WIU vs Bye Week (9/17/2016)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

That's right folks, it's that time again. It's that weekend of the year where our offense allows no sacks or interceptions, our defense gives up no points, and our team can't lose. It means some extra time to rest for players who are beat up or injured and some extra time for everyone to practice and get better.

In the past during the bye week, I've kinda gone through where we are at for the season as a team and our top individual performers. I kinda seems silly to do that at this point though, since the bye week is so early this season (probably my only complaint about this season at this point). Obviously we've gotten off to a great start, going 2-0 against quality opponents and for the most part, starting a little slow, but eventually pulling ahead and going past them by a few scores. The teams we've played would probably be somewhere in the lower-middle of the MVFC if they played in our conference, so those outcomes seem about right based on where I had hoped we would be at this point.

With the next game essentially "playing with house money", I feel like our non-conference season has already met my optimistic expectations. If we pull off a win against Northern though....damn...we're in serious business then. According to Massey's estimates (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8754&s=286577) we're currently at about a 41% chance of beating NIU. Honestly, that's about the highest I think I've EVER seen an FCS/FBS game posted at. If NIU gets blown out this weekend against a very good San Diego State team (a distinct possibility), we could see it hit roughly 50/50 odds of us coming away with a victory.

Even though we've only played two games, I will do a quick rundown of a few of the key players and their current stats. I will preface this by saying that it all should be taken with a fairly large grain of salt, since two games against non-conference opponents doesn't give us a great indication of how we'll perform when it comes to conference time...maybe the MVFC defenses will figure out how to stop some of our weapons...maybe a team or two have serious offensive threats that we have no answer for...whatever, you get the idea.

RB Steve McShane - averaging 181 yards per game, 2 TDs per game, and has a long of 70. He's is currently #1 in the FCS for rushing yards, although it's likely that will change next week when we don't play. Just for comparison...the best RB that Western has ever had...Aaron Stecker...in his best season ('97)...averaged 176.39 yards per game. Do I think that McShane will keep up the pace and break Stecker's record?....probably not, but he's got a serious shot to be well into the top 10 with names like Herb Donaldson and Charles Tharp

WR Lance Lenior - averaging 123 yards per game, although as we know, nearly all of that was in this most recent game. He has 1 receiving TD. With that TD, Lenoir now has the sole #1 position for receiving TDs in a career, surpassing Lito Senatus. To be fair, Senatus did only play 34 games (3 seasons), while Lenoir currently has 39 games, but still...very impressive. I won't go through and list most of the other #1 rankings for Lenior, but the ones that still stand out to me are having the #1 and #2 spots for receptions in a season, and the #1 and #6 spots for receiving yards in a season, since those are more limited in scope. Lenior has an advantage on the career records over many receivers, due to the fact that he's started since he was a freshman. Doesn't change the fact that he's right at the top of the list of best WRs in Western history. He is still #2 on the list for career yards per game (a stat where more games doesn't necessarily help you).

QB Sean McGuire - doing a bit of everything...throwing all those passes to Lenior and friends, scrambling when he needs to (including for a TD). Overall his percentage and efficiency are decent...nothing huge...but obviously enough to get things done with the rest of this offense (with McShane, he doesn't have to rely on the pass too much). And it feels like he's only getting better. I don't know where his "peak" is, but I'd really hate to be our opponent that day.

LB Brett Taylor - leads the way defensively with 23 total tackles so far, 2 sacks and an interception
DB Xavier Rowe - has stepped up nicely and is second on the team currently with 21 total tackles and 1 tackle for a loss

There's obviously more names and playmakers on this team that I didn't mention, but....it's late, I gotta sleep, and I've got time to go through and post more throughout the week...cause ya know we don't got an opponent to talk about right now.
So, based on the performances so far, does anyone want to update any predictions or thoughts that they had at the start of the season?
I've got some, but I'll wait to post them until a few others have chimed in.

Anyway...

[sealhall74]

Yes, we need to take everything with a grain of salt but I have seen enough so far to have me tickled pink. First, the defense. We bend but don't break very much. We seem to make quick adjustments during the course of the game to stop the bleeding. Our blitz calls appear to be well-timed and actually come as a surprise to the opponent leading to sacks or hurried passes. On the offense side of the ball, I think that the current pro-style scheme is a much better match for our talent on board and the proof is in the pudding. We blend the pass and runs very and have thrown in a few new looks (but not many YET) of various two back formations (Power I, etc.). I think that Charlie and Doug will pull a lot more out of their bag of tricks as the season moves forward. Last year, the play calls were overly-simplistic and much too predictable, almost elementary for our dear Watson [Nikko]. But in Nielson's defense, he really did not have the QB he needed for his system. This year, it looks like he does as the QB is currently leading the team in rushing. As for special teams, what can I say, night and day difference from last year. Fundamentally safe and sound and a total breath of fresh air. Kudos to the current staff for putting some much needed emphasis on this meat and potatoes part of the game as the previous staff treated it more like a two bit appetizer.

That's all folks. I have used up my quota of really bad cliches for one day.

Oops, forgot my score prediction

WIU 226
Bye 0

WIU will overtake Georgia Tech as the winner of the most-lopsided game in history (Georgia Tech 222 vs Cumberland 0 in 1916)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Cumb ... tball_game

[letsgonecks]

I too don't care for the early bye week, but works well for us to start the season. Plenty of time to prepare for a good EIU team to start the year, 10 days to rest and prepare for a good NAU team, and then 13 days to rest and prepare for our FBS match-up. NIU is playing poorly and lost Hare again last week, but this will still be a really tough game. Winnable though and a good chance to start 3-0. It would be nice to have a break during the tough MVFC schedule, but 3-0 would be well worth it.

McShane is Stecker like out there. It's only 2 games, but the line looks solid run blocking and he vision/speed combo has been top notch. Same style Stecker used to carve up the Gateway for 2 years.

Again, the O-line has been great, but the D-line has been pretty good also. Saunders, Mercado and Veloz all move very well for their size and continue to make plays. Think they'll do great things this year and out perform the guys from last year.

Moon has been great this year. Like that they move him around a bit to make plays. If not for the Hugeness himself Brett Taylor, Moon could potentially be our star on D. Again, early but you can tell he's talented.

Finally, as others have stated the special teams have been awesome. If they continue to execute, they'll be the difference from a potential playoff team to a potential conference champ playoff team. Poor performance and execution put the last 2 years teams in bad situation and cost us games. Hats off to the staff for implementing schemes that work.

Thanks to Bob for building this team, but looking like we found a coach and staff that can better utilize them.

[huskie]

Thanks to Bob for building this team, but looking like we found a coach and staff that can better utilize them.

Letsgoneck, I think you hit the nail on the head. We're way better off with Coach Fisher and his staff.

[letsgonecks]

Though a slow start for Borsellino, he's now tied with Lito for 3rd all time in receptions. Needs 4 to tie and 5 to pass Gray for 2nd place. He's also moved into 6th all time in yards, passing Steve Williams. Next up Crump for 5th and needing 168 yards.

Crazy that Norvell is 10 Td's and 1117 yards away from sole possession of 1st for those two categories and won't likely have a chance to get near them. Knocking on wood and crossing fingers Sean stays healthy all year, but maybe a few early blowouts to get Trent a few more stats. Looking tougher with even MSU seeming to be a much better team through 2 weeks.

Wish I could go to sleep and wake up the 24th, drive to Dekalb, tailgate, and watch the Leathernecks take the W.

[ST_Lawson]

Crazy that Norvell is 10 Td's and 1117 yards away from sole possession of 1st for those two categories and won't likely have a chance to get near them. Knocking on wood and crossing fingers Sean stays healthy all year, but maybe a few early blowouts to get Trent a few more stats. Looking tougher with even MSU seeming to be a much better team through 2 weeks.

If anything, that might be my one regret this season. Norvell has stuck with this team through some tough times (and enjoyed some of the good times). He's pretty high up on a lot of the lists, but in most of them (Career yards, completions, attempts, and TDs)...he's #2. He's still a pretty darn good QB and would be the starter on the vast majority of FCS teams...but unfortunately for him...McGuire is better. Still, if he never plays another down for us, he will still own one #1 record which is pretty darn impressive...yards per game...he's the only Western QB to average 200+ yards per game (he's at 216.4) throughout his entire career (Sam Clemons is #2 at 195.2).

I think what I've done to reconcile it in my head is that I remember that most decent starting QBs get to start 2-3 seasons...usually Jr/Sr or So/Jr/Sr. Norvell had 3 great seasons...they just happened to be Fr/So/Jr.

But, this is why I'm just a very passionate fan, and Charlie Fisher is the coach. He does seem to be a very "emotional" coach...getting the team fired up and motivated...but also very good at approaching much of the game from a "logical" perspective. Norvell is great, but McGuire puts us in the best position to win, both today, and for the next two years down the road, and getting the team to win games is one of the top priorities of a football coach (as well as teaching young men how to be great leaders and great people). "McGuire to Lesure" is something that I think we'll be hearing as much of over the next two years as we were used to hearing "Norvell to Lenoir" over the previous few years.

It would have been nice to see Norvell get a bunch of those #1 records, but I just have to be happy with the fact that we have the best QB on our roster in the starting position...he'll likely be the starter for the next two seasons as well...and for this season, we have a backup QB that has a ton of experience and that most FCS teams would kill for.

[rocki]

I'm not sure I can come up with anyone else making big plays besides the ones Scott mentioned.

With that said, I'm very pleased with how we hear several names on defensive stops - seems that the guys subbing in are catching on quickly and getting their jobs done as well.

I'm kind of anxious to see what more we have offensively. For some reason, I get the feeling that we only bring out so much each game, and that there are more good surprises down the line. McShane is doing extremely well, but I know we have other good RBs, too, and am expecting to see them get more carries as the season progresses. Hope things start syncing up better for Borsellino, too. Would like to see him climb higher on the all-time lists.

For too many seasons we just saw Joey and Lance....and while they are excellent, it limited us. Same with Nikko and to a certain extent JC. We didn't seem to have much game other than those guys. Really happy to see things opening up - it can only improve things for us, having more targets that the other defenses have to spread their guys around on.

VERY happy with the coaching change. Coach Fisher seems to be able to relate to this team and motivate them very well. It just shows in their play.

[ST_Lawson]

I'm not sure I can come up with anyone else making big plays besides the ones Scott mentioned.

With that said, I'm very pleased with how we hear several names on defensive stops - seems that the guys subbing in are catching on quickly and getting their jobs done as well.

I'm kind of anxious to see what more we have offensively. For some reason, I get the feeling that we only bring out so much each game, and that there are more good surprises down the line. McShane is doing extremely well, but I know we have other good RBs, too, and am expecting to see them get more carries as the season progresses. Hope things start syncing up better for Borsellino, too. Would like to see him climb higher on the all-time lists.

For too many seasons we just saw Joey and Lance....and while they are excellent, it limited us. Same with Nikko and to a certain extent JC. We didn't seem to have much game other than those guys. Really happy to see things opening up - it can only improve things for us, having more targets that the other defenses have to spread their guys around on.

VERY happy with the coaching change. Coach Fisher seems to be able to relate to this team and motivate them very well. It just shows in their play.

I definitely agree on all those points. I noticed that in a few situations where we needed a bit of a "heavier" back to just push the pile a couple of yards, they'd take McShane out for a bit of a rest and put in Devon Moore. He's not doing crazy numbers (51 yards and 1 TD on 12 carries), but getting us yards when we need them. I remember one specific instance last Saturday, we were about midfield, maybe 4th quarter...I know it was getting later in the game, where 1st downs are really important to help run time off the clock...3rd and short (1 or 2 maybe). Sean hands the ball off to Moore, the whole pile of everyone kinda just turns into a mob, but then the mob slowly creeps forward like 3 yards and then collapses. That tells me that Moore can keep his feet under him when he's got a lot of guys there, and he can give extra weight to the pile to keep it moving forwards.

I've started hearing some of the TE names a bit more now too. Joe Turk has a couple of catches, Tyler Slamans and Tony Harper each have a catch (Harper's was for a TD). Short yardage (longest was Slamans's at 7 yards), but like Moore....crucial yards when we need them. Having players like this gives us options when we're playing a really good defense that might be all keyed into Lenoir, Borsellino, and McShane. "You got those three all covered....fine...here's a 8 yards pass to Joe Turk and then a 3 yard run by Devon Moore...we'll get the first downs any way it takes".

Something else I notice about Lesure was that....holy crap can that guy get air. If you haven't had a chance, go watch the highlight video from the NAU game: (go ahead...I'll wait)........
.....
.....
Ok, done?
Now go back and check out the trick play at 1:06 in the video...McGuire takes the snap, hands it off to a RB (can't tell who...probably McShane judging by his size), who then tosses it to Leshure going the other way, but then while running around the edge, gets WAY up in the air to hurdle the defender. Usually you see guys try to do that and they don't go high enough, the defender gets their legs and they still go down there, but he got a good foot over the defender and instead of going down around the 25 yard line, was able to pick up a couple more before getting knocked out of bounds.
And then, go check out his TD reception starting at 1:16....great throw by McGuire, great catch by Lesure (is he going by "Zeke" now?...he's listed as Isaiah, but everyone was calling him Zeke)...but the biggest thing for me was at about 1:24 when he goes up to "celebrate" with Lenoir....look at how much higher up in the air he is than Lenoir. His vertical leap and timing for getting up there is just incredible. He did it another time during the game when he caught a pass right around midfield. He did that same thing, jumped way up there and caught the ball. The thing was, he was able to catch it right in his midsection, even though it was up in the air...he was like 3 feet off the ground, which means that when the defender was planning on just trying to smack the ball out of his hands before he secured it, Lesure was completely out of his reach when he got it. Honestly it seems like if Lesure has a second to know where he needs to plant his feet and stuff, it's like he's a 7' 6" WR.

Like letsgonecks mentioned too, there's been a lot of "newer" names mentioned out of the defensive line. Lots of new guys stepping up, which we needed after losing a large % of our D-line from last year.

Anyway, those are just a few examples of what I've seen so far out of the guys.

[letsgonecks]

Zeke also had nice hops in week one with the missed call in the endzone. Got way up and got his feet down right in front of the official. At least we ended up scoring and got a TE a TD.

Last week we had another true Freshman make an appearance in DE Eryk Preston from Harvey, IL. 3 total so far joining Viti and Wheeler.

Cunningham is on the 2 deep at tackle, but yet to get in a game as far as I can tell.

[ST_Lawson]

Article about the defense from the Scott Holland of the McDonough County Voice: http://www.mcdonoughvoice.com/sports/20 ... ing-impact

I hadn't mentioned this earlier, but the article mentioned it and reminded me. The first two scores that NAU went up with to get the early lead weren't your "typical" TD reception plays.
The first one, the ball essentially when through the receivers hands, but in the process was tipped up and went into another receiver's hands. He happened to be uncovered and practically walked into the end zone.
The second one was a "trick" play...high risk, high reward. Cookus made a lateral pass to a WR, who then passed for a TD to wide open WR Emmanuel Butler.

None of this discounts the fact that NAU really moved the ball well in the first quarter to be in a position to make those plays, but still, the first one was just one of those "rather be lucky than good" situations...not that NAU isn't good, because NAU is really good...but just that in that situation, they were good AND lucky. That ball just tips down to the ground and it's an incomplete pass. Maybe we still give up a TD, or maybe we hold them to a FG (or less)...who knows. Or, if it tips in another direction...we had two defenders right there...could have easily had been a turnover.

So, I know that in terms of the scoreboard, stats, etc., that TD counts, but in my mind hesitate to actually count it against our defense in terms of actual skill because it was more of a "fluke" play.