VS 
FCS Playoffs - Round 2
Date/Time: 12/5 at 1 PM Central
Weather Forecast: 47 degrees (high of 50) and clear w/ ~10 mph wind (as of 12/4). Almost no chance of rain (for Thursday, Friday, or Saturday).
TV: Game will be on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
Illinois State’s Record
You can check out their full schedule here, but since our game at ISU on October 24th (they were 6-1 at the time, with their only loss being against currently 12-0 Iowa), they are 3-1 with a win against Indiana State (27-24), a loss at South Dakota State (25-20), and wins at Southern Illinois (42-21), and back home against South Dakota (46-0). They had a first round playoff bye last weekend due to their #2 seed.
The History
Going from our first ever matchup with a team (Dayton) to our most-played rivalry and a rematch of a regular season game. With the second meeting this season, Western will be playing against the Redbirds for the 98th time. As mentioned in the game thread from the first time we met, this matchup has been played every year back to 1923 except for 1973 (when we were both Div. II Independent teams and apparently weren't able to figure out a way to get the game scheduled). Western holds the overall advantage, winning 50, losing 44, and 3 ties. We are 8-8 against ISU since 2000, although they currently hold a 5-game winning streak against us. This will be the first time we’ve ever played Illinois State in the postseason, and the second time we’ve had a playoff rematch against a fellow Gateway/MVFC team (the other was in 2002 against Western Kentucky).
Stat Analysis
Full Stat Comparison
Not too much has changed since our earlier matchup with ISU. The Redbirds are 5th in the FCS in penalties and 7th in turnovers lost...so they aren’t going to make many mistakes against us. They are also very efficient in their passing game, being 2nd in yards per completion and 13th in passing efficiency. Overall, their offense is very good, 19th in scoring, 15th in rushing, although only 82nd in passing offense. We’ll need to worry about stopping the now 2-time MVFC offensive player of the year, Marshaun Coprich, who ranks second in the FCS in rushing yards and in rushing TDs. QB Tre Roberson is still very much a dual-threat having rushed for 630 yards and 9 TDs in addition to the 1,723 passing yards and 15 passing TDs
Key Players
Kinda rehashing what we already know for the most part, but here’s the updated stats for ISU’s top players (full season stats):
QB Tre Roberson - 1723 yards (156.6 per game), 15 TDs, 6 INTs (152.13 efficiency) passing and 630 yards (57.3 per game, 6.3 per run) and 9 TDs rushing
RB Marshaun Coprich - 1720 yards (156.4 per game), 20 TDs rushing, also 139 yards receiving
WR Anthony Warrum - 1031 yards (93.7 per game), 13 TDs receiving
WR Christian Gibbs - 278 yards (34.8 per game), 2 TDs receiving
[st]S Alec Kocour - 78 tackles (29 solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, 3 INTs, 3 pass breakups[/st] - Kocour out with broken clavicle
DB Josh Burch - 26 tackles (20 solo), 2 INTs for 26 yards (including 1 pick-6) and 6 pass breakups
LB Pat Meehan - 86 tackles (36 solo), 2 tackles for loss, 1 INT and 1 forced fumble and fumble recovery
DL Dalton Keene - 51 tackles (23 solo), 10 for loss, 5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, 1 fumble recovery, 1 blocked kick, 1 safety
The Game
Rematch against one of the top teams in the country. They say that it’s hard to beat a team twice in the season (from what I’ve heard, in the history of the FCS, it’s right around 75% of the time that the team that won the first matchup loses the second one)...but this is going to be a really tough one to do that with. The crowd should be less of an issue than it was in the first meeting (attendance was 13,391); I’ve heard they’re expecting somewhere around 6k-7k this game. Massey gives us a 21% chance of winning, which is about what they gave us in the game at UNI and in the game at NDSU...I could see it going either of those two ways. I don’t think a blowout in our favor is likely but if things get out of hand fast (like at NDSU) it could turn into a pretty ugly game. However, last time around, we were up by a TD halfway through the 3rd quarter and after they’d gotten a few more big plays to take the lead, I think that if they hadn’t had that goofy fumble that bounced into the WR’s hands that he was able to walk in for the TD, we would have stopped them at the goal line and might have been able to come back. It’s going to take our best effort this time around...we go out sluggish like we did against Dayton and it could very quickly turn into an NDSU-like game.
That being said, if you'd told me after the NDSU game that we'd still be playing football a month later, I would have said that you need to take it to Colorado because what you have isn't legal for recreational use in Illinois yet. It's been a very up-and-down season so far, to be sure, but overall this team has exceeded my expectations from the beginning of the season, and I'm just going to enjoy it all the way to the end...whether that's this weekend, next, or in January in Frisco, TX. Also, just FYI, as of the win at Dayton, we will, for sure, end up with a winning record, no matter what happens from here on out. The worst we can do is finish 7-6.
Ticket information is here: http://goleathernecks.com/news/2015/11/ ... 50308.aspx and are $25 for regular general admission. The Alumni Office is also hosting a pregame social. You can register for that here: https://www.wiu.com/web-apps/Alumni/
Scott Lawson - Board Admin
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jc