VS 
Wohoo!!! It’s the home opener…and Family Day…and Ag Day…and the Balloon Rally…and the Kite Festival…and the first time taking my kids to a home football game…and wow is it going to be a busy weekend.
This weekend we welcome the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks from the Big Sky Conference to Hanson Field. Date/Time: Friday, September 10 at 3 PM Central (1 PM for any NAU fans reading this...they’re in Mountain Time, but don’t do DST, so are currently 2 hours off from Illinois)
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Weather Forecast (as of 9/7): 72 degrees and clear/sunny at kickoff, low (~56%) humidity, minimal winds, and 0% chance of precipitation...a beautiful day for a September football game.
TV: ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Tickets: here’s the regular football ticket info although the School of Agriculture is selling discounted tickets if you buy online through their ticket form here.
NAU’s Record
Only slightly more info than last week’s discussion of EIU’s record...since there is actually one game under NAU’s belt this season, a 44-13 loss at Pac 12 Arizona State (here’s their full 2016 schedule, just fyi). As mentioned before, they play in the Big Sky conference, home of some of the most high-powered offenses in the FCS...Eastern Washington, Montana State, Southern Utah, and of course, NAU themselves.
Last year, NAU went 7-4 overall (5-3 in the Big Sky) but were left out of the playoffs. This might be a bit of a “bone of contention” when they come here, since we were one of the “borderline teams” that made it into the playoffs and some of the NAU players and fans probably feel like we took their playoff spot.
The History
Not much history to speak of between our two teams. We’ve played Northern Arizona exactly once...out in Flagstaff...in 1967. We were classified as a “NCAA Small College” division school and NAU was a member of the NAIA at the time, although they’d join the NCAA Small College division two years later. The game was a 34-0 win for the Lumberjacks.
Against the Big Sky Conference as a whole, we have an 11-7 record overall, and 9-4 since the I-A/I-AA split.
Team Stat Analysis
Like the EIU game, not a lot to go on with only one game played for each of us and against vastly different opponents. Despite the fact that we played a roughly “equivalent” FCS team in Eastern Illinois and NAU played a significantly “superior” FBS team in Arizona State, they still put up some pretty big numbers in their first game. After one week, NAU is 6th overall in the FCS in passing offense, although only 90th in rushing offense. Their passing defense currently ranks 37th in the FCS and rushing defense is 91st. They have also not lost any turnovers so far this season.
NAU put up 425 total yards against Arizona State, controlled time of possession (33:34 vs 26:26) and kept the score pretty close for most of the game (down by 4 in the 3rd quarter, down by 13 almost halfway through the 4th).
Comparing stats from last year (full stat comparison here) shows that, in general NAU had a much better offense than we did, but we had a much better defense. If I had to guess, we’ll probably see something similar this weekend.
In terms of production lost vs last year (from graduation or whatever), NAU lost 57% of their RB production and 44% of their WR production (only 7% of their QB production...their #1 QB is the same as last year). Defensively, they lost 20% of the D-Line, 36% of their LB production, and 56% of their DBs. Compared to us, they lost less off the D-Line, but more from their LBs and DBs.
Key Opposition Players
QB Case Cookus - Last year’s FCS Freshman Player of the Year (and 5th overall in FCS Offensive POY voting), Cookus put up 3,117 passing yards (283.36 per game), 37 passing TDs (#2 in the FCS), a 69% completion rate and only 5 INTs for an overall passing efficiency of 184.81 (#2 overall in the FCS)...all as a Freshman. In their one game this year (remember, against a Pac 12 opponent), he put up 369 yards (23 completions on 33 attempts), 1 TD and 0 INTs for a passing efficiency of 173.62
And you don’t have those kinds of passing numbers without quality targets...
WR Emmanuel Butler - preseason All-Big Sky Team WR, had 109.8 receiving ypg last year (4th in the FCS) and 15 receiving TDs (tied for 2nd in the FCS). Butler had 118 receiving yards (16.9 ypc) in their first game this year.
WR Elijah Marks - no huge numbers last year, but in the game at ASU he caught 8 passes for 174 yards (21.8 ypc average) including a long of 87 yards and 1 TD.
C Blake Porter and OT Jacob Julian - both Preseason Big Sky All-Conference selections and blocked for the above mentioned offensive weapons.
The Game
So, how do you stop Case Cookus and his passing attack? I think in our case, the key will be our D-linemen and LBs in and pressuring him. I’m hoping we’ll hear quite a few mentions of “Mercado”, “Brott”, or “Taylor” followed by “with the tackle/stop/sack/fumble recovery”. If we can get pressure on the QB and do well at forcing turnovers (something we’ve been good at for a while...18th in the FCS in turnover margin last year with +.62/game and we were +3 in the game at Eastern), then he’s going to have a hard time hooking up with his receivers. We’ve got some DB talent, but I just don’t trust them covering NAU’s WRs yet, not with Case’s ball placement abilities, so I’d like to see them not have to do so as much, by preventing the ball from getting there in the first place.
When we’re on offense, I’m not too worried considering what I saw last week out of our RBs. Last year NAU was 73rd overall (in the FCS) for rushing defense, 121st for passing defense, and 102nd for scoring defense. This year, it looks like it’ll probably be more of the same on the defensive side of the ball for the Lumberjacks. Comparing EIU and NAU last year, their rushing defense was pretty close to the same (70th vs 73rd in the FCS), so I think we’re looking at a pretty comparable ability to stop our running game (which I like, because Eastern had no answer for McShane).
I was (as most were, I think) pleasantly surprised by the special teams play at Eastern. Knuffman handled FG/XP and punting duties (Otto handled kickoff duties) and performed well, hitting all 5 XPs, a 43-yard FG, and 8 punts for 322 yards (40.3 average)....not Scifres-level punting, but definitely manageable. No blocked kicks so far (and it didn’t look like they were getting close to blocking most of the time), so it seems like the blocking team is doing a better job this year so far, which seems promising. NAU didn’t allow any blocked kicks or punts last year, but neither did they block any kicks or punts. So, hopefully it’s a relatively “clean” game in that aspect.
My big questions marks for us at this point are:
- Giving up the long plays - we’ve been vulnerable to long pass plays, with EIU scoring on 53 yard and 79 yard passes, and NAU’s QB/WRs combo is a lot better than Eastern’s. Can we put enough pressure on the QB to throw off his game?
- Connecting on our own passing - I didn’t really expect such a “meh” passing game going into the season. Thankfully McShane was able to have such a standout performance and help make up for those deficiencies, but we can’t always count on having a RB go for 200+ yards and 2 TDs every game...I’d like to, but that’s rather unrealistic. I’m hoping that the issues with the passing game were just a bit of “first-game jitters”/”knocking the rust off” and that things will get significantly better in the 9 days between the EIU game and the NAU game.
Misc Stuff
I almost wish that the weather was going to be hot and humid (more like today...it’s 88 with 63% humidity right now...a dew point of 74 and 97 degree heat index) because I know that’s not what NAU would be used to. Flagstaff sits at about 7,000 feet above sea level and for this last August, had a high of 84 degrees (average high of 75) with a max dew point of 63 (average dew point of 49)...and they play in a dome (although I’m sure they practice outside somewhat). The more humid it feels, the rougher it would likely be on them.
We’re down to 4 players left who came through our Arizona recruiting connection that we had with the previous coaching regime. Since a lot of the NAU players are from AZ (duh), it’s possible there could be some connection between some of their players and ours. I don’t know for sure if players know each other personally...although I’d imagine that at least a few do. Here’s what I found:
WIU Junior DB Aaron Diggs is from Goodyear, AZ (Millennium HS)
NAU R-Freshman S Jalen Cook (who was actually born in Homewood, IL) is also from Goodyear, AZ and went to Millennium HS. Looks like they would have been a year apart in HS, so it’s likely they would have played on the same defense in HS during Diggs’s Senior/Cook’s Junior year (2013). They also both played baseball in HS.
NAU Junior WR Elijah Marks is also from Goodyear, AZ, but went to Desert Edge HS
WIU Senior O-Lineman Nick Ziegenbein is from Phoenix, AZ (Pinnacle HS) and played his first two collegiate years (‘12 and ‘13) at Glendale CC (I assume Glendale, AZ...there is a Glendale CC in California with a football team also, but I’m pretty sure it’s the AZ one).
WIU Junior LB Justin Corbett is from Tinley Park, IL (Lincoln-Way East HS) but played at Glendale CC for the 2014 season.
NAU Sophomore WR Dan Galindo is also from Phoenix, AZ (Pinnacle HS). He graduated HS in 2014, so I believe he would have been a HS sophomore during Ziegenbein’s HS senior year.
NAU Freshman FB Justin Mandrola is also from Phoenix, AZ (Pinnacle HS) but graduated in 2016, so it’s unlikely that he would have known Ziegenbein personally.
NAU Senior S LeAndre Vaughn played at Glendale CC in ‘13 and ‘14, so would have been on the same team with Nick in 2013 and Justin in 2014.
NAU Junior LB Byron Evans played at Glendale CC in ‘14 and ‘14, so would have been on the same team with Justin in 2014.
WIU Junior DB Myles Spearman is from Surprise, AZ (Valley Vista HS). As near as I can tell, there aren’t any players on NAU’s team from Surprise, AZ, although it’s possible he would have played games against some of them occasionally.
WIU Junior DB Alex Olivas is from Upland, CA but went to Chaffey College for two years before coming here (‘14-’15).
NAU Senior DL Andrew Robateau is from Moreno Valley, CA but also went to Chaffey College for two years before heading to AZ (‘12-’13)...so, close but no overlap. Probably same coaches and know some of the same people though.
And one more interesting connection...RB Jabril Taylor….here’s his story:
- Born in Chicago, IL
- At some point, moved to Buckeye, AZ
- Played HS football at Buckeye (AZ) Union HS
- Was part of our 2013 recruiting class (possibly a walk-on, not listed on our signing day press release), redshirted in 2013, and was named to the 2013/14 MVFC Academic Honor Roll.
- Possibly realized that he wouldn’t get a lot of playing time behind J.C. Baker, Nikko Watson, Devon Sanders, Devon Moore, etc., could have been homesick, could have just decided he didn’t really want to be here...don’t know the reason for sure, but…
- Transferred to Eastern Arizona College where he played during the 2015 season (R-Fr year)
- Transferred to Northern Arizona for the 2014 season (Soph year, no playing time as near as I can tell)
- Is currently a Junior RB for NAU and is listed as participating (although no actual carries) in their game against ASU last weekend.
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
Here is to a great game between two solid fan bases. I'm also the radio halftime show host, but I'm staying home for this one. All the best this Saturday and here's to an injury-free game. 
