Fall 2021 - Week 4 - at Youngstown State

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ST_Lawson
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Date/Time: Saturday, September 25 at 5 PM (Central)
Location: Stambaugh Stadium "The Ice Castle", Youngstown, OH
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 9/23): 62 and 19% chance of precipitation, 8 mph wind

WIU Radio: Mixlr, Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
YSU Radio: NewsRadio 570 WKBN
TV/Video Stream: ESPN3, ESPN+
Live Stats: https://www.ysusports.com/sports/fball/ ... 5_gg7m.xml
Game Notes: Western Illinois, Youngstown State

Yes...0-3 in non-conference matchups is not how we wanted to start the season. To be fair, 2 of those games were against Top 10-ranked FCS teams and the other was against a pretty good G5 FBS team, so even most above-average FCS teams would have probably ended up with the same record. Still, not a great start to the season, but now we're on to conference games. Up first is the Youngstown State Penguins.

YSU is currently 1-1 on their season, having pulled out an OT win over Incarnate Word (who beat FBS Texas State last Saturday), then lost their FBS game against Michigan State (42-14), before taking an early bye last weekend. Obviously, with a limited range of data like that, it's a little hard to deduce much from the stats, but overall they are a much more heavily run-oriented team. In their matchup with UIW, they put up 351 yards and 4 TDs on the ground, with only 112 yards and 1 TD through the air. Their R-Freshman QB, Deameatric Crenshaw has a completion rate of 54.3% with 193 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT through their 2 games. He also has run for 75 yards per game and 3 TDs himself, so he's going to be a running threat. Their top rusher is Senior TB Jaleel McLaughlin, who has run for 138 ypg with 2 rushing TDs, as well as catching 3 passes for 76 yards (38 ypg, which leads the team currently). Overall the team has not lost any fumbles and has only had 1 pass intercepted so far, so they're pretty good at holding onto the ball when they have it.

On the defensive side of things, they're led by Sophomore DB Jordan White, with 16 total tackles, 2 breakups, and 2 passes defended. Sophomore DB Augstin D'Marco gets in on the action with 15 tackles (1 for loss) and 1 forced fumble. Closer to the line, Senior LB Grant Dixon has picked up 13 tackles including 1/2 for loss, and has 1 breakup and 1 pass defended. Overall, their current defensive rankings statistically aren't all that great, but again, they've only played two games and against a wide range of competition. Against Incarnate Word, they gave up 138 yards and 2 TDs rushing and 352 yards and 4 TDs passing, so it seems like they're weaker against the pass (UIW is a much stronger passing team than they are a running team, so take that with a grain of salt).

Here's the current full ranking summary in the FCS for Youngstown State.

I think we all know at this point what the strengths are of our Leatherneck team, heavily into to the passing game and...um...our punting is pretty good. If you want to check out the full stat rankings for us, that's available here. Youngstown State is favored by a little bit in this game, but I think this will be one of our better opportunities for a win this season (this and the two ISUs). We're going to have to work to limit their run game as much as possible, but that won't be easy considering we've given up 223 ypg on the ground this season. I think that this will be a high scoring game...not at the level of our game last weekend though, because YSU is going to get a lot of their yardage on the ground and are less likely to be throwing down 70+ yard TD passes. If we are able to slow them down more than we slowed down Eastern Washington, I think we could see something resembling a 42-38 Leatherneck victory.

Other Predictions
Massey Ratings gives us a 34% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 31-24.
Sagarin Ratings lists us as the 179th best DI team, with Youngstown State at 152. An 18% chance of victory with a spread of 13.85.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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letsgonecks
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This is going to be tough, we need to get ahead early and force them to pass.  Top RB and a running QB vs the worst run defense. Granted, we're currently the worst pass defense in the conference as well, but would have a better chance stopping that.

They run a lot of 3 wide to spread the field with 1 and 2 back shotgun sets. QBs ability to run holds the LB's and Jaleel is very quick to edge.  Not sure how we stop this, but hopefully have a package with more guys in the box.  Put the pressure on our DB's,  but need cut down the run. 

We'll struggle to keep the the big plays limited and don't think they'll have a problem getting 5+ a pop.

Hopefully Benton is back this week.

 
 
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For anyone going to the game, it looks like YSU has quite a few things planned on gameday:

Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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I don't know what to think of this game.  Definitely the worst team we've faced so far.  I don't see them holding us under 30, but also can't say our D can stop their running game.  As long as they run the ball, Conner and crew are on the sidelines.  I I still think we get the W.  I'm going to say 31-17 ish, but won't be surprised if we score in the 40s.  
letsgonecks
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GV wrote:Thu Jan 01, 1970 3:22 am I don't know what to think of this game.  Definitely the worst team we've faced so far.  I don't see them holding us under 30, but also can't say our D can stop their running game.  As long as they run the ball, Conner and crew are on the sidelines.  I I still think we get the W.  I'm going to say 31-17 ish, but won't be surprised if we score in the 40s.  

 
Holding you to this GV....Leathernecks for the W and tied for first in the conference!!!!

 
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letsgonecks wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:04 pm
GV wrote:Thu Jan 01, 1970 3:22 am I don't know what to think of this game.  Definitely the worst team we've faced so far.  I don't see them holding us under 30, but also can't say our D can stop their running game.  As long as they run the ball, Conner and crew are on the sidelines.  I I still think we get the W.  I'm going to say 31-17 ish, but won't be surprised if we score in the 40s.  


 
Holding you to this GV....Leathernecks for the W and tied for first in the conference!!!!

 

 
I'll take that!!  Then come home with some momentum for HC vs that evil school from the South! 
 
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MVFC Week 4 Primer from MissouriValleyBeat.com: https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post ... k-4-primer
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I am anxious to get my neural network prediction mechanism going.  It is based entirely on past stats and I had it working well before the season started.  But lo and behold, the MVFC now has their stat page in a different and interactive format so I have some more parsing work to do.  Not only is the format different, the damn ASP page does not load entirely when I try to scrape it.  Have to manually copy and paste the web page source data it into my own server space.  If all goes well, I should have the predictor ready for next week.  So, this week I will be going with the "Arm-Chair QB Off The Cuff" prediction:

Necks 34 Guins 28
 
 
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ST_Lawson wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:34 pm MVFC Week 4 Primer from MissouriValleyBeat.com: https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post ... k-4-primer

 
Thanks for sharing this link Scott!  I didn't know about this Blog, looks to be a good site.  
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GV wrote:Thu Jan 01, 1970 3:22 am
ST_Lawson wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:34 pm MVFC Week 4 Primer from MissouriValleyBeat.com: https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post ... k-4-primer


 
Thanks for sharing this link Scott!  I didn't know about this Blog, looks to be a good site.  

 
Yeah, they seem to do a pretty good job posting previews of games and then they do a follow-up reviewing what happened afterwards.

Here's another article rundown and previews of the MVFC games this week: https://www.college-sports-journal.com/ ... 4-preview/
This one is thinking we'll lose, but only by 3. Personally, I think it'll be a bit more high scoring than they're predicting, but it seems like most people are thinking this one is essentially a toss-up.
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