 2 rushing TDs. Jaleel McLaughlin gets the most carries, averaging 95 ypg with 4 TDs. TE Jake Benio is the top receiver with 9 catches for 70 yards in 5 games. On defense, LB Grant Dixon leads the team with 39 tackles (26 solo) including 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 interception.

Current Predictions
Massey Ratings gives us about a 35% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 27-21 for the Penguins.
Sagarin Rankings lists us at #207 out of all DI teams, with YSU at #165 https://sagarin.usatoday.com/college-fo ... ings-2020/.

[ST_Lawson]

Also quick update...apparently Connor Sampson is getting himself on the school record books in a few areas.
He already had the #1 game for completions last year (34 against Illinois State), but he's now solidified himself at the top of the list, which currently looks like this:
1. 40 completions against Northern Iowa (2021)
2. 34 against ILSU (2019)
34 against MSU (2021)
4. 33 against UND (2021)
5. Paul Singer's 32 completions (twice) against MSU in '87 and Western Kentucky in '88

With so few games this season, he's got a small chance to get on the top 10 list for completions in a season (currently has 158 with 3 games left...10th is currently 201). His 2019 performance of 231 completions put him at #4 though. He currently sits at #8 for career completions with 400, with #7 being Russ Michna (418). Also, his current average of 288.6 passing ypg would be the best passing average for a season in WIU history.

And yet...we're 0-5. Could you imagine what we could be doing with a better run game to balance things out?

[wiu712]

This game will also be on WIUS Radio (88.3 FM) with Kevin Dieppa.

[letsgonecks]

Unless they find a way to win, we'll potentially lose to our 5th Freshman QB.

I know most are reshirted and they've basically had 2 years in the system, but most teams would love their chances of facing 5 of 6 FR QBs. The other starter being a soph and starting because they're SR wanted to train for the pros.

I get teams don't win and lose soley by the QB, but would think at least 1 or 2 would be forced into enough mistake, we'd take advantage and get a win.

Hopefully this week!!!!

[wiu712]

Youngstown State won last year's game 59-14.

Stat Salt has Youngstown as a 10-point favorite in this year's game:
https://statsalt.com/games/ncaaf/4-3-20 ... tion-6146/

[sealhall74]

My neural network trained with statistics from 2016-2019 and using team stats from this year is predicting a very close high-scoring game.
It has WIU (team t2 below) by 1 in a 34-33 nailbiter:

{
Game: 56,
T1: [ 0.35, 0.41, 0.32, 0.75 ],
T2: [ 0.38, 0.17, 0.43, 0.23 ],
Predicted: { t1: 33, t2: 34, pts: 67 }
}

[wiu712]

Sunny and 69 in the afternoon today. Winds WSW at 15 to 25 mph. Higher wind gusts possible.

[sealhall74]

I now have all of the stats available to the neural network software.

YSU is showing up as 12 point favorite in a 34-22 battle.

{
Game: 56,
t1: '["N/A"]',
t2: '["N/A"]',
Predicted: { t1: 34, t2: 22, pts: 56 }
}

[letsgonecks]

Great punt, but Sampson had Bender out of the slot wide open in the flat. Assuming that should have been his first read.

Let's go D.

[letsgonecks]

Was wondering how long it was going to take YSU to realize the DT was 240lbs true freahman. Ran right at him, but not all on him as no one else was even close.