AT 
Date/Time: Saturday, October 9 at 12 PM (Central)
Location: Memorial Stadium, Terre Haute, IN
Weather Forecast at Kickoff (as of 10/4): 73 degrees, mostly cloudy, 0% chance of precipitation, ~4 mph wind
WIU Radio: Mixlr, Q98.1 (Cuba, IL)
ISU Radio: 105.5 WVIG The Legend
TV/Video Stream: ESPN+, ESPN3
Live Stats: from Indiana State
Game Notes: Not posted yet
So, I guess we're now the toughest 1-4 team out there (according to multiple FCS fans on Reddit and AnyGivenSaturday)...which is something, I suppose. Still hurts that we couldn't quite get it done against SIU. But anyway, on to next week.
Indiana State is 2-3 so far, with a 0-2 MVFC record. They started off the season with a 26-21 win over (currently 1-5) Eastern Illinois, then lost 24-6 at FBS Northwestern. They took on former OVC member Eastern Kentucky (currently 3-2) and won 23-21 before heading into MVFC season. In the conference, they have hosted South Dakota State and were steamrolled 44-0, then traveled to South Dakota and lost 38-10.
Against the Sycamores, WIU holds a 26-17 series lead, which dates back to 1967. WIU has lost the last 2 matchups, but going back to 2002, our series record is 15-5. The last time we played INSU was in 2019, which was a 20-10 loss at Terre Haute.
Taking a look at the Sycamores statistically, their offense is currently 115th in the FCS with an average of 232.8 ypg and 113th in scoring with 13 ppg. Their passing game (102nd) is a little better than their run game (109th), but neither are really scaring anyone so far. They've used a couple of QBs this season with Junior Kurtis Wilderman (who played well in the win over EKU) throwing for 51.5 ypg with 1 TD and 1 INT, however he was out last weekend against South Dakota, so Senior Anthony Thompson got the nod. Thompson is averaging 103 ypg with 3 TDs and 4 INTs. In terms of receptions, Senior WR Rontrez Morgan has 26 catches, but is only averaging 36.6 ypg. Senior TE Zach Larkin and Grad WR Phazione McClurge each have 2 receiving TDs, but neither have more than 42 ypg. McClurge received a MVFC newcomer of the week award a couple of weeks ago their win over EKU where he caught 2 TD receptions, including this game-winning goal-line grab as time expired. On the ground, Senior RB Peterson Kerlegrand averages 45.6 ypg with 1 TD. The next best rushing performance was from one of the backup QBs who has under 30 ypg in 2 games with 1 rushing TD.
The INSU defense is ranked #62 in the FCS, giving up 374.8 ypg and 70th in scoring, allowing 29.6 ypg. The strength of their defense is against the pass, where they are 41st in the FCS allowing 205.6 ypg and 81st on the ground, allowing 169.2 ypg. They are fairly solid at getting to the QB though, with 2.6 sacks per game (30th in FCS). Junior DB Michael Thomas leads the team with 41 tackles (22 solo) and has 1 sack and 2 INTs and received a MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award following their win over Eastern Illinois. Junior LB Stephen Heath II has gotten to the QB 3 times for a total of 23 yards in his 17 tackles. Also, Senior DB Hunter Lunsford picked up a MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award after the win over EKU when he picked up a blocked punt and took it to the end zone for 6.
You can check out ISU's full statistic ranking summary here.
For comparison, here's our statistic ranking summary.
So, what are my thoughts on this game? Well, on paper, we should win this one (Massey Ratings gives us 59% chance with a predicted score of 27-24), but you can never underestimate a MVFC opponent, especially when you're playing on the road. Every team in the conference has the potential to play a tough game and hang in there to the end, so if we're going to come on strong in the second half like we have been, I'd like to see us at least even, if not having the lead at halftime. They're averaging just over 6,000 fans at their 2 home games, so the crowd shouldn't be huge, but I'd like to take their impact out of the game as soon as possible. If I had to guess, I'd say that we're likely to put up more points than a team like Eastern Illinois or Eastern Kentucky, but we're also likely to allow more than either of the SD teams did. My prediction is a 38-24 Leatherneck victory.
Also, just FYI, I'm going to be away from a computer starting Tuesday the 5th and won't be back until the 13th. If I don't get links and things updated before the game (which I do plan on watching from my phone on ESPN+) and if I'm a bit less active around here over the next week, that's the reason.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin