2016 Leatherneck Football Preview - Season Predictions

[ST_Lawson]

So, we are now 1 week out from our first game at Eastern Illinois. Time for my overall season predictions. Because I'm going through each game individually, I'll have to do this in parts, with Part 1 coming today, and Part 2 probably tomorrow. So....here's Part 1.

Overall Season Predictions
So, what do I think we’ll see this season?

Offensively - in short, a strong pass-heavy attack...longer throws and throws out to the edges to the WRs...shorter throws to TEs. We’ll run some, when we need to, but I think some of what used to be rushing attempts will be replaced by short passes to TEs who can plow through for the few yards that we’re looking for that play.

Defensively - I think we’ll mostly see a 4-3 defense (4 linemen, 3 LBs, 4 DBs), probably not a huge change from last year, but probably with a better focus on not giving up big plays (was a HUGE problem in a few games last year)

Special Teams - fewer blocked kicks now that we have coaches assigned to specifically work with the ST blocking crew.

Game-by-Game
Now, most of you who’ve been around for a while know that I generally do a full game breakdown (with updated stats, odds, etc.) the week before each game...because obviously it’s going to be much easier for me to talk about the games later in the season if we’ve seen the teams play a few games already. So, this is pretty much just going to be my “quick and dirty” previews of each game, what I think our likelihood of winning them are at this point in time, as well as a quick “look back” at the last time we faced that team.

9/1 - at Eastern Illinois
Last year, we played EIU in Macomb to start the season, winning a lopsided (score-wise) but sloppy game by a score of 33-5. If you remember, it was in the upper 80s with very little wind and humid, and the Panther players were having a very difficult time with cramping up due to the heat (we didn’t seem to have that issue, thankfully...better conditioning it looks like).

This year, the game will be at Charleston, IL. Eastern has lost a few of their key players from last year, but it looks like they’ll still be a pretty decent team (they did make the playoffs last year as well....losing in the first round to UNI). Most polls have them in the “others receiving votes” section. Having the game there instead of here will give them a slight boost, but I think we have the advantage overall. We’re generally favored by about a TD, which I think is probably about right for the first game of the season with a new coaching staff. I think we’ll win this one.

9/10 - vs Northern Arizona (Family Day/Ag Day)
Last time we faced Northern Arizona (yes, it’s happened before) was in the ‘67 season...we went out to Flagstaff and lost 34-0. But, a lot can change in 49 years, of course, so we’ll likely see a somewhat different result this time. Northern Arizona finished 7-4 last season and just missed the playoffs (they were one of the handful of teams who had a legitimate chance at one of the last playoff spots that we took). They bring with them the reigning FCS Freshman of the Year in QB Case Cookus, who threw for 3,111 yards and 37 touchdowns with only five interceptions. His primary target, WR Emmanuel Butler is back as well this year; Butler caught for 1,208 yards and 15 TDs last season. That being said, the Lumberjacks also fall into the category of the typical “Big Sky Defense”...as in, their “defensive scheme” is just “score more points than the opponent”. They were 116th in the FCS last year on defense, giving up 474 total yards per game and 34.6 points per game. They were actually a VERY similar team to Southern IL last year, both top 10 in passing offense due to an amazingly talented QB, but in the bottom 11 of the FCS for yards per game allowed by their defense. SIU had a better running game than NAU last year, and the Lumberjacks have graduated their top RB. For those that don’t remember, we did beat SIU last year, although it was a close game.

So, I’m not worried about scoring points….AT...ALL. My one worry is if our defense can hold up against the NAU offense...or more specifically...passing attack. I think that the extra year of experience for our LBs and DBs will help though. Part of the high numbers of the NAU offense can be chalked up to the fact that they played mostly against other Big Sky teams (many with fairly porous defenses compared to what we usually see in the MVFC. Many of their games just came down to whomever scored last...7 of their 11 games had total scores in the 80-90 range (for comparison, our highest last year was 76 total points in our first game @ Illinois State).

