Jackrabbits in Brookings

JackJD
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:12 pm

Weather forecast for Saturday: 20 degrees and a 60% chance of snow. Coach Nielsen is no stranger to those playing conditions. If you're coming up for the game: I hope you have a safe and enjoyable trip. Bring blankets!
rocki
Posts: 1514
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:08 pm

I won't be there, but stay warm Jack!
User avatar
sealhall74
Posts: 5780
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:18 pm
Location: Wherever, Windblows

There is an interesting NCAA rule about use of heaters/fans which applies during the FCS playoffs:

SIDELINE HEATERS
/COOLING FANS
In the event of extreme temperatures, host institutions should provide sideline heaters/cooling fans for both teams.
The cost of renting the heaters /fans can be included as a budgeted expense. If the visiting institution chooses to rent
its own heating/cooling equipment, the host institution is no longer expected to provide such equipment for the visiting team
.

I don't see any BTU limitations, so a clever coach has yet another tool at his disposal to tip the scales in his favor should he decide to use it. Coastal Carolina apparently did just that last year in Montana by bringing some extra heaters with them. It seemed to work magic for them as I recall.

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/2 ... /131209738

Wonder if Coach Nielson does have any Bud Grant in him - No sideline heaters or gloves for them Vikes.
Embrace the pace of the race.
User avatar
ST_Lawson
Site Admin
Posts: 8256
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:15 pm
Location: Macomb, IL
Contact:

Saturday, November 15th at 2 PM at Caughlin-Alumni Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota
Leathernecks take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits

SDSU is sitting at 6-4 overall, 3-3 in the MVFC
Western is currently 4-6 overall, 2-4 in the MVFC

Western is out of the playoff picture at this point, and can really only hope to play potential spoiler for SDSU and/or Indiana State. Winning out the season would give us a 6-6 overall record, 5-3 in the conference, which would be our best finish since 2010, when we were 7-4 overall (5-3 in conference) and made the playoffs, winning at Coastal Carolina, then losing at App State. It's obviously possible (we beat YSU and came very close vs ISUr and NDSU), but SDSU and ISUb are both very good teams fighting for playoff spots, so it won't be easy.
SDSU still has a chance at the playoffs. If they win out, they're 8-4 and they're in. If they lose one of their two remaining games (last game is vs USD), then they're probably on the outside edge of the bubble (the FCS selection committee is HIGHLY reluctant to take any team with 5 losses, no matter what conference you're in). Lose both and they're obviously out.

Common opponents:
Illinois State - Western lost by 3, SDSU lost by 35
Northern Iowa - Western lost by 14, SDSU won by 3
Youngstown State - Western won by 6, SDSU lost by 3
North Dakota State - Western lost by 7, SDSU lost by 20

Looking just at those numbers and using transitive properties (which are dumb, I know...this is pretty much just for fun)....
Western is better than SDSU because Western beat Youngstown State and YSU beat SDSU
however...
SDSU beat Northern Iowa and UNI beat Western

If you look at the 4 common opponents, there's a point spread differential (positive is in WIU's favor, negative is in SDSU's favor) of...32, -17, 9, 13...to an average point spread differential between each of our games against a common opponent of 9.25 (in Western's favor).
That being said, SDSU has a better record, they are more highly ranked, and currently they're favored to win by 10 points (according to Massey Ratings).

The NCAA has a nice stat utility that allows you to look up where each team is ranked in the FCS and in Conference in a whole bunch of stats, as well as compare multiple teams (and individual performances...at the bottom) You can check out the comparison of Western and SDSU here.

One thing that we'll need to watch out for this game is the somewhat improved passing game. In the past, SDSU has been slightly more one-dimensional (Zenner runs for 200+ and 3-5 TDs...etc.). This year though, SDSU has been starting a QB that is a bit better at passing, and they have a couple of decent receivers that have been getting in on the action. In terms of receiving yards, SDSU's Jake Wieneke has 521 on the season and is a bit ahead of Lance Lenoir (508 yards). Then you have the #2 receivers...SDSU's Jason Schneider with 374 yards vs Hi-C Scott with 337. Zenner's per-game rushing yardage is actually up this season vs last year (156.3 ypg vs last year's 143.9), but his TD average is down vs last year (1.3 TD per game vs last year's 1.64 TD per game average). What this sounds like to me is that they've started using receivers more when they're in red zone situations. Instead of just handing it off to Zenner to pound the ball across the line all the time, they're spreading the wealth around a bit. Offensive stats (scoring, yards per game, etc.) for the most part are equal or improved over last year, but with the side benefit of being less 1-dimensional. Last year, if a team could shut down Zenner, they'd likely win (the only two games where he had less than 100 yards last year were two of their losses). This year, however, when Zenner gets less than 100 yards, SDSU is 1-1 (win vs UNI, loss vs NDSU).

What does this all mean for us...probably more of what we've seen in previous games this season. We can usually stop the run, but we have trouble with the pass game. If our offense can actually put up enough points to compensate for the passing TDs we give up, then we can win. I feel like the offense is really coming together, not that USD was that tough of a defensive opponent (they're 103 out of 121 in the FCS in total defense so far this year), but hopefully last weekend's game will give our guys a boost of confidence and they can roll it into more offensive success this weekend.

