11/5 - vs Illinois State
The Redbirds...the team so nice we played them twice….oh...wait. Many of you probably remember last year, where we twice had to head across the middle of the state to take on ISU...once in late October at their Homecoming game in the regular season (a 48-28 loss) and once in early December in the second round of the playoffs (a 36-19 loss). Both games were really closer than the scores would indicate and in both cases, third quarter leads dissolved when ISU was able to capitalize on a few huge plays. In the first game, especially, we’d allow one of their couple of star players to slip through and they’d make a big play...TDs from 65 yds, 41 yds, 65 yds, and 83 yds...for example.
However...the big playmaking QB Roberson...he’s gone...the fast RB Coprich...gone too. The WR Warrum is back, but with MUCH less of a threat of Roberson or Coprich breaking huge runs, our defense will be able to focus on him a bit better. Their QB Jake Kolbe is decent, but he’s no Roberson (especially in the running game). ISU does have a good O-line though, and they do bring back a couple of playmakers on defense including the talented Junior DB, Alec Kocour (78 tackles, 3 INTs and 1 forced fumble in 9 games last season).
So, they’re still a good team, but not quite as explosive as they have been the last couple of seasons. The game this year is back in Macomb and after letting the last three games against ISU slip away (remember that 2014 game where they scored 31 points in the last 17 ½ minutes of the game to storm back and win on a FG as time expired?....yea...me neither) I don’t think the players are going to let another one get away. Not when we’re this talented, not at home again, and not against the closest thing to a “rival” that we have in football. This will be the 99th meeting of WIU vs ISU and I think there’ll be enough fight in the team to win this game.
Oh, and one more thing...the team that eliminated Illinois State in the playoffs the week after we played them...that was the Richmond Spiders...with an offensive coordinator that many of us are much more familiar with today...Coach Fisher knows how to beat Illinois State.
It’ll be close...it’ll be exciting...but we’ll take down the Redbirds for the first time since 2010, moving up to 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the conference.
2016 Leatherneck Football Preview - Season Predictions
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
11/12 - vs Northern Iowa
Last year at Northern Iowa was a pretty fun game. We got up early starting with a 95-yard INT returned for a TD by Aaron Diggs. We added a few more scores to get a good lead fairly early (21-3 at one point in the 2nd quarter), but the Panthers clawed back later in the game, eventually pulling within 2. A Knuffman FG and an INT by David Griffith shut down UNI’s chances of winning and we came away with the victory, 24-19.
This year the game will be back here in Macomb, which is good, because we’ll need every advantage we can get to take down the Panthers this time. Of particular note is STATS first team FCS Preseason All-American (and All-MVFC), DL Karter Shult (who, at this point, is projected to be a late-round NFL draft pick, but could move up depending on this year’s performance), but they do have a lot of talent across the whole defense. On the offensive side of the ball, they’ll be led by MVFC Preseason Team QB Aaron Bailey who was both the leading passer on the team (118.29 yards per game, 13 TDs and 6 INTs) and the leading rusher (95.29 yards per game rushing, 19 rushing TDs). O-lineman Robert Rathje could also cause our defense some problems, especially the D-Line. They also have a very good punter, MVFC Preseason Team member Sam Kuhter (averaged 42.71 on 75 punts with 26 inside the 20).
Most people are predicting that UNI will be better this year than they were last year, but so are we, and this game is at home. Still...UNI seems to play better the further into the season that they get, so I’m not a fan of facing them in November (they’re 12-1 in November games over the last 3 years, and that includes a couple of first-round playoff games also). I gotta say that this one is a toss-up for me. I’d like to pick us to win it, but I think the experience of most of their key players will give them a bit of a boost and they’ll win a close one, putting us at 6-4 overall and 4-3 in the conference. I’d love to be proved wrong though.
