10/14/23 - vs Missouri State (Homecoming)

[ST_Lawson]

VS
Western Illinois VS Missouri State Bears
Date: 10/14/2023
Kickoff: 3 PM (Central)
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Media: ESPN+, Q98.1 FM
Game Notes: Western Illinois | Missouri State
Weather: Currently projected to be cloudy with a high of 59 and about a 22% chance of rain throughout the day.

MSU's Record and Stats
The Bears currently sit at 1-4 overall with an 0-2 conference record. They opened the season with a 48-17 loss at FBS Kansas, then a 38-31 defeat at UT Martin. Their home opener was a 59-14 win over Utah Tech, but they've had a tough schedule since then, losing 33-20 at Southern Illinois, then 38-10 at home against North Dakota State. Last year the Bears finished 5-6 including a 64-14 win over our Leathernecks. Historically, WIU has played Missouri State 39 times dating back to 1981. MSU holds a 20-18-1 series record and have won the last three matchups against us.

• MSU's started the season with Junior QB Jacob Clark, who has a QB rating of 171.92 and 254.5 ypg with 10 TDs and 2 INTs, but due to injury, started Junior QB Jordan Pachot against NDSU. On the season, Pachot has a QB rating of 153.11 with 98 ypg, 1 TD and 1 INT. It sounds like the injury was fairly mild and Clark was projected to sit out a week or two. I'd imagine that they might start Pachot and if the end up needing Clark, they might bring him in, but otherwise probably rest him most/all of the game.
•  Missouri State leads the MVFC and ranks 3rd nationally in passing offense, racking up 316.2 yards per game through the air. MSU's passing game also ranks 15th in the FCS in yards per completion (13.87) -- also tops in the MVFC -- and 17th in pass efficiency (151.60).
• Making a strong push for All-America honors, Raylen Sharpe (Jr., Allen, Texas) ranks 6th nationally in receptions per game (7.0) and 7th in receiving yards per game (92.6), both of which lead the MVFC. He has racked up 100+ receiving yards in three of the last four games and is coming off a 13-reception game (153 yards) against North Dakota State, just one shy of MSU's single-game receptions record.
• Bears safety Todric McGee (So., Wichita Kan.) has taken over the MVFC lead in total tackles per game (10.6), which is 13th nationally among all FCS defenders. McGee is also 12th nationally in solo stops per contest (6.0), which is second only to WIU's Bradyn Smith (6.8) in The Valley. He is coming off a game-high 13 total stops against NDSU (7 solos), for his third 10+ tackle game this season.
• Wide receiver Hunter Wood (Jr., Springdale, Ark.) has recorded 3 receiving TDs, which is tied for second-best in the MVFC, while fellow receiver Terique Owens (Sr., Pleasanton, Calif.) ranks 17th nationally in yards per reception (20.58), which is 1st in The Valley.
• Behind All-America punter Grant Burkett (Jr., Joplin, Mo.), the Bears rank 6th nationally in net punting (41.53), which leads the MVFC, and 9th in punt return defense (1.0). Burkett is the FCS active career leader in punting average (43.9). His 42.19 punting average this season ranks 4th in the MVFC.

View the full stat comparison between the two teams.

Chance of Victory
Massey says 16% chance of a WIU victory, with a predicted score of 35-21 for the Bears: https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288016
Sagarin says 16% chance of a win.
So...I'd say not very likely. Our best chance of a win the rest of the season is likely Indiana State, who is also 0-5, including a 27-0 loss to EIU and a 2-point loss to fellow MVFC "cellar dweller" Murray State.
 
 
 

[sealhall74]

Looking at the stats, neither team can run the ball nor stop the run that well.  MSU looks a tad better in the air game both offensively and defensively.  My two cents is plan on attacking them on the ground and eat up the clock.  If you have been saving your trick plays and misdirections, now is the time to dust them off.  The wind looks like it will be a significant factor making it difficult to air it out.

Now let me work on the neural network and see what it has to say.  Stay tuned.

BREAKING NEWS
Shocker alert.  You heard it here first.  Leathernecks will blow out the Bears on Homecoming.
{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Missouri St.', score: 6.359 },
  team2: { id: 'Western Ill.', score: 50.837 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

How reliable is my neural network you ask?  It is currently predicting the correct winner in about 75% of the FCS games. 
I am not real happy with its score accuracy though as margin differences are off by around two TDs on average. 
But give them 2 extra TDs or take away 2 TDs from us, we still win.  
 
 
 
 

[Necks2003]

Unfortunately....I suspect MSU will have their best running game of the season from what we have seen so far.
 

[4EverPurple&Gold]

Maybe we can get some homecoming magic and pull this one out... 

Either way I am looking forward to hoops season now! 

[rocki]

I realize this has absolutely nothing to do with the eventual outcome of the game, but I sincerely hope we don't suit the players up in those hideous yellow uniform shirts again. They were uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugly!!!!!!!!

[sealhall74]

I realize this has absolutely nothing to do with the eventual outcome of the game, but I sincerely hope we don't suit the players up in those hideous yellow uniform shirts again. They were uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugly!!!!!!!!

 

I am ok with any shade of gold as long as play on the field is as good as gold.  
 
 

[leatherneckcountry]

I realize this has absolutely nothing to do with the eventual outcome of the game, but I sincerely hope we don't suit the players up in those hideous yellow uniform shirts again. They were uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugly!!!!!!!!


 

I am ok with any shade of gold as long as play on the field is as good as gold.  
 
 

 

I guess I'm in the minority because i really liked the uniforms 

[wiu712]

WGEM Prediction:  Missouri State 42, Western Illinois 20.
 
 

[leatherneckcountry]

Call me crazy but I get a hunch that we find a way to pull one off today 45-38

[leatherneckcountry]

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