Also, regarding the cold...I wonder if Coach N will be holding a couple of morning practices this week (are there rules against when practices can be held during school?) to get the guys used to the cold. Highs in the low 30s all week means ~20 degrees in the morning, so if they can get outside some in that, maybe they can build up their tolerance a bit.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
User avatar
WIU0812
Posts: 1061
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:49 pm

ST_Lawson wrote:Saturday, November 15th at 2 PM at Caughlin-Alumni Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota

One thing that we'll need to watch out for this game is the somewhat improved passing game. In the past, SDSU has been slightly more one-dimensional (Zenner runs for 200+ and 3-5 TDs...etc.). This year though, SDSU has been starting a QB that is a bit better at passing, and they have a couple of decent receivers that have been getting in on the action. In terms of receiving yards, SDSU's Jake Wieneke has 521 on the season and is a bit ahead of Lance Lenoir (508 yards). Then you have the #2 receivers...SDSU's Jason Schneider with 374 yards vs Hi-C Scott with 337. Zenner's per-game rushing yardage is actually up this season vs last year (156.3 ypg vs last year's 143.9), but his TD average is down vs last year (1.3 TD per game vs last year's 1.64 TD per game average). What this sounds like to me is that they've started using receivers more when they're in red zone situations. Instead of just handing it off to Zenner to pound the ball across the line all the time, they're spreading the wealth around a bit. Offensive stats (scoring, yards per game, etc.) for the most part are equal or improved over last year, but with the side benefit of being less 1-dimensional. Last year, if a team could shut down Zenner, they'd likely win (the only two games where he had less than 100 yards last year were two of their losses). This year, however, when Zenner gets less than 100 yards, SDSU is 1-1 (win vs UNI, loss vs NDSU).
Your stats are a bit different than what is shown on the Goleatherneck.com site.

Lance Lenoir - 878 Yds Receiving w/ 5 TDs
Hi-C Scott - 547 Yds Receiving w/ 5 TDs
Joey Borsellino - 385 Yds Receiving w/ 3 TDs
Quadarias Mireles - 257 Yds Receiving w/ 2 TDs
User avatar
ST_Lawson
Site Admin
Posts: 8256
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:15 pm
Location: Macomb, IL
Contact:

That is so weird. I guess I can't trust the stats I'm getting from the NCAA website.
At first I thought maybe the error was that they were only showing stats in FCS games (excluding Northwestern and Wisconsin)...but that would make Lenoir's yardage for the season 749.
Then I thought...ok, maybe it's just conference games...but nope...that's 628.

Ok, I'll have to do a bit more research into it, but just for comparison based on what's on each school's own sites (all stats are through 10 games played unless otherwise stated):

RBs
SDSU's Zenner - 1426 net yards, 13 TDs
WIU's Baker - 1005 net yards, 3 TDs

WRs
SDSU's Jake Wieneke - 982 yards, 11 TDs
WIU's Lance Lenoir - 878 yards, 5 TDs
SDSU's Jason Schneider - 565 yards, 3 TDs
WIU's Hi-C Scott - 547 yards, 5 TDs
WIU's Joey Borsellino - 385 yards, 3 TDs
SDSU's Trevor Wesley - 298 yards, 1 TD

SDSU's Top 3 WR Totals - 1845 yards, 15 TDs
WIU's Top 3 WR Totals - 1810 yards, 11 TDs

QBs
SDSU's Zach Lujan (played in 8/10 games) - 1911 yards (238.9 per game), 13 TDs (1.625 per game), 10 INTs, 137.42 QB Rating
WIU's Trenton Norvell (played 10 games) - 2462 yards (246.2 per game), 20 TDs (2 per game), 9 INTs, 137.95 QB Rating
SDSU's Austin Sumner (played in 3/10 games) - 485 yards (242.5 per game), 3 TDs (1.5 per game), 3 INTs, 126.42 QB Rating

Anyway, even taking into account whatever modification changed the actual numbers, I think how they relate to each other (Lenoir vs Wieneke, etc.) is still fairly similar.

EDIT - realized another "glitch" in my numbers...SDSU's primary QB, Austin Sumner, was injured for a good chunk of the season. Looks like he was injured against Mizzou (season opener) and didn't return until their game two weeks ago against NDSU and then played against ISUb last weekend. I've added him and his numbers to the QBs list above. He only attempted 4 passes for 7 yards before he was injured in that first game, so I'm only including the two full games he's played in the above stats.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
User avatar
ST_Lawson
Site Admin
Posts: 8256
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:15 pm
Location: Macomb, IL
Contact:

And I figured out my error...apparently I had the date set incorrectly on the rankings and stats for the NCAA page. So...my fault on that.

I'll update that previously linked PDF with the current numbers next, so that'll be accurate.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Western Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
JackJD
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:12 pm

Thanks for the stats, St. Lawson.
Our QB, Austin Sumner, was the pre-season All-MVFC QB but, as you noted, minutes into the Missouri game he broke his foot when he planted it in the turf. He sat out until the NDSU game when he was cleared to play. He looked pretty good in the ISUb game the following weekend and seemed to show more mobility as the clock wore down.
Last edited by JackJD on Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JackJD
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:12 pm

I wasn't aware of the rule on heating and cooling fans...thanks for that info sealhall.

I don't think we'll have any trouble "cooling fans" on Saturday.
OldHare
Posts: 211
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 10:25 am

If there are any Leathernecks coming to Brookings, feel free to look to some hospitality while in town.
Post Reply