Massey Ratings & Score Projections - 10/12/2015

[ST_Lawson]

Thought I'd break out the Massey Ratings into a separate thread rather than try to include it each week in the game thread.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)

Future Games:
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (last week 24%), projected score 27-17
@ Illinois State, 19% chance, projected score 34-21
vs Youngstown State, 51% chance (49%), projected score 28-27
at North Dakota St., 11% chance (10%), projected score 35-17
at Indiana State, 51% chance (47%), projected score 28-27
vs South Dakota St. 42% chance (43%), projected score 30-27

For the most part, after putting up 37 and 40 against conference teams, the rankings have started to bump up our projected points, giving us a slightly better chance in most games. Still, going off of the percentages, we're projected to win 2 more games this season, which would put us at 5-6 (4-4 in the conference).