My verdict...high scoring, like last year’s SIU game, but we’re able to hold their offense down below their average, and they have absolutely no answer to ours. Could be an exciting game, but we’ll win it.

9/24 - at Northern Illinois
FBS/$ Game time. Like the last few years, we’re playing an FBS game in Illinois...which is nice because we usually have a decent crowd. NIU is coming off an 8-5 regular season where they went to the Poinsettia Bowl and got demolished by Boise State (55-7). The last time we faced NIU was in 2009 when they defeated us 41-7 (that was the year that Barr got injured and we only won 1 game...although Barr wasn’t injured at that point in the season), but prior to that we did have a 3-game winning streak going against them (in ‘96, ‘99, and ‘02).

I’m not going to get too deep into their offense and defense. Both are halfway decent for an FBS team, which means that it’s going to be a tough game for us. They have a 2015 All-MAC first team RB (Joel Bouagnon), a first team CB (Shawun Lurry) and they bring back the defending MAC special teams player of the year in KR Aregeros Turner, so those are just a couple of the things we’ll have to really watch out for.

NIU isn’t quite the same as they were a few years back when they were flirting with the top 25, but they’re still a pretty decent FBS team. Last year, NIU did really well on gaining turnovers (8th in FBS with 29), but also really poorly on losing turnovers (116th with 27). Looking a little deeper into the stats, it looks like they were very good (4th in the FBS) at intercepting the ball specifically, but below average (88th) at recovering fumbles. On the other side, they were slightly better than average at having their own passes intercepted (41st), but horrible at losing fumbles (125th). CB Lurry is exceptional at interceptions (led the entire FBS last year with 0.6 per game) and one of the best at defending passes (3rd in the FBS).

If we’re going to win this game, I think we’ll need to take advantage of their propensity for turning the ball over on the ground and snag a couple of fumbles. Hopefully Taylor and Brott can work a little magic with this. We’ll also need to not make mistakes on our passing offense. Any longer pass that is not on target will be a prime candidate for a Lurry interception. Other than that, if we can slow down their RB, I think we match up fairly well.

Massey Ratings has our odds of winning for this game at 26% (which is the same as our odds for this year’s NDSU game and actually a little bit better than our odds were for the UNI game last year, which we won) so there’s obviously a chance. Personally, I think it’s likely that we’ll be a lot closer this game than the last time we played them, but they’ll probably still come away with the win. So, I’m counting this as a loss (and hoping I’m proved wrong) and a 2-1 record going into the conference portion of the season.

Stay tuned for Part 2 in the next day or two.

[Western_101]

Good post, good reading material, I made sure to have my coffee and a comfy perch.

[letsgonecks]

NIU will be really tough this year. Still think we have a shot, but they're solid. Last year the season went down hill after QB Hare tore his achilles. Back up Graham got hurt against Ohio and they brought in a True Freshman Fiedler, who was clearly not ready. Graham came back for the Bowl game, but they never looked the same after they lost Hare, who is back and supposedly 100%. They had a shot last year against OSU (20-13) and return most the key pieces. We'll have a good idea of they're ability the week before us against San Diego State.

Excited to see Lance and Joey match up against Lurry who is on the Nagurski Award Watch List. Sure he'll be in the talks for the Thorpe Award as well. Wonder if he'll be tasked with staying on Lance full-time?

They also have a stud back in Bouagnon who is on the Maxwell Watch list. DL will have to have a great game to slow his big frame down.

Edit
Forgot they also have WR Kenny Golladay on the Biletnikoff Award Watch List. Just another stud WR our DB's are going to have their hands with this year (Butler NAU, Warrum ISU, Wieneke SDSU). Golladay was a stud for University of North Dakota before transferring NIU.

[ST_Lawson]

You know what, I think it'll just be easier if I post each one as I get it done. That way I can get the content out faster and you guys can discuss a bit before I post up the next one.

So, on to conference play...

10/1 - at South Dakota State

Our last matchup with SDSU was a memorable one...but if you’ve forgotten, it was the last game of the regular season, SDSU had been delayed getting out of their airport multiple times due to a pretty huge snowstorm coming across the upper midwest. When they finally got going and landed in Peoria, it was pretty late in the evening. The next morning, driving to Macomb was tricky, with snow and wind in the morning, then being stuck behind a car accident for a while and eventually decided to push back the kickoff to 2:35 in the afternoon (from a 1 PM kickoff originally). Once the game actually got going, it was a pretty “back-and-forth” affair, resulting in a 17-all tie at the end of regulation. Two overtimes and a Sean McGuire 7-yard QB keeper TD run later, we came away with the exciting win (and were treated to a view of the football team doing “belly whoppers” down the hill next to the stadium). The win knocked SDSU out of a playoff seed and gave us a strong 6th win that was just enough for the playoff committee to put us in the playoff field as one of the last at-large teams.

Now, on to this year. SDSU has essentially resolved their “QB controversy” from last year with the naming of true sophomore Taryn Christion as the starter. If I remember correctly, Christion is the more mobile QB (the other guy has a better arm, but has had injury issues, I think). Of course, their star WR, Jake Wieneke is back as well (only a Junior this year, so we’ll see him again in ‘17….yeay ). Wieneke is probably the second best WR in the FCS, was conference freshman of the year two years ago and has been a first team selection on pretty much all of the All-America (FCS) and All-Conference teams last year. He averaged 122.7 yards per game and 20.4 yards per catch last season and will likely be difficult to contend with again this year.

On the defensive side of the ball, they’re pretty solid as well. There’s a beast of a lineman named Cole Langer who led the team with 10 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks last season (he had a career-best 7 tackles against us last year). Langer was named to the 2016 MVFC Preseason Team. Another guy that we need to watch out for is LB Jesse Bobbit. The Palatine, IL native was second on the team last year with 97 tackles and 6.5 for loss, including 11 tackles against us last year.

So, they’ll be tough. I think last year, we got a bit lucky (not that we weren’t a good team last year, but you gotta admit, the weather situation did help us a bit in that game). This time though, the game is in early October rather than late November, it’s going to be the conference opener at their new place (the brand new Dykehouse Stadium...seriously, it looks amazing...see photo below), and they’ll likely be looking for revenge for what happened at the end of last season. I think we’ll play well, but the Jackrabbits will take this one, putting us at 2-2 overall and 0-1 in the conference at this point (don’t worry, it gets mostly better from here on out).

[ST_Lawson]

10/8 - vs Indiana State (Homecoming)

Last year’s game against the Trees was the first of two “must win” games for us if we wanted any hope of making the playoffs (we were 4-5 at that point and pretty much needed to win both of them to have even a slim shot). With Trenton Norvell out with appendicitis, this was essentially Sean McGuire’s “coming out party”, where he passed for 332 yards and a TD as well as running for 28 yards and another TD. Indiana State got out early, at one point being up 20-3, but we battled back and tied it up in the 4th to force OT. Then in overtime, a Nikko Watson TD run and a stopped ISU drive gave us the victory.

This year, the Sycamores are probably down a bit vs last year’s 5-6 team. They lost all but 11 of their starters including their star QB (who was their top rushing TD scorer, their second-best rusher and of course, their top passer), their top RB (in yds per game) and 1 of their 2 top WRs (they had two that were nearly tied in most stats). Defensively, they lost their top tackler and their top INT guy. They also lost their primary punter from last year. This isn’t to say that they don’t have any playmakers on the team, they did get one guy on the Preseason All-MVFC team...long snapper Joshua Appel...who actually is one of the best LS’s in the country...was also Preseason First Team All-American for FCS this season). To be fair, they do also have a decent WR in Robert Tonyan (54.6 ypg with 6 TDs last year, but his stats were split evenly with a Senior, so he’ll likely step up as the primary receiver this year...also was Preseason All-MVFC honorable mention), and a decent LB in Jameer Thurman (75 total tackles, 2 INTs last year).

