Fall 2021 - Week 1 - at Ball State

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ST_Lawson
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Date/Time: Thursday, September 2 at 6 PM (Central time)
Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 8/31) - 71° and clear, 0% chance of rain, ~5 mph wind (I don't think you could ask for better weather for a season opener)

WIU Radio: Mixlr
BSU Radio: WLBC
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+
Live Stats: https://goleathernecks.com/sidearmstats ... ll/summary

Game Notes: Western Illinois, Ball State

First game of the season, so obviously we don't know too much about either team yet. When last we saw our Leatherneck football team on the field, it was early April, and we'd just come off our first/only win of the season against Youngstown State. Overall, WIU finished 1-5 in the spring season and didn't have much to be real excited about. We did finish 11th in the FCS in passing offense, putting up 293.5 yards per game (ypg) through the air with an overall completion percentage of .646 (13th in FCS). Otherwise, our run game was 95th (out of 97 teams) only averaging 56.3 ypg, and our defense gave up 444.5 ypg (86th). We allowed 32.8 points per game, while only putting up an average of 20 ourselves, and we finished last in the FCS in time of possession. You can view our full stat breakdown here.

Ball State meanwhile, played their games in the late fall/early winter, kicking off with their only loss of the season against Miami (OH) on November 4th. They would go on to win the rest of the regular season (5 conference games), the MAC championship gamea against Buffalo, and then win their bowl game against San Jose State to finish 7-1. BSU has a few strengths, with their defense forcing a number of turnovers...10 intercepted and 8 fumbles recovered...leading to 3 defensive TDs (7th in the FBS). Overall, they were 6th in the FBS in turnover margin. Their offense was 27th in the FBS, putting up 447.2 ypg and was 25th in scoring, with 34.2 points per game. Overall, the offense was pretty balanced, with 269.2 ypg through the air and 178 ypg on the ground. You can view their full stat breakdown here.. BSU was picked to win the MAC again this season and is returning 10 of their 12 All-MAC players from last year.

So, we have our work cut out for us this year. Ball State was ranked in the AP Top 25 at the end of last season, and was one of the best of the G5 teams on the field. We, meanwhile...did not perform up to what most of us probably were hoping for. We do actually have a decent record against Ball State, leading the series 3-1, but our last matchup was 21 years ago, when we won a 24-14 contest in 2000 against them. 7 of our 8 FBS/I-A wins have come against MAC teams, so we do have a history of performing fairly well against the conference. That being said, I don't see it being likely that we'll win this one. So really, I'm just hoping for a strong performance from the team, specifically improvement in the ground game and time of possession.

Current Predictions
Massey Ratings gives us about a 17% chance of winning this game, with a predicted score of 35-17 for the Cardinals.
Sagarin Rankings lists us at #186 out of all DI teams, with BSU at #48 (https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/col ... ings-2021/) and they're giving us about a 4% chance of victory in this game.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
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A few points...

1) This game is about $$, let's be honest. $350,000 to our Athletic Dept; badly needed cash influx. So my number one goal is to get through the game as healthy as we were coming in.
2) Is our OL truly improved as we have been hearing? Would like to see 75 yds rushing, and 3 or less sacks. I'd imagine our offense will be very predictable by the second half, so we have to be careful putting too much on this game. But we need to "look" like a D1 Offense.
3) Can our front 7 get to the right spots? No blown assignments leading to chunk plays in the running game.
4) Can our DBs keep plays in front of them? No blown coverages, letting receivers get behind them in the post. If a DB gets physically beat up the sideline I can understand that. But getting beat mentally drives me crazy!

Not going to predict a score, because to me that's really not important. What I want to see is a team that looks like a worthy opponent, plays hard, and plays fundamentally sound. Let's have some fun and play some football! GO NECKS!!
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sealhall74
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Last fall, Ball State ranked 11 out of 12 MAC teams in pass defense so we got our presumed strength matched up with their presumed achilles heel. If we can mix in some good yardage via the run to keep them off balance, who knows what might happen. You find out alot about a coach in a game like this. Does he like to play it safe and not show all his cards before conference season starts or does he open up the whole play book and go for the W? We shall see.

Related to $s, how many charters are we taking this year? No doubt Montana, What about Grand Forks and Youngstown?
Embrace the pace of the race.
wiu712
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Sad to see that once again there will be no local radio broadcast of the games. That is a strange scenario considering that the university owns and operates two radio stations.
GV Dad
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sealhall74 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:54 am

Related to $s, how many charters are we taking this year? No doubt Montana, What about Grand Forks and Youngstown?
Seems like I heard once that any trip over 8hrs is a Charter flight? So my guess would be 3 for this season.
GV Dad
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Predictions thread from Ball State's message board. A lot of them are thinking the game will be closer than they want it to be.

https://overthepylon.boards.net/thread/ ... redictions
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ST_Lawson
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They're headed to Muncie...

Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
wiu712
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Sports Chat Place has Ball State as a 25.5 point favorite in Thursday night's game.
https://sportschatplace.com/cfb-picks/2 ... -9-2-2021/
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ST_Lawson
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Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
letsgonecks
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Happy Upset Day, aka Game Day!!!!!
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