2016 Leatherneck Football Preview - Quarterbacks

[ST_Lawson]

Preview

Just wanted to mention that starting today (and continuing Thursday every week until the start of the season) I will be doing a preview of our personnel at each position/group. I’m posting them on Thursdays because the first game this season is on Thursday, September 1st...also Thursdays work well for my schedule and getting things written up and posted. The full schedule will (barring interruption) be as follows:

6/23 - Quarterbacks
6/30 - Running Backs
7/7 - Wide Receivers
7/14 - Tight Ends
7/21 - Offensive Linemen
7/28 - Defensive Backs
8/4 - Linebackers
8/11 - Defensive Linemen/Ends
8/18 - Special Teams (kickers, punters, long snapper)
8/25 - Overall predictions

Technically Special Teams can also include all the defenders or return guys and blockers, but for the most part, those players are also backups (or in some cases, starters) at regular offensive or defensive positions, so I’ll generally mention that capability in their individual areas (like, I’ll talk about Stacey Smith or Lance Lenior returning kicks a little in their WR sections, for example).

Anyway, I did this a year or two ago, and people seemed to like it. Plus it helps pass the time through the slow part of summer until the season gets started.

If you’d rather see me group them differently or something, just let me know.

Anyway, up first are...

Quarterbacks

The QBs we currently have on the roster (or know are transferring in) are:
#14, Senior Trenton Norvell - 6’5”, 220 lbs - http://goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?r ... h=football
#19, Junior Craig Slowik - 6’4”, 205 lbs - http://goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?r ... h=football
#18, Sophomore Sean McGuire - 6’3”, 220 lbs - http://goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?r ... h=football
Redshirt Sophomore Cameron Birse - 6’2”, 218 lbs - http://www.astateredwolves.com/ViewArti ... =208812162
Freshman Connor Sampson - 6’3”, 196 lbs - http://goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?r ... h=football

Last season, we had two QBs get significant playing time, Trenton Norvell, who played in 9 games, and Sean McGuire, who was primarily used as a backup to Norvell and then when Norvell was out with appendicitis in the second half of the season, McGuire stepped into the starting roll. McGuire played in a total of 10 games last season, and was the starter for 4 of them (going 3-1)

Norvell’s stats last year - 2,110 yards and 13 TDs with 8 INTs. He averaged 234.44 yards per game and had an overall QB efficiency rating of 122.41 (similar to the NFL’s QB rating).

McGuire’s stats last year - 1,159 yards and 6 TDs with 6 INTs. He averaged 115.90 yards per game and had an overall QB efficiency rating of 120.35. However, those averages include the game against Illinois, where McGuire was put in essentially in “garbage time” when we were already down significantly. If you remove the U of I game, he averaged 284.5 yards per game.

Craig Slowik joined the program last year with three years of eligibility after transferring from Buffalo. Played in one game (vs Illinois State), but as near as I can tell, did not rack up any stats (none that are listed anyway).

CJ Weydeman joined the program as a QB walk-on last season and was redshirted. This year he has moved to the DB position, so I’ll mention him in the DB discussion as well.

Cameron Birse is transferring to Western this summer from Arkansas State. He’s a 6’2”, 218 lb Sophomore (redshirted year 1, redshirt freshman year two, will have 3 years of eligibility) originally from Danville, CA. With the Red Wolves, Birse played in one game in a “reserve” role at QB, so it's hard to say what impact he may have on the team at this point. We'll have to wait and see how he plays during the summer training camp to see where he falls on the depth chart.

Freshman Connor Sampson will likely be redshirted this year to give him time to learn and bulk up a bit in the weight room. He's got decent height, but is a bit light for a DI QB. Plus with the depth we have at QB currently, there's no reason to rush him into service at this point.

Redshirt Freshman Jack Beneventi has chosen to pursue opportunities elsewhere.

Despite the fact that Norvell has been the starter for 3 years, it sounds like, at this point at least, McGuire has beaten him out for the starting job. Obviously things could change during the summer practices, but at this point, it looks like McGuire is getting the starting nod to begin with.

So, I see the depth chart at QB looking something like this most likely:
1 - McGuire
2 - Norvell
3 - Birse/Slowik

Other things of note (just fyi, I wrote this up prior to finding out that McGuire would likely be the starter...so all this is contingent upon Norvell having a decent amount of playing time).
QB Trenton Norvell, by virtue of having started since he was a redshirt freshman as well as doing pretty well overall, is on track to be fairly high up in the record books for QBs in a few areas.

His 370 yard passing performance against Coastal Carolina last season was good enough for 12th on the list of most passing yards in a game by a Western QB.

His 2,891 passing yard performance in 2014 was the 5th best, and was 2nd best for a 12-game season (#1, 2, and 4 were 13 games, #3 was Paul Singer’s 12-game 3k+ yard performance in 1988).
That same season, his 240.9 yard per game average was good enough for #5 on that list, and his 234.44 yards per game in 2015 puts that performance at #7, just ahead of Russ Michna’s Junior year (2002) at 233.6 yards per game.

For completions in a season, Norvell had 219 in 2014 (4th on the list) and 195 in 2013 (7th on the list).Norvell had the 7th best season for completion % in 2014 with .587, and the 8th best for pass efficiency rating with 139.2 (also in 2014). His 24 TDs in 2014 was good enough for #3 on that list.

On to career numbers:
Norvell is currently sitting at #2 on total yards with 7,141 (1,116 yards behind #1 Paul Singer at 8,257 yards)
At 216.4 yards per game currently, Norvell is the only Western QB to have recorded an average of over 200 yards per game (since this is average, he could technically move down this list if he doesn’t do well this next year), and as such, is #1 on this list currently.
Norvell’s 582 total completions is also at #2 behind Paul Singer’s 678 completions.
Norvell’s 1,061 total attempts is also at #2 behind Paul Singer’s 1,231 completions.
Norvell’s .548 completion percentage is currently at #8 on that list.
Norvell is currently #2 on the career TDs list with 53, behind Paul Singer (with 62).