That being said, I don’t see a lot of their guys who can match up with our guys. They’re trending down and we’re trending up. Plus, it’s Homecoming...should be a nice loud crowd...lots of excitement, lots of energy. I just don’t see us likely losing this game. I say we get a nice solid homecoming win and go to 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the conference.

[ST_Lawson]

10/15 - at Missouri State

Ah...Missouri State...it’s so nice to have you back on the schedule again. Due to MVFC scheduling, the last time we played the Bears was in 2013, Norvell, Lenoir, and Borsellino’s freshman year. We actually lost that game 38-27, but that was a season where they went 5-6 and we went 4-7...so, while they weren’t great, we were a little bit worse. In the time since then, however, we’ve been steadily moving up, and they’ve been moving down. In 2014, they went 4-8 and we finished 5-7, then in 2015 they ended up 1-10 (with their only win an 8 point victory over DII Chadron State) and we went 6-5 in the regular season, then 1-1 in the playoffs.

They have a solid LB in Dylan Cole (a first team STATS FCS preseason All-American and All-MVFC preseason team member who led the team in total tackles last year with 152 with 12 for loss and 2.5 sacks). They also have a pretty good kick return guy named Deion Holliman who last year broke Todd Speight’s conference record for yards gained on kickoff returns in a season (1,059 yards) and tied Speight’s conference record for most kickoff returns (50), which put him at an average of 21.2 yards per kick return (good for #2 in the conference). Add in a few receiving and rushing yards and Holliman is the team leader in all-purpose yards with an average of 120.7 yards per game.

Outside of Mr. Cole and Mr. Holliman, I don’t see much that we need to be particularly worried about (I mean us as fans...obviously the football team needs to do their due diligence and come fully prepared...which I’m sure they will). Their best rusher last year averaged 43.9 yards per game, but he’s gone now...the next guy up had 34.5 yards per game last year. Their best WR last year averaged 35.2 yards per game….in fact, their entire total team receiving yardage last year was 1,160 (Lenoir by himself had 1,184 last season).

MSU has been in “rebuilding mode” for the last couple of seasons, and at this point, I don’t really see any indication that they’ve started to work their way back up yet. It’s at their place, and they’ve traditionally had decent crowds (averaged 10,036 fans per game...it’s no NDSU, but it was good enough for 5th in the conference last year), but I don’t think that’s going to really help them enough. Plus, considering this year’s seniors (the ones who have been here for all 4 years) are overall 0-1 against the Bears, there might be a bit of a desire for revenge, even though it’s been a few years. I think we’ll come away with a fairly solid victory and pull to 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the conference.

[ST_Lawson]

10/22 - vs North Dakota State

North Dakota State...NDSU...the Bison...not sure there’s much I need to say about them. Almost nobody has had success against them in their last 5 championship seasons. They’ve lost a total of 5 games and won 5 national championships in that time frame. Most of us either vividly remember last season’s matchup with NDSU or have completely blocked it out of their minds. We made mistakes early that they capitalized on, piled on 38 points in the first half and never looked back in a 59-7 victory that was WAY more lopsided than it should have been. Following the game we heard reports that Norvell had been ill (which we found out later to be appendicitis...NDSU ended up being his last game of season)...but still, the loss was embarrassing.

On to this year. Yes, they lost their star QB who would end up going #2 overall in the NFL draft, but the next man up in this case (Easton Stick) is still an elite QB for our level of football, leading the Bison to an 8-0 record under his command while Wentz was out with a wrist injury and causing a legitimate “QB controversy” over which one to start in the championship game. They lost a few other top-notch players as well, but really...they do that every year and they’ve not had a problem in recent history filling those spots with fully capable replacements.

Probably their biggest strength is in time of possession (leading all of DI last year with 36 minutes per game)...the way they can conduct an 8-10 minute long clock-killing drive down the field to completely exhaust and demoralize a defense is a thing of beauty (as long as you aren’t on the receiving end of it). Seriously...if you missed it the first time and are able to find a way to watch it, take a look at their second to last drive of their playoff game against Richmond. It started at their own 13 with just over a minute left in the 3rd quarter with NDSU up by 19 (a very good lead, for sure, but not entirely insurmountable with just over a quarter left in the game) and wouldn’t finish until the Bison had taken 10 minutes and gone 87 yards in 18 plays finishing with a TD. At that point there was only slightly over 6 minutes left in the game and they were up 33-7...and it was all over at that point.

There are a few things that give me some bit of hope for our chances in this game:

• We are better this year than we were last year
• I consider last year’s game to be a “fluke”...we likely would have lost...but we shouldn’t have lost by even half as much as we did
• Revenge factor - not only did our players get embarrased in the Fargodome in our game, but Coach Fisher's high-powered Richmond offense was also nearly completely shut down in their playoff game there...both are going to want some revenge for those.
• This year, the game isn’t in the Fargodome...it’s at Hanson Field
• Nearly every year, some unexpected team gives the Bison a conference loss: Youngstown State in 2011, Indiana State in 2012, Northern Iowa in 2014 (not as unexpected...UNI is good too), and South Dakota in 2015….could we be the ones to do it this year?

Outside of a couple of key mistakes on their part and flawless play on our part, I see us having about the same chances against NDSU as we have against Northern Illinois. It’s possible we’ll win...I think every game this year falls into that category...but I don’t think it’s entirely likely.
I think we’ll drop this one, although it’ll be a much closer game than last year and fall to 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the conference.

[BobLovely]

Great write-ups Scott! I will make my prediction on the season when your thoughts are completed. Thanks!

Bob

[ST_Lawson]

10/29 - at South Dakota


The last time we played South Dakota it was at Hanson Field, we won 40-21 on the strength of Norvell’s 288 yards and 3 TD passes (plus another TD rushing) as well as Watson’s 139 yards rushing and a TD...and our coach was Bob Nielson. Flash forward to this game...it’ll be up at the Dakota Dome, our offense is better than it was last year, they lost a HUGE playmaker on defense...and their coach is Bob Nielson.

So, last year’s Freshman of the Year and MVFC First Team All-Conference DL, Andrew Van Ginkel has transferred to Iowa Western C.C. (he’s going the “Cam Newton” route...transfer down to a really good JUCO program, don’t have to sit out a year...finish your sophomore year at a JUCO and you can transfer up to a DI program without sitting out a year...so he can continue to play football and get better and then go to a FBS program...he’s already got offers for 2017 from Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa). Van Ginkel was the sack leader on the team last year with 9 (good for #3 in the conference) and the tackles for loss leader on the team with 18 (#2 in conference). He was also #2 in the conference behind our own Brett Taylor in fumbles recovered with .27 per game. They do get back a decent number of players on offense though, including their QB and top RB. Defensively, they’ve lost a decent number of starters in addition to the previously mentioned Van Ginkel, especially on the front line and the LBs.

Something that USD does have going for them is the coaching staff’s familiarity with our team. 8 of their coaches, including HC Bob Nielson were on our staff last year. That being said, I think that the way the whole process went down left a bad taste in many people’s mouths, and I think that a lot of the players from last year have had this date circled in red on their calendars for a while now. If we had to pick one game to win this season, I think a lot of them would pick this one. You can bet that they will be ready to play going into Vermillion.

I think that the familiarity with our players will be cancelled out by the “grudge” some of them have. The game is in South Dakota, so they’ll have a bit of a boost from that, so I think the game will be closer than our game with them last year. Coach Nielson isn’t a bad coach...he did get us turned around fairly well...but I think we’ve already talked at-length about the differences between last year’s staff and this year’s staff. Coach Nielson got us to be a mid-level conference team (good, but not great) and I think that in a few years, he’ll have USD there as well...but not this year. We’ll come away with a victory against the Coyotes, going to 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the conference.

[rocki]

LOVE the meme for the USD game.