Leatherneck Nation

AT
Western Illinois at Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Date: 9/23/2023
Kickoff: 7 PM (Central)
Location: Eccles Coliseum, Cedar City, UT
Media: ESPN+, Q98.1 FM
Game Notes: Southern Utah | Western Illinois

About Southern Utah
SUU is a public university located in Cedar City, Utah with approximately 14.3k students. They currently compete in the United Athletic Conference (WAC and ASUN football merger) for football and the WAC for all other sports. They have previously been a part of the Big Sky conference, and prior to that, spent some time in the Summit League for non-football sports.
WIU has played Southern Utah 5 times so far, with WIU holding a 4-1 lead in the series. We won both games in a H&H series in '97 and '98, then both in another series in '01 and '02. Last year they got their first win against us, 17-10 in Macomb.
SUU is also the new home for our last head men's basketball coach, Rob Jeter.

Southern Utah's Record and Stats
SUU is currently 0-3 on the season, although they've probably had the toughest schedule up to this point of anyone in the FCS. They lost at FBS Arizona State, 21-24, then lost at FBS BYU 41-16, and last week lost at FCS #16 UC Davis, 23-21. So, all three on the road, against 2 P5 FBS teams (both future members of the Big 12), and a ranked FCS team...with two of those games within a FG.
Last season, they went 5-6 including the previously-mentioned 17-10 win against us in Macomb.
Their primary QB is Senior Justin Miller, who has a 127.85 QB rating in 3 games, averaging 227 ypg with essentially a 50% completion rate, 5 TDs, and 2 INTs. Top receivers are R-Freshman WR Zach Mitchell (93 ypg, 2 TDs) and Senior WR Isaiah Wooden (87 ypg and 3 TDs). On the ground, they rely on R-Sophomore RB Braedon Wissler (27 ypg) and Junior RB Targhee Lambson (25.67 ypg and 2 TDs).
Defensively, Sophomore LB Kohner Cullimore (20 tackles, 2 for loss) and R-Senior LB Aubrey Nellems (19 tackles, 1 for loss) lead the team in tackles. Sophomore CB Quadir Lockett-Smith has the team's only interception, to go along with 11 tackles.
Their regular punter is junior Alyas Vigil, with a 41.39 yard average and 1 of 50+ yards, although their QB has also made 3 punts this season. In FGs, R-Freshman Kicker Tyler Graham has 2 attempts, making 1 from 29 yards and missing one in the 40-49 yard range.

Chance of Victory
Massey Ratings says we have an 18% chance of a win, with a predicted score of 35-21.
Sagarin gives us about a 28% chance to win.
 
 
 

What is our QB’s ranking and stats compared to Southern UTAh?

Let’s wrote: What is our QB’s ranking and stats compared to Southern UTAh?

 

Here's a full stats comparison between the two teams.

For the QBs of the two teams:
WIU's Matt Morrissey - 137.2 QB Rating, 67 completions in 115 attempts (58.26% completion rate), 845 yards (281.67 per game), 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Also 2 rushing TDs.
SUU's Justin Miller - 127.85 QB Rating, 44 completions in 89 attempts (49.44% completion rate), 682 yards (227.33 per game), 5 TDs and 2 INTs. 0 rushing TDs.

In anyone's opinion, how much will the elevation hurt our game? Unless I Googled it wrong, it looks like a heck of a difference. If we're gassed by the second half here, I don't know what to think.

rocki wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:16 pm In anyone's opinion, how much will the elevation hurt our game? Unless I Googled it wrong, it looks like a heck of a difference. If we're gassed by the second half here, I don't know what to think.


 

May help our game in one way.  Kickoffs, punts and FGs may travel a few yards further. No more pooch kicks please.  
 
 

sealhall74 wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:31 pm

rocki wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:16 pm In anyone's opinion, how much will the elevation hurt our game? Unless I Googled it wrong, it looks like a heck of a difference. If we're gassed by the second half here, I don't know what to think.



 

May help our game in one way.  Kickoffs, punts and FGs may travel a few yards further. No more pooch kicks please.  
 
 

 

Do we do that on purpose, or is our kicking just that bad?

rocki wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:42 pm

sealhall74 wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:31 pm

rocki wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:16 pm In anyone's opinion, how much will the elevation hurt our game? Unless I Googled it wrong, it looks like a heck of a difference. If we're gassed by the second half here, I don't know what to think.




 

May help our game in one way.  Kickoffs, punts and FGs may travel a few yards further. No more pooch kicks please.  
 
 


 

Do we do that on purpose, or is our kicking just that bad?

 

We did those on purpose last game because their returner was really good and we could not kick the ball into end zone to prevent a return.

ST_Lawson wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:04 am

Let’s wrote: What is our QB’s ranking and stats compared to Southern UTAh?


 

Here's a full stats comparison between the two teams.

For the QBs of the two teams:
WIU's Matt Morrissey - 137.2 QB Rating, 67 completions in 115 attempts (58.26% completion rate), 845 yards (281.67 per game), 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Also 2 rushing TDs.
SUU's Justin Miller - 127.85 QB Rating, 44 completions in 89 attempts (49.44% completion rate), 682 yards (227.33 per game), 5 TDs and 2 INTs. 0 rushing TDs.

 

That’s a very good breakdown, thank you, Sir!  I’d say we have a good QB!  Not going to this game.  Sending lots of positive thoughts and energy to our Leatherneck Football Team!  Go Necks!
 

Let’s wrote:

ST_Lawson wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:04 am

Let’s wrote: What is our QB’s ranking and stats compared to Southern UTAh?



 

Here's a full stats comparison between the two teams.

For the QBs of the two teams:
WIU's Matt Morrissey - 137.2 QB Rating, 67 completions in 115 attempts (58.26% completion rate), 845 yards (281.67 per game), 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Also 2 rushing TDs.
SUU's Justin Miller - 127.85 QB Rating, 44 completions in 89 attempts (49.44% completion rate), 682 yards (227.33 per game), 5 TDs and 2 INTs. 0 rushing TDs.


 

That’s a very good breakdown, thank you, Sir!  I’d say we have a good QB!  Not going to this game.  Sending lots of positive thoughts and energy to our Leatherneck Football Team!  Go Necks!
 
 

Yup, there are plenty of weak spots, but I don't think QB is one of them. What's really nice is he should have at least one more year of eligibility left after this. If we can get him a bit better of an O-line, he could be really good.
He played:

• 2021 at Trinity Valley CC (must have been spring season)
• Fall 2021 in 2 games at UNI
• 2022 season in 3 games at UNI

If one of those UNI seasons counts as a "redshirt" (4 or fewer games), then this is his "3rd year". If any of those seasons counts as a "free COVID year" also, then he may have two more seasons left, depending on how things are classified.

WGEM-TV prediction:  Southern Utah 33, Western Illinois 23