So, to take the #1 spot in most of the total # rankings, this season Norvell needs:
1,117 total passing yards, 96 completions, 171 attempts, and 10 TDs

Also, it’s hard to estimate, considering we don’t know for sure how many games he’ll play (hopefully won’t be out due to injury, but could play more due to playoffs), but if, for example, he plays in 12 games (all of the regular season, no playoffs...as just an example), he needs to throw for a total of approximately 1,650 yards (137.5 yards per game) to stay above the #2 yards per game performance of Sam Clemons with 195.2 yards per game. 1,860 yards (155 yards per game) would mean that he would finish his career as the only Western QB to average over 200 yards per game throughout his career...a number that I think is even more impressive than the total numbers (yards, completions, TDs) since he was able to play (and start) for so long.

So, what are your thoughts on the QB situation? Think I'm probably correct?....way off base?

[letsgonecks]

Here are some videos on Birse. The first is practice and some scrimmage at ASU and obviously his best plays, but looks like he throws a good ball down field and over the middle.

He's obviously here to try and win the starting job and the coaches must have told him the position is open (whether or not it actually is). You'd think they must like him for the system and sold him on the opportunity. I say that because you wouldn't think he'd transfer to an FCS school with a projected started with more eligibility left than himself. Maybe he didn't receive another offer and this was his only shot???

No matter the situation, I like that we'll have guys working their asses off to be the starter and the depth incase of any injuries or poor play. Fingers crossed neither of those are the case.

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[sealhall74]

Training camp could be a little feistier than usual. They all seem pretty similar inside the pocket. My prediction is that the best scrambler (including ability to throw on the move) will prevail.

[ST_Lawson]

Training camp could be a little feistier than usual. They all seem pretty similar inside the pocket. My prediction is that the best scrambler (including ability to throw on the move) will prevail.

There's definitely going to be some serious competition at a few positions. QB and RB for sure (I've already written up much of my RB preview for next week)....not sure who else....we'll see.

[leatherneckcountry]

I think forthe system that fisher ran @ Richmond which I assume will be similiar here i feel McGuire ability to run will be the difference my only concern with him is his low arm angle and how many balls could get knocked down or worse tipped and picked.

[BobLovely]

Excellent write-up Scott! The significant differences in starting and back-up QBs are often intangible qualities such as confidence, leadership ability, in game competitiveness and overall athleticism versus measurables and data. As fans, we have to remember not to get too caught up in the data analytics and concentrate on who consistently wins games as the signal caller.

Bob

[vatusay]

I'm excited to see what McGuire can do in this offense. Have to feel for norvell, going down with an injury and the next man up seizing the opportunity. I'm glad he stayed with the program. A starting caliber back-up is a great asset.

[ST_Lawson]

Wasn't really sure where to mention it, since at this point, he'd kinda fall under a few different categories, but I didn't list incoming freshman #16 Clint Ratkovich - http://www.goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=14935

Ratkovich comes to us from Crete-Monee HS (home of Lance Lenoir and his brother, as well as 1st round NFL draft pick (Vikings) Laquon Treadwell). Ratkovich played QB, RB, WR, LB, and kick returner in HS, although I doubt he'll be quite as multi-dimensional for us. He's just listed as an "Athlete", which means that the coaches haven't really narrowed down where they want him yet. He could end up being something of a "specialist"...like a wildcat/running QB, or a WR who can throw (like what we'd sometimes do with Frisman Jackson, for those of you who remember when he played for us), or maybe he'll end up being good enough at one of those roles to turn into a full-time starter. It's hard to say at this point, but my guess is that he'll redshirt this year while the coaches and trainers get a chance to really try some things out with him...get him working on his speed if he's going to RB or WR...get him working on throwing strength and accuracy if he's going to be doing much of that, etc. See what areas he's strong enough to compete at the DI level in.

It could be really interesting seeing what kind of a player he's able to develop into.

[sealhall74]

Wasn't really sure where to mention it, since at this point, he'd kinda fall under a few different categories, but I didn't list incoming freshman #16 Clint Ratkovich - http://www.goleathernecks.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=14935

Ratkovich comes to us from Crete-Monee HS (home of Lance Lenoir and his brother, as well as 1st round NFL draft pick (Vikings) Laquon Treadwell). Ratkovich played QB, RB, WR, LB, and kick returner in HS, although I doubt he'll be quite as multi-dimensional for us. He's just listed as an "Athlete", which means that the coaches haven't really narrowed down where they want him yet. He could end up being something of a "specialist"...like a wildcat/running QB, or a WR who can throw (like what we'd sometimes do with Frisman Jackson, for those of you who remember when he played for us), or maybe he'll end up being good enough at one of those roles to turn into a full-time starter. It's hard to say at this point, but my guess is that he'll redshirt this year while the coaches and trainers get a chance to really try some things out with him...get him working on his speed if he's going to RB or WR...get him working on throwing strength and accuracy if he's going to be doing much of that, etc. See what areas he's strong enough to compete at the DI level in.

It could be really interesting seeing what kind of a player he's able to develop into.

If the Hudl 4.4 40 is legit, we may see him on the field this fall. If he has some hands, I would give him a shot as a return specialist. He definitely has the elusiveness from the video I saw but it hard to gauge the speed based on that. We have not had any solid kick return threats for at least the last 3 years, maybe longer than that.

[ST_Lawson]

Quick update on Ratkovich...he's now listed as a DB on the roster. So, I'll include him in my DB write-up later in the summer.