WIU vs South Dakota State (11/21/2015)

[ST_Lawson]

VS

Date/Time: 11/21 at 1 PM
Weather Forecast: 31 and partly cloudy w/ ~20 mph NW wind, chance of snow in the morning, total accumulation of ~1" (as of 11/19).
TV: Game will be on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Opponent's Message Board Game Discussion

SDSU's Record:
SDSU is 8-2 overall, 5-2 in the conference. They have wins over FBS B12 Kansas (41-38), Southern Utah (55-10), Robert Morris University (34-10), Indiana State (24-7), Youngstown State (38-8), Missouri State (39-0), Illinois State (25-20), and South Dakota (30-23). Losses against North Dakota State (28-7) and Northern Iowa (10-7). Following this game, SDSU will be in the playoffs (results of this game will likely have bearing on if they are seeded or not).

The History:
Western has played SDSU 12 times going back to 1976, with an overall 4-8 record against the Jackrabbits. Western was 2-1 against SDSU from '76-'80 when both schools were Div. II. Western won again in '81 when WIU had just moved up to Div. I. The two teams started playing again in 2007, when SDSU was a Div. I transitional school (played all Div. I schedule, ineligible for postseason play), where Western won after 4 OTs to kick off the 2007 season. SDSU joined the MVFC in 2008, playing Western every year since then. Western has not won against SDSU in the last 7 meetings.

Key Players:
SDSU has...well...not exactly a full-blown QB controversy, but they have two QBs that they'll start and play depending on what they need at the time.
Zach Lujan (throwing QB) - 8 games played, 201.9 passing yards per game, 13 TDs, 156.2 passing efficiency
Taryn Christion (running QB) - 6 games played, 176 passing yards per game, 6 TDs, 147.0 passing efficiency, but also 48 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs
WR Jake Wieneke - 122.6 receiving yards per game, 10 TDs, 21.5 yards per catch average. In-conference, Wieneke is #2 for yards/game behind ISUr's Anthony Warrum and just ahead of #3 Lance Lenoir.
RB Brady Mengarelli - 55.1 yards per game, 5 TDs, 5.2 yards per run average
RB Kyle Paris - 33.1 yards per game, 5 TDs, 3.6 yards per run average
LB Jesse Bobbit - 82 tackles (32 solo), 6.5 for loss, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery
LB T.J. Lally - 71 tackles (30 solo), 4 for loss
DB Nick Farina - 46 tackles (27 solo), 2 for loss, 2 INTs, last week's MVFC defensive player of the week (10 tackles, 43-yard pick-6, and 1 pass breakup last week)

Stat Analysis:
Full Stat Comparison
SDSU is the best in the FCS for fumbles lost (0), WIU is best in the conference (33rd overall in FCS) for fumbles recovered with 9
SDSU is 6th in FCS for passing yards per completion with 15.33
WIU is 5th in FCS for red zone offense, scoring 90% of the time

SDSU is obviously a great team. They gave Illinois State their only FCS loss of the season and took down Kansas. They usually have a very high scoring offense built around their stellar WR Jake Wieneke. Massey gives us a 33% chance of winning this game. I think that weather might play a big part in this game...they have a very strong passing attack. If it's snowy/windy or otherwise nasty out, that might help shut down their passing game forcing them to rely on the run. If it turns into a running game, I think we have the advantage with Nikko Watson and conference co-newcomer of the week (EDIT: And STATS Freshman of the Week), Sean McGuire at QB, who seems be a bit stronger on the run than Norvell is (although has shown that he can pass when he needs to...78 yard TD to Borsellino, for example). SDSU's two losses were at home (outside) in windier-than-usual conditions, where each time they were held to just 1 passing TD (and no rushing TD). In each game they were held to less than 50 yards receiving and less than 15 yards rushing. I have confidence that we'll be able to stop the run, but we've struggled with defending good WRs and getting burned on big passes. If the weather is nice, low wind, no snow or rain, I think that SDSU has the advantage, and we'll likely see Wieneke go all "Warrum" on us (Warrum is ISUr's WR who burned us for 170 yards and 2 TDs on just 4 catches). A win would get us to 6-5, overall...our first winning record since 2010. A loss, and we're at 5-6 to end the season.

