Massey Ratings & Score Projections - 10/19/2015

[ST_Lawson]

Here's the updated Massey Ratings and Score Projections. For future games, I've included (in parentheses) the % chance from last week, to show increase/decrease in winning chance over the previous week.

Previous Games:
vs Eastern IL, 76% chance of winning - we won 33-5
@ Illinois, 24% chance - we lost 44-0
@ Coastal Carolina, 34% chance (projected 32-26, 6pt spread) - we lost 34-27 (7pt spread)
vs Southern IL, 55% chance (projected 27-24, 3pt spread) - we won 37-36 (1pt spread)
vs South Dakota, 85% chance (projected 28-13, 15pt spread) - we won 40-21 (19pt spread)
@ Northern Iowa, 23% chance (projected 27-17, 10pt spread) - we won 24-19 (5pt spread the other direction)

Future Games:
@ Illinois State, 29% (up from 19%), projected score 31-24
vs Youngstown State, 59% chance (up from 51%), projected score 27-24
at North Dakota St., 25% chance (up from 11%), projected score 30-21
at Indiana State, 60% chance (up from 51%), projected score 29-26
vs South Dakota St. 39% chance (down from 42%), projected score 28-24

Of course, numbers mean nothing once the teams step on the field (just look at USD at NDSU and us at UNI this last weekend), but according to the projections, we should win 2 more games this season, finishing 5-3 in the conference, 6-5 overall. Still, this rating system only gave us a 23% chance of winning at UNI, and it currently lists us as having a better chance than that to win any of the games from here on out. The team keeps playing like they played at UNI, and I think we'll be in a good spot.