10/28/23 - vs Southern Illinois (Hall of Fame Weekend)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Western Illinois (0-7) @ Southern Illinois Salukis (5-2)
Date: 10/28/2023
Kickoff: 3:00 PM (Central)
Location: Hanson Field, Macomb, IL
Media: ESPN+, Q98.1 FM
Game Notes: Western Illinois | Southern Illinois

SIU's Record and Stats
The Salukis are currently 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the MVFC. They started off the season with 4 straight wins over Austin Peay (49-23), at FBS Northern Illinois (14-11), at then #13 SEMO (26-25), and against Missouri State (33-20). They picked up their first loss against Youngstown State, 31-3 but then beat MVFC newcomer Murray State, 27-6. Last weekend, they hosted #1 South Dakota State for SIU's homecoming, where they fell 17-10 to the defending FCS champions. Last year, SIU finished 5-6 overall, including a 30-7 win over the Leathernecks. WIU and SIU have faced off 67 times starting back in 1933, with WIU holding the series lead 37-26-4. For 18 years (from 1984-2001), WIU won every game, but since then, it's leaned much more towards SIU, with them winning the last 3 matchups.

Senior QB Nic Baker currently has a rating of 140.55 with 141 completions on 207 attempts for 1566 yards (223 per game) with 8 TDs and 4 INTS. He's currently 2nd in the conference in passing yards. Sophomore WR Vinson Davis III leads the team in receiving yards with 405 (57.86/game) and 1 TD while Junior WR Izaiah Hartrup has picked up the most receiving TDs (3) as well as 352 yards.
The ground game is (was?) led by Senior RB Ro Elliott with 275 yards and 5 TDs, but hasn't played the last 3 games (sounds like the injury wasn't too serious though and he might be back this weekend). In the meantime Senior RB Justin Strong has been picking up more of the duties, with 128 yards and a TD against Murray State (has a total of 219 yards and 3 TDs for the season).
On the defensive side, Senior Safety PJ Jules leads the team in tackles with 64 (32 solo), tackles for loss (9.5) where he's #2 in the MVFC, and is tied for pass breakups. Senior DE Devin Cowan has 3.5 sacks with 2 forced fumbles, which is tied for the lead in the conference. Their FG kicker is Senior Thomas Burks, who is 6 of 7 on the season, hitting everything under 40 yards, but is 0-1 in the 40-49 yard range. Sophomore Punter Nathan Torney has 32 punts for 38.5 yards per punt with a long of 64 and 6 inside the 20.

View the full stat comparison between the two teams.

Chance of Victory
Massey says 3% chance of a WIU victory, with a predicted score of 37-13 for the Salukis: https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288225
Sagarin says 4% chance of a win.
Our best chance of a win the rest of the season is still Indiana State, who is also 0-7, including a 27-0 loss to EIU, a 2-point loss to fellow MVFC "cellar dweller" Murray State, and a 44-7 crushing by the other ISU a couple of weeks ago.
 

[Rocky Swishterson]

Is there any way to just skip this one? I mean, where is the bottom?

[ST_Lawson]

Is there any way to just skip this one? I mean, where is the bottom?

 

We're pretty close, although the record for losses in a row is 80 games (Prairie View A&M from 1991 to 1997), so that's currently the true "rock bottom".

[sealhall74]

Is there any way to just skip this one? I mean, where is the bottom?


 

We're pretty close, although the record for losses in a row is 80 games (Prairie View A&M from 1991 to 1997), so that's currently the true "rock bottom".

 

Sometimes in life you have to hit rock bottom to realize that better days lie ahead.

https://pvpanthers.com/sports/2016/9/13 ... adium.aspx
 

[wiu712]

If you are looking for something to eat before Saturday's game, go to the AGR's 31st Annual Smokin' Hog !!

The Alpha Tau Chapter of the Alpha Gamma Rho (AGR) Fraternity will be hosting our 31st Annual Smokin' Hog Philanthropy on Saturday October 28th, 2023. Smokin' Hog is a hog roast that raises money, and then distributes it back to organizations in the community that could benefit from monetary donations.

This is the 31st Anniversary of Western Illinois University AGR's Smokin' Hog, one of the largest philanthropic events on Western's campus. Last year Alpha Gamma Rho was able to donate around $30,000 to multiple organizations after the event.

This year's event will kick-off with lunch from 11:00am to 2:00pm. We will then start serving dinner from 4:00pm to 6:30pm. Throughout the event we will be selling 31st Anniversary Smokin' Hog t-shirts, koozies, and concert tickets for the concert that evening.

Alpha Gamma Rho will continue to provide a drive-thru style meal pick-up option along with the traditional dining inside the house. The drive-thru, and traditional dining will take place at the AGR house, 1010 North Lafayette Street in Macomb. We will continue to make sure that proper precautions are in place to be able to serve the Macomb and surrounding communities with proper care.

Tickets for the family friendly event can be purchased for $8 before the event, or $10 the day of the 28th, from any Alpha Gamma Rho Fraternity member as well the link which can be found on the @AlphaGammaRhoWIU Facebook page.

 
 

[sealhall74]

Trying something a little different this week.  Instead of using all FCS games over the last couple of years to train the neural network, I am using just games involving head to head past matchups of the MVFC teams to train the network.  I also paired down a few stats that to me seemed superfluous (e.g. why do we need three separate NCAA stats for turnovers when the turnover margin sums it up using turnovers gained and turnovers lost?).  With the changes, I was  hitting about 95% of winners along with a very low score differential (~ 5 points) for the games during training trials.  After said training, here is the predictions for the MVFC games this week.

These seem very reasonable to me.  That game in Vermillion could be interesting to watch.

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Southern Ill.', score: 30.768 },
  team2: { id: 'Western Ill.', score: 3.464 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Missouri St.', score: 11.74 },
  team2: { id: 'Youngstown St.', score: 27.873 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Murray St.', score: 10.638 },
  team2: { id: 'North Dakota St.', score: 52.977 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'Indiana St.', score: 25.218 },
  team2: { id: 'North Dakota', score: 42.358 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'South Dakota St.', score: 24.033 },
  team2: { id: 'South Dakota', score: 19.831 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}

{
  Game: 'Matchup',
  team1: { id: 'UNI', score: 28.328 },
  team2: { id: 'Illinois St.', score: 10.344 },
  Note: 'Team 1 assumed to be visitor team'
}
 
 

[wiu712]

WGEM Prediction:  #12 Southern Illinois 43,  Western Illinois 10
 
 

[ST_Lawson]

20 minutes until kickoff and there’s maybe 50-60 WIU fans on the west side.


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[sealhall74]

Our OLine has zero ability to hold a block.  Radio broadcast having technical difficulties.  Marqee had problems in Normal.  Must be something going around.  
 

[dogwhisper]

Our OLine has zero ability to hold a block.  Radio broadcast having technical difficulties.  Marqee had problems in Normal.  Must be something going around.  
 

 

Forced multiple punts, made some progress today!