[BobLovely]

Excellent write-up Scott! I saw South Dakota State beat Kansas early in the season and they are a very good and well coached football team. Regardless, Western has a chance to win this game with excellent play. The talent level of these two teams is not that far apart. It is unfortunate that not many fans will be in attendance at this game in Macomb.

Prediction:

Western Illinois [thinkpurple]28[/thinkpurple] South Dakota State 27

Bob

[Neckfansince71]

Of course it is "water over the damn" but I would love to have the "Halloween" game back! Someone kept complaining about the football staff last week and was quick to point out that the difference maker, Watson, was not this coaching staffs recruit. Well I am pretty sure that Sean McGuire was the first quarterback they recruited as a high school senior. The fact that he could respond the way he did on Saturday says volumes as far as his ability and coach-ability. I was really not happy with the last throw he made before overtime but I am certainly over it after the holding call against Indst pushed them back from FG range. I have no idea what to expect Saturday, but I will say that it seems like McGuire with his arm and feet may be a bit tougher to read and defend. jc

[sealhall74]

When the crowd is sparse, you have to make it seem bigger. I know it probably wont happen, but I think a "Rocky's Rovers" group might be nice. The group stands (never sits) closely together on the east side and moves with the ball. Wear boots and stomp on those metal bleachers. Thanks to the Friday night faithful back in my little home town (Alexis) for teaching me the right way to watch a football game.

[Western_101]

Scott, it has come to the point that I am eagerly anticipating your weekly match up write ups. I feel like we have a good enough team to take down the Rabbits,*sigh* I was at that 4 game overtime win back in 2007. Thought I was going to have an anxiety attack. Since that time we have beat UNI and NDSU multiple times......one would think at some point the football Gods will once again smile in our direction with regards to the wascaly wabbits.

[JackJD]

Jackrabbit fans are excited about this team but we know the team is capable of having some terrible lapses leading to our two losses (NDSU was a terrible loss and we just played poorly -- a teaching moment, I suppose. UNI was a struggle and we just couldn't seem to get in sync...and neither could UNI). But overall, it's been a fun season for the Jacks and their fans. Most of the time the defense plays very well and lately the offensive line is reaching its potential. It should be a great battle in Macomb.

I was at that first game in 1976. That was the first time I focused on the unique name of your team. That was a physical group of Leathernecks!

Jackrabbit sports fans will have some distraction on Saturday. Our women's basketball team is very talented and we're hosting Notre Dame that afternoon. I'm not sure how I'll juggle the two games but I intend to be in Frost Arena watching the Jacks vs. Notre Dame, while also watching SDSU football at WIU on the WatchESPN phone app.

Best of luck to Coach Nielsen and his team, I hope both teams play well and there are no injuries!

[Lynx]

After finally watching the Indiana State game on ESPN last night I believe Sean McGuire is a better QB moving forward into next season. McGuire gives you the threat of the run which Norvell doesn't. Also McGuire seems to be yet mindful it's just one game, more poised throwing the football down field.

However the next years QB battle works out, WIU will be the winner with having to 2 quality kids in that position.

[letsgonecks]

We'll see how McGuire comes out Saturday, but he certainly throws a good ball, can move much better and throws better on the move. Thought we got a steal when we signed him and like you said Lynx, should have a good battle next year and 2 good options.

Don't know if it was the play calling, but McGuire seemed to use the middle of the field more and that is something that has limited us. Maybe because he's more confident in his ability to more, but he seemed to let routes develop longer.

Think we'll see another solid passing game and run game. Liked the play calling and sets much better this last week. Need a few more big plays from the Defense again this week and we have a real chance. More of the same from Harley this week. Played his best game of the year and though his stats weren't crazy, he was very disruptive and a beast. Hope to get similar pressure this week as the blitzes were working, but if they don't Wieneke is going to have a huge game. Need whomever pulls his number at CB this week to have the game of their life.

WIU 27 - SDSU 21

[ST_Lawson]

Apparently Wieneke is nursing some type of muscle injury. Not sure how serious, and we'd still have to watch out for him...Wieneke at 80% is like most other teams top WRs at 110%.

[sealhall74]

33 degrees, snow and wind out of the northwest. If we were in a "win and in" situation, I would definitely be making the trek all the way from Virginia. It is the kind of game where you do your tailgating in the stands. A flask of this, a thermos of that, and you are good to go.