Last year at Northern Iowa was a pretty fun game. We got up early starting with a 95-yard INT returned for a TD by Aaron Diggs. We added a few more scores to get a good lead fairly early (21-3 at one point in the 2nd quarter), but the Panthers clawed back later in the game, eventually pulling within 2. A Knuffman FG and an INT by David Griffith shut down UNI’s chances of winning and we came away with the victory, 24-19.
This year the game will be back here in Macomb, which is good, because we’ll need every advantage we can get to take down the Panthers this time. Of particular note is STATS first team FCS Preseason All-American (and All-MVFC), DL Karter Shult (who, at this point, is projected to be a late-round NFL draft pick, but could move up depending on this year’s performance), but they do have a lot of talent across the whole defense. On the offensive side of the ball, they’ll be led by MVFC Preseason Team QB Aaron Bailey who was both the leading passer on the team (118.29 yards per game, 13 TDs and 6 INTs) and the leading rusher (95.29 yards per game rushing, 19 rushing TDs). O-lineman Robert Rathje could also cause our defense some problems, especially the D-Line. They also have a very good punter, MVFC Preseason Team member Sam Kuhter (averaged 42.71 on 75 punts with 26 inside the 20).
Most people are predicting that UNI will be better this year than they were last year, but so are we, and this game is at home. Still...UNI seems to play better the further into the season that they get, so I’m not a fan of facing them in November (they’re 12-1 in November games over the last 3 years, and that includes a couple of first-round playoff games also). I gotta say that this one is a toss-up for me. I’d like to pick us to win it, but I think the experience of most of their key players will give them a bit of a boost and they’ll win a close one, putting us at 6-4 overall and 4-3 in the conference. I’d love to be proved wrong though.
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
11/19 - at Southern Illinois
Last regular season game of the season, and we head down south to take on the Salukis. Last year, we brought SIU to Hanson Field for Homecoming. It was a pretty back-and-forth game but eventually came away with a close, exciting victory on a last-second 20 yard Knuffman FG, winning 37-36).
Their QB last year, Mark Iannotti, was arguably the best offensive player in the conference last year (many think he should have gotten offensive player of the year over ISU’s Coprich)...leading the team in both passing (290.45 ypg, 24 TDs, 10 INTs) and rushing (65.09 ypg, 9 TDs). Iannotti actually led the conference and was 4th overall in the FCS for passing yards per game. He also led the conference and was 9th overall in passing TDs, as well as leading the conference and being 5th in the FCS in points responsible for per game (includes passing and rushing TDs). Last year, SIU had a very good offense...and Iannotti was probably 90% of that offense.
Defensively, however...SIU was HORRIBLE (113th in the FCS, 9th in the conference). They have a good LB, Chase Allen, who was on the MVFC Preseason team, but outside of him, there’s not much there on that side of the ball. SIU gave up just under 500 yards per game and 34.6 points per game last year, and I don’t see them getting any better this year.
Actually, SIU last year was a VERY similar team to our early-season opponent this year, Northern Arizona. One of the best offenses in the FCS, led by one of the best QBs in the FCS, combined with one of the worst defenses in the FCS. The difference with SIU is...now that QB is gone. I’ve heard SIU fans crowing about their new DII transfer QB, but until I see what he can do against some MVFC-level opponents, I’m not too concerned. I think our guys will look to finish off the season a step improved from last year and we’ll come away with a fairly solid win in Carbondale, finishing the regular season 7-4 overall and 5-3 in the conference.
Last regular season game of the season, and we head down south to take on the Salukis. Last year, we brought SIU to Hanson Field for Homecoming. It was a pretty back-and-forth game but eventually came away with a close, exciting victory on a last-second 20 yard Knuffman FG, winning 37-36).
Their QB last year, Mark Iannotti, was arguably the best offensive player in the conference last year (many think he should have gotten offensive player of the year over ISU’s Coprich)...leading the team in both passing (290.45 ypg, 24 TDs, 10 INTs) and rushing (65.09 ypg, 9 TDs). Iannotti actually led the conference and was 4th overall in the FCS for passing yards per game. He also led the conference and was 9th overall in passing TDs, as well as leading the conference and being 5th in the FCS in points responsible for per game (includes passing and rushing TDs). Last year, SIU had a very good offense...and Iannotti was probably 90% of that offense.
Defensively, however...SIU was HORRIBLE (113th in the FCS, 9th in the conference). They have a good LB, Chase Allen, who was on the MVFC Preseason team, but outside of him, there’s not much there on that side of the ball. SIU gave up just under 500 yards per game and 34.6 points per game last year, and I don’t see them getting any better this year.
Actually, SIU last year was a VERY similar team to our early-season opponent this year, Northern Arizona. One of the best offenses in the FCS, led by one of the best QBs in the FCS, combined with one of the worst defenses in the FCS. The difference with SIU is...now that QB is gone. I’ve heard SIU fans crowing about their new DII transfer QB, but until I see what he can do against some MVFC-level opponents, I’m not too concerned. I think our guys will look to finish off the season a step improved from last year and we’ll come away with a fairly solid win in Carbondale, finishing the regular season 7-4 overall and 5-3 in the conference.
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
Review
So, to recap, I’ve got the following:
Wins - EIU, NAU, ISUb, MSU, USD, ISUr, SIU
Losses - NIU, SDSU, NDSU, UNI
I think that Illinois State is probably our likeliest win out of the three good teams below NDSU (UNI, SDSU, and ISUr), but as long as we pick up one win out of those three (or four, technically...if we take down NDSU), I’m fairly confident we’ll end up 7-4 this season. Of course, anything can happen with unexpected standout players, injuries, other issues...but my gut feeling tells me that 7-4 is likely, and a 7-4 record playing in the MVFC means it’s time to break out the Jim Mora’s…
So how about you guys? Predictions? Thoughts? Think I'm way off base on any of these?
Of course, I'll still do more detailed previews of each team the week before the games (stay tuned for more in-depth on Eastern Illinois early next week), and those will be more accurate probably, since I'll be able to base some things off of how players have done so far in the season.
Thanks for reading.
So, to recap, I’ve got the following:
Wins - EIU, NAU, ISUb, MSU, USD, ISUr, SIU
Losses - NIU, SDSU, NDSU, UNI
I think that Illinois State is probably our likeliest win out of the three good teams below NDSU (UNI, SDSU, and ISUr), but as long as we pick up one win out of those three (or four, technically...if we take down NDSU), I’m fairly confident we’ll end up 7-4 this season. Of course, anything can happen with unexpected standout players, injuries, other issues...but my gut feeling tells me that 7-4 is likely, and a 7-4 record playing in the MVFC means it’s time to break out the Jim Mora’s…
So how about you guys? Predictions? Thoughts? Think I'm way off base on any of these?
Of course, I'll still do more detailed previews of each team the week before the games (stay tuned for more in-depth on Eastern Illinois early next week), and those will be more accurate probably, since I'll be able to base some things off of how players have done so far in the season.
Thanks for reading.
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
Good analysis, Scott!
Being the cock-eyed optimist that I am, I prefer to go back 2 years to remember the ISUr and NDSU games. We came to play both times, and almost pulled them out but got worn down. It's about that time I thought that the team we had last year would be a lot better than they turned out to be - one reason I wasn't on the Bob Nielsen train as much as a lot of others. I felt we regressed last year. Norvell being sick was certainly a contributing factor although McGuire came in and didn't miss a beat. Still, I expected more last year from the offense. Defense might not have been our strong suit, but quite frankly with all the personnel we lost on that side of the ball I was pleasantly surprised with how well the young guys stepped up.
Time will tell - I'm leaning toward the more optimistic of your predictions and an even better result than last season. Can't wait to see the 'Necks take the field!!!
I'm ready for some FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!
Being the cock-eyed optimist that I am, I prefer to go back 2 years to remember the ISUr and NDSU games. We came to play both times, and almost pulled them out but got worn down. It's about that time I thought that the team we had last year would be a lot better than they turned out to be - one reason I wasn't on the Bob Nielsen train as much as a lot of others. I felt we regressed last year. Norvell being sick was certainly a contributing factor although McGuire came in and didn't miss a beat. Still, I expected more last year from the offense. Defense might not have been our strong suit, but quite frankly with all the personnel we lost on that side of the ball I was pleasantly surprised with how well the young guys stepped up.
Time will tell - I'm leaning toward the more optimistic of your predictions and an even better result than last season. Can't wait to see the 'Necks take the field!!!
I'm ready for some FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!
Scott, excellent analysis and predictions! It is hard to find fault with your reasoning on each game.
I am going to agree with all of your predictions except for UNI. I will take us in this match up in Macomb. By late in the season, I expect the Leathernecks to be in solid winning form under first year coach Fisher. So, I am going with 8-3 overall, 6-2 in the conference and selection for the playoffs.
If there is a chance for us to score an upset, it may just be against NIU. Western has generally fared well at times against this in state FBS rival. I believe NIU will presume this game is theirs to win and they may be overconfident. This comment brings me to a story from the past.
My senior year in the fall of 1973, we played NIU in DeKalb. NIU was D1 and we were DII. The Huskies were heavily favored and featured a highly touted RB in Mark Keller. They were also loaded at the skill positions on offense, QB and WR.
After pre-game warm ups, the respective captains met at midfield for the coin toss and introductions. NIU RB Keller refused to shake hands with the WIU captains following player introductions. Captain and DL John Teerlink was visibly angry with the obvious snub by Keller. This pre-game "incident" really inspired the Leatherneck players and coaching staff.
Based on this incident and what appeared to be overconfidence by NIU, Western dominated the game for three quarters and took a 27-13 lead into the 4th quarter. Then, the Huskies came storming back to tie the game at 27 all late in the 4th quarter. The Leathernecks looked fatigued at this point. Western had one last chance for an offensive drive. Gary Birch hit a late FG to give Western a 30-27 edge. The Leatherneck defense held off one last Huskie challenge and we scored a major upset over a D1 team on their home field.
After the game, the NIU players appeared to be in shock as they had just lost to a DII team. Arrogant NIU RB Keller was limited to far less than his normally gaudy rushing output. He quickly disappeared after the game concluded. This was one of greatest Western games I had the chance to witness during my years at WIU.
Bob
I am going to agree with all of your predictions except for UNI. I will take us in this match up in Macomb. By late in the season, I expect the Leathernecks to be in solid winning form under first year coach Fisher. So, I am going with 8-3 overall, 6-2 in the conference and selection for the playoffs.
If there is a chance for us to score an upset, it may just be against NIU. Western has generally fared well at times against this in state FBS rival. I believe NIU will presume this game is theirs to win and they may be overconfident. This comment brings me to a story from the past.
My senior year in the fall of 1973, we played NIU in DeKalb. NIU was D1 and we were DII. The Huskies were heavily favored and featured a highly touted RB in Mark Keller. They were also loaded at the skill positions on offense, QB and WR.
After pre-game warm ups, the respective captains met at midfield for the coin toss and introductions. NIU RB Keller refused to shake hands with the WIU captains following player introductions. Captain and DL John Teerlink was visibly angry with the obvious snub by Keller. This pre-game "incident" really inspired the Leatherneck players and coaching staff.
Based on this incident and what appeared to be overconfidence by NIU, Western dominated the game for three quarters and took a 27-13 lead into the 4th quarter. Then, the Huskies came storming back to tie the game at 27 all late in the 4th quarter. The Leathernecks looked fatigued at this point. Western had one last chance for an offensive drive. Gary Birch hit a late FG to give Western a 30-27 edge. The Leatherneck defense held off one last Huskie challenge and we scored a major upset over a D1 team on their home field.
After the game, the NIU players appeared to be in shock as they had just lost to a DII team. Arrogant NIU RB Keller was limited to far less than his normally gaudy rushing output. He quickly disappeared after the game concluded. This was one of greatest Western games I had the chance to witness during my years at WIU.
Bob
Last edited by BobLovely on Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WIU - Class of 1974
https://www.linkedin.com/in/boblovely
https://www.linkedin.com/in/boblovely
I'd love to see both of those come to pass. Hopefully I'm proven wrong on my predictions.
I've seen some great games at NIU, but hadn't heard that story before. I love upsetting NIU...and we've done it relatively often for a "lower level" school.
I've seen some great games at NIU, but hadn't heard that story before. I love upsetting NIU...and we've done it relatively often for a "lower level" school.
Scott Lawson - Board AdminWestern Illinois University Alum/Fan/Employee
Member of the Marching Leathernecks - 1996-2000
1973 was Western's first year as NCAA Division II.
Prior to that, Western played in the "NCAA College Division". NCAA Divisions II and III were formerly known collectively as the NCAA College Division.
Western moved to NCAA Division I-AA in 1981.
Prior to that, Western played in the "NCAA College Division". NCAA Divisions II and III were formerly known collectively as the NCAA College Division.
Western moved to NCAA Division I-AA in 1981.
I think this is how the two deep looks for the offensive line coming into week one. I will disagree with Scott slightly here as I expect to see us try and establish the run and then pass off that. Of course that is predicated on being able to run effectively.
The line is built inside out with our all-conference candidate Jacob Judd at center and Matt Zobrist (all conference as a soph at tackle?) sliding down to guard from tackle. Drew Wagner at the other guard 6'6 312 "just moves bodies" and was used a lot in short yardage last year as a freshman.
This line is probably nine deep with four capable back ups all having played in past season(s).
Jamie Gilmore (Temple transfer) getting a lot of good compliments, and they have really focused on the inside run game in camp setting up other facets of the offiense.
No Name Pos Ht Wt Cl
55 Josh Baldus LT 6'5" 300 Jr.
76 Drew Wagner LG 6'6" 312 So.
66 Jacob Judd OC 6'3" 300 Jr.
73 Matt Zobrist RG 6'3" 290 Sr.
77 Jams TorgersonRT 6'5" 300 Jr.
No Name Pos Ht Wt Cl
65 Andrew Nichols LT 6'5" 300 Sr.
72 Jordn DetweilerLG 6'5" 303 Jr.
65 Andrew Nichols OC 6'5" 300 Sr.
64 Thomas Kirsch RG 6'6" 307 So.
79 Nick Ziegenbein RT 6'9" 325 Sr.
Tom
The line is built inside out with our all-conference candidate Jacob Judd at center and Matt Zobrist (all conference as a soph at tackle?) sliding down to guard from tackle. Drew Wagner at the other guard 6'6 312 "just moves bodies" and was used a lot in short yardage last year as a freshman.
This line is probably nine deep with four capable back ups all having played in past season(s).
Jamie Gilmore (Temple transfer) getting a lot of good compliments, and they have really focused on the inside run game in camp setting up other facets of the offiense.
No Name Pos Ht Wt Cl
55 Josh Baldus LT 6'5" 300 Jr.
76 Drew Wagner LG 6'6" 312 So.
66 Jacob Judd OC 6'3" 300 Jr.
73 Matt Zobrist RG 6'3" 290 Sr.
77 Jams TorgersonRT 6'5" 300 Jr.
No Name Pos Ht Wt Cl
65 Andrew Nichols LT 6'5" 300 Sr.
72 Jordn DetweilerLG 6'5" 303 Jr.
65 Andrew Nichols OC 6'5" 300 Sr.
64 Thomas Kirsch RG 6'6" 307 So.
79 Nick Ziegenbein RT 6'9" 325 Sr.
